Ontario Final Call

Last update, it looked as though the OLP might have been heading for a bit of a comeback under Kathleen Wynne. Then the debate happened, and Hudak stopped the bleeding. A barrage of polls were released, up until the final hour before the publication ban, and the picture remains as unclear as it was when the election began. The numbers, as they stand:

OLP    34-39% [median 36.6] ( = ) 34-53 seats [median 44] (4)
OPC    35-40% [median 37.8] (0.9) 37-52 seats [median 44] (3)
ONDP   18-22% [median 20.5] (0.3) 15-23 seats [median 19] (1)
Green   2- 5% [median  4.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.4)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

There are two camps which the polls have split into:

IVR (EKOS and Forum): They have the Liberals ahead by a fair margin, possibly enough to eke out a majority government, and the NDP relatively low (below 20).

Online (Abacus, Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, Oracle): They have the PCs either tied are slightly ahead, but the NDP rather higher (near 25).

As it stands, I'm going to go with the online firms on the PCs and Liberals, and edge closer to the IVR firms for the NDP score. There are several reasons for this. Having supporters that actually vote is key in elections where turnout is getting lower and lower. The Tories traditionally have that edge here, and I envision it continuing. That said, this effect will be somewhat counteracted by the bonus that incumbent governments usually get, and the PCs will probably just barely edge the Liberals in votes.

Regarding the NDP, they caused an election that nobody wanted, and voters won't take too kindly to that. Add to the fact that Horwath has been criticised for being too right wing, and NDP supporters might not feel inclined to vote. The fly in the ointment is, these NDP supporters may instead vote Liberal to block the PCs. However, in such a close race, I believe the PCs themselves will be motivated to come out and try and win this thing.

As it stands, the ranges for either frontrunners fall just short of a majority, but it's not out of the question (just highly unlikely). Tomorrow evening promises to be extremely interesting.

For the first time since the start of this blog, Politically Uncorrect projects...A TIE?!

Ontario Liberals may earn 4th term

The polling volatility really hasn't improved much, although the gaps are starting to become tighter for all voters. The glaring difference is still Ipsos Reid, which continues to show large PC leads among likely voters. The end result is a very tight race, vote-wise, but of course the OLP has an advantage with distribution (changes from last projection):

OLP    33-40% [median 36.6] (3.7) 35-59 seats [median 48] (9)
OPC    33-40% [median 36.9] (1.6) 32-53 seats [median 41] (6)
ONDP   18-24% [median 20.8] (2.9) 11-22 seats [median 18] (3)
Green   2- 6% [median  4.3] (0.7)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.4] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

The ranges are still a bit large. They'll contract as the election draws nearer. Looking at broader trends, it looks like momentum was with Premier Wynne for a couple weeks, but recently Hudak seems to have stemmed the tide. Horwath is making no headway at all, and her election gambit is looking increasingly foolish.

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MINORITY, short 6.

After one week: it's a horserace!

Last week, Andrew Horwath of the NDP looked at the Liberal budget and decided they could not support this government any longer. As Tim Hudak and the PCs have long refused to support the Liberal minority, Premier Kathleen Wynne requested a dissolution, and an election was called.

I've waited a whole week to do this because the pre-campaign polls were giving zero clarity on the picture, and unfortunately, the campaign period polls are all over the place as well. The only thing I can say is this:

The Liberals or the PCs will either place first or second, plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With polls either registering anywhere between a 6 point Liberal lead and a 14 point PC lead (although I suspect Ipsos might have put out a bit of an outlier), the best guess right now is the weighted rolling poll average. And so (changes calculated from last election):

OLP    28-38% [median 32.9] (4.8) 22-52 seats [median 39] (14)
OPC    34-43% [median 38.5] (3.0) 35-66 seats [median 47] (10)
ONDP   21-26% [median 23.7] (1.0) 19-27 seats [median 21] ( 4)
Green   2- 6% [median  3.6] (0.7)  0- 1 seats [median  0] ( =)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.3] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] ( =)

After blowing a wide lead last election, one has to wonder how much good will Tim Hudak has left from his own party. Failure to win this time, with a Liberal government that is widely perceived as old, tired, and corrupt, will be fatal to his leadership. Tim Hudak only has one goal for June 12th: win 54 seats or more. He must convince centrist voters that the PCs are no longer the scary/nasty party.

Andrew Horwath's NDP is performing its best in the polls since the Rae victory, but has actually dropped back from their position last year of second or occasionally first. There is a sense that Ontario voters haven't fully forgiven them for the disastrous Rae government, but are almost ready to do so. Horwath must convince voters that they are a serious party that is ready to govern once again. Short of securing the official opposition, Horwath's tenure as leader may be threatened.

Kathleen Wynne's future is less clear. Since taking office, she has sought to distance herself from the McGuinty years, to mixed success. The lower hanging fruit for her will be to the left, in soft NDP voters. She must present her party as the only viable option for government. In other words, she needs to scare the centre away from the PCs and tell the left that the NDP can't win. If this election results in another hung parliament, she may attempt to hang on as premier as long as the OLP finishes either ahead of or only a couple seats behind the PCs.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects PC MINORITY, short 7.

Week 2 starts with a bang: why traditional left/right politics don't work in Quebec

Today's news centred around Pierre-Karl Peladeau, CEO and president of Quebecor Media and Sun Media. Generally seen as right-wing, Peladeau shocked the political world today by announcing his candidacy with the PQ, the same party closely tied to unions, the same party widely labelled as left.

But that's just it. In Quebec, left/right politics plays second fiddle to none other than the issue of sovereignty. That's why Lucien Bouchard was a federal Progressive Conservative minister turned leader of the Bloc turned PQ premier; why Francois Legault, a former Bouchard minister, is now leader of the CAQ; why Tom Mulcair, federal NDP leader, was a minister under Jean Charest's Quebec Liberals, who himself was leader of the federal PCs.

While, in theory, the PQ and the PLQ are a little left and right of centre, respectively, in practice they have been centrist. Their governing styles have not been much different, save for on matters of culture, language, and nationhood. It is for this reason that voters on both sides of the spectrum feel they belong to these parties, under the banner of either "sovereigntist" or "federalist."

It's also why the CAQ (or its predecessor the ADQ) never did too well, except in that massive protest vote in 2007. It's not because the Quebecois are any "more liberal" than the rest of Canada. The CAQ are, officially, soft nationalists; neither sovereigntist nor federalist. Their raison d'etre is economic conservatism, but economic conservatives have already found a home in either the PQ or the PLQ, and for the most part, they're content. If not, sovereignty or federalism serves as a force compelling them to stay, despite minor grievances.

We'll probably see by the Friday update whether today's news has impacted the parties' support. For today, a CROP poll this weekend confirms the close race. The only difference is a slightly higher number for the CAQ. And so:

PQ     34-40% [median 37.2] (0.9) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ    34-40% [median 37.2] (0.9) 44-63 seats [median 55] (=)
CAQ    13-17% [median 15.5] (1.6)  4- 8 seats [median  5] (=)
QS      6- 8% [median  7.3] (0.3)  2- 2 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.0] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.

NS final call: Liberals poised for majority

Over the past weekend, there was a noticeable shift of support away from the Liberals and to the PCs. That tide, however, as since been stemmed. The NDP also experienced a minor uptick.

While the number of undecideds is still huge, at about 20-25% of the population, it would take nearly all of that to break the NDP's way for them to retain government. Add to that fact that there's no eleventh hour Forum poll showing a suddenly much closer race, and Stephen McNeil looks set to be Premier-elect tomorrow evening:

NDP       27-31%  [median 28.9]  10-18 seats  [median 14]
Liberal   44-48%  [median 46.0]  27-35 seats  [median 31]
PC        22-26%  [median 23.7]   4- 8 seats  [median  6]
Green      0- 2%  [median  1.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Since the last update, the NDP has edged up 1.0pp and 4 seats, and the PCs have jumped 4.8pp and 2 seats. This was at the expense of the Liberals, who have lost 5.6pp and 6 seats. However, given the Liberals' massive lead over the middle portion of the campaign, it was much a case of too little, too late for Premier Dexter.

And so, Politically Uncorrect's final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 11.

And if, by yet another freak of Canadian politics, the NDP manage to retain the seat of government tomorrow, the Leafs will most certainly be the 2014 Stanley Cup Champions. You read it here first.

NS Libs support solidifies, lead by 23.7

Since last week, the Nova Scotia Liberals have moved up, the PCs have moved down, and the NDP has been stable. Abacus Data has joined CRA in the field, and the results are similar, with the small difference being Abacus has the PCs higher at the expense of the Liberals. Still, the Liberal lead remains massive in both polls.

The fly in the ointment is the high percentage (20-30%) of undecided voters that both firms are recording. This is the primary reason for somewhat large ranges in the projection, but the Liberal lead is large enough that a majority remains the only likely outcome.

NDP       26-31%  [median 27.9]   6-16 seats  [median 10]
Liberal   48-53%  [median 51.6]  31-41 seats  [median 37]
PC        17-22%  [median 18.9]   3- 5 seats  [median  4]
Green      0- 2%  [median  1.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The Liberal range extends further down than up, and the NDP extends higher up than down, because governments usually wind up with an incumbency bonus. However, I'm not expecting anything like BC or Alberta despite the high undecided figure because the situation is completely different. In Alberta, the opposition was inexperienced and a bit too far right for comfort. In BC, the opposition leader was not charismatic and his party was untrusted with the economy. Stephen McNeil is personally popular and his party has been in government before without disaster.

Therefore, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 23.

NS Liberals in pole position, lead by 22.0 over NDP

Nova Scotia dropped the writ over 2 weeks ago, so this has been a long time coming. CRA is doing daily tracking, but no other company is out polling, so updates will be a bit scarce. That said, there's no question about which party is ahead right now, despite the shaken confidence in opinion polling. Without further ado, here is the first Nova Scotia projection:

NDP       27-31%  [median 28.2]   9-18 seats  [median 12]
Liberal   48-52%  [median 50.2]  29-38 seats  [median 35]
PC        19-22%  [median 20.3]   2- 6 seats  [median  4]
Green      0- 2%  [median  0.8]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Rationale: The Greens have only fielded 16 candidates out of 51, and will be hard pressed to take more than 1% of the vote. I've penalised them accordingly. There are 7 independents, who will likely take about 0.5% of the vote. These figures will probably not move much.

The debate earlier tonight may move public opinion, but it'll have to be pretty drastic to stop Stephen McNeil's Liberals from winning for the first time since 1998. Currently, they have a > 99% chance of a majority, and there are only 13 days left for their opponents to whittle down their gigantic poll lead. Premier Darrell Dexter will need to hope for an even larger miracle than either Redford or Clark engineered, and PC leader Jamie Baillie may want to start working to just cling onto as many seats as possible.

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 19.

BC final call: weekend campaigning changes nothing

As it is past midnight, it should be safe to post the final BC projection update. From last day polls released by EKOS, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid, it can be inferred that Liberal momentum has stalled, and the NDP will win by a reasonable amount, if not the landslide originally imagined.

The final weighted rolling poll average gives the NDP a 7.0pp lead, enough to secure a comfortable majority:
New Democrat   43-47%  [median 45.4]  46-56 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        36-40%  [median 38.4]  27-37 seats  [median 34]  Green           6-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 1 seats  [median  0] 
Conservative    4- 7%  [median  5.4]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

For the minor points: the Greens should only have a realistic shot in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with Andrew Weaver. The Conservatives really are in no position to win any seats anymore, although they should place second in a couple interior ridings. I still see 2 independents winning, most likely Arthur Hadland in Peace River North and Vicki Huntington in Delta South.

As for the final call...
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

Post-debate: NDP lead drops to 8.0 7.4 7.9pp

Campaigns matter. Debates move votes. The two post-debate polls published today offer proof, as Forum and Insights West both show the lead narrowing by a large amount. The Greens are also ticking up in the weighted rolling average. A couple more polls would be nice to see if it's a blip or whether the debate actually moved support significantly. The new numbers certainly suggest that it's no longer a walk in the park for the NDP like at the writ drop.

EDIT: Angus Reid also published a poll showing a narrowing NDP lead into the single-digits. This does very little except swap one Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat as the poll is actually very much in line with the polling average already.

EDIT 2: Ipsos Reid finally published as well, also with a move toward the Liberals, although with a slightly larger NDP lead much like their last poll. This poll does nothing more than swap that Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat back.

New Democrat   41-47%  [median 44.5]  43-60 seats  [median 51]
Liberal        33-38%  [median 36.6]  23-40 seats  [median 32]
Green           8-11%  [median  9.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Conservative    6- 9%  [median  7.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 17.

Pre-debate: Liberals narrow race, but gap still wide

The final candidates list is out from Elections BC and it appears that the Greens and Conservatives will be fielding just under 60/85 candidates each. Accordingly, both parties will begin to be penalised in the polling average, as with missing candidates it is very hard to achieve the vote share that province-wide polls indicate. The "other" column has therefore grown, and so has the NDP (marginally), but the biggest beneficiary is the Liberals. The polling conducted this week features a rather large array of results so there is extra uncertainty in the numbers but the net effect is the Liberals moving up.

The actual numbers below:
New Democrat   43-49%  [median 47.1]  45-70 seats  [median 57]
Liberal        30-36%  [median 33.8]  15-38 seats  [median 26]
Conservative    7-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Green           7-10%  [median  8.4]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.

While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.

The writ drops: BC NDP start with huge 17.8pp lead

The election has officially begun and so Politically Uncorrect returns to the field of election prediction. The big questions being asked this round:

How big will the NDP majority be? (as it would take an act of God for them to lose, and maybe not even then)
Will the Greens and Conservatives be able to elect MLAs?
How many independents will be elected?

Right now, the best short answers to those questions are landslide, yes, and two, in that order.

Without further ado, the solid numbers:

New Democrat   45-49%  [median 46.8]  55-70 seats  [median 62]
Liberal        27-31%  [median 29.0]  12-28 seats  [median 20]
Conservative   10-13%  [median 11.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Green           9-12%  [median 10.5]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have some strength in the BC Interior and if their slate of candidates includes some credible names in the interior there are a few seats where they could factor in. I'm particularly looking at the BC Peace and the Southern Interior where they placed respectably last election.

The Greens also have potentially enough concentrated support on the South Island to have a shot, given Elizabeth May and Donald Galloway's performances there, but translating federal to provincial support is somewhat of an enigma.

There are 4 strong independent candidates with a chance of winning their seats but with NDP support as strong as it is now they may not all be elected. I'll need to see how good their personal followings are before tweaking the projection.

As for the main result, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 39.

Finally final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 4.0 over PC

Forum has decided to surprise us with their finally final numbers. It turns out what we thought was their "final" poll wasn't actually their last poll of the campaign. Forum also shows a narrowing of the gap between Wildrose and PC to just 2 points, which narrows the vote projection from a Wildrose lead of 6.0 all the way down to 4.0 points. It also has the effect of greatly increasing uncertainty because it created a huge divergence in the polling firms' conclusions. The election is now expected to look as follows:

Wildrose  37-43%  [median 39.2]  35-60 seats  [median 44]
PC        31-37%  [median 35.2]  21-46 seats  [median 37]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 10.7]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Wildrose is now forecast to have a median at exactly the majority marker, with a range that extends well below. The PCs range now extends all the way up to 46 seats, which gives them some hope of retaining the seat of government, however slim it may be. Forum is standing alone out of all the polling firms out there, but if indeed this is true and there is a last-minute shift, things could be VERY messy tomorrow evening. The 6 seats the NDP and Liberals are projected to win will become very important, and could prove instrumental in deciding who forms government.

For now, Politically Uncorrect will continue to project a Wildrose MAJORITY of 1 SEAT. Let it be stressed, however, that confidence is now extremely low, once again vindicating the use of ranges to project election results.

Final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 6.0 over PC

As the campaign drew to a close, Danielle Smith's party took a bit of a hit over controversial remarks by her candidates. The PCs tried desperately to turn the focus onto that, but it was too little too late, and the Wildrose Party are expected to end the PC dynasty of 41 years tomorrow. The following is the final projection what Alberta is expected to look like come Monday evening.

Wildrose  39-43%  [median 40.1]  43-60 seats  [median 48]
PC        31-35%  [median 34.1]  21-38 seats  [median 33]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 11.1]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The majority marker in the 87-seat house is 44 seats. As can be seen, Wildrose's last-week woes have trended their low-range to just below a majority, but even at 43 seats they should easily form government because there likely will be a couple right-wing PCs who will cross the floor to be part of a Wildrose government. Also, since the vast majority of their range is at or above a majority, this is not a difficult call for Politically Uncorrect. There could be one thorn in the side: Liberal and NDP voters migrating en masse at the ballot box to the PCs to keep Wildrose out. Polls have not shown this but it is still a possibility to watch out for.


Nevertheless, Politically Uncorrect's final call is a Wildrose MAJORITY of 9.

BC by-elections

There are two by-elections taking place today and I thought I'd get my projections in despite hesitating to make any predictions so far. In BC's political culture and history, by-elections are generally used by voters to vent against the incumbent government; therefore, in the last 4 decades only 2 by-elections have been won by the government. From what I see of it, and with no local polling to work with, here are the Politically Uncorrect projections:

Port Moody-Coquitlam
Former mayor Joe Trasolini is popular in this riding and is the star candidate for the NDP. Given the Liberals' (fielding Dennis Marsden) unpopularity this should be a cakewalk for Trasolini. The BC Conservatives (running Christine Clarke) aren't expected to do well in this type of riding unless the Liberal vote really craters but Marsden appears to be holding his own.
Politically Uncorrect projects:

Liberal      (25-35%) LOSS
New Democrat (45-55%) GAIN

Conservative (15-25%)

Chilliwack-Hope
This one is very interesting. The federal NDP ran Gwen O'Mahoney in the federal election in this area and she earned a very respectable 33% for them in this strongly conservative riding. The BCNDP are going with the same candidate and she's expected to hold on to most of that vote. The Liberals, fearful of an exodus to the right, nominated Laurie Throness, adviser and friend of former federal Conservative MP for the region, Chuck Strahl. However, that doesn't seem to have helped as the Conservatives have a star candidate in criminologist John Martin, who, according to most reports, have siphoned off a (potentially very) large chunk of the Liberal vote. Basically anything result could be returned in this riding tomorrow evening and the order of the parties could even be wrong. The Liberals can hold, the Tories can steal, and the Dippers could come up the middle if the centre-right vote splits almost exactly in half. It all depends on voter turnout and each party's GOTV strength.
Politically Uncorrect (reluctantly) projects:

Liberal      (30-40%) HOLD

New Democrat (25-35%)

Conservative (30-40%)

What the results will say about each party is up in the air, since by-elections are normally not very good indicators of province-wide mood. However, there are clear best and worst case scenarios for each party.

For the Liberals: Holding C-H and finishing at the upper end of that range in PM-C would really be a boon for Christy Clark and her team. On the other hand, if they finish third in C-H and are threatened by the Tories in PM-C then it could accelerate the exodus of their supporters to the Tories.

For the NDP: They are the only team that has any hope of winning both contests and obviously that would be their best cast scenario. On the other hand, if the Liberals even come close in PM-C, and they finish a distant third in C-H, it could mean that their base still isn't motivated enough to vote.

For the Conservatives: A victory in C-H would really cement their legitimacy as a major player, but even two strong showings (say, average vote of 25%) would do the trick. On the other hand, if they finish third in both ridings, it would mean they lack both the organisation and readiness for the big leagues, especially after the rather unwisely hyped-up expectations in Chilliwack-Hope.

Wildrose lead 8.6pp, time running out for PC

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  39-45%  [median 41.4]  48-61 seats  [median 53]
PC        29-35%  [median 32.8]  20-35 seats  [median 29]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.4]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-12%  [median 10.6]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 21.

Wildrose expands lead to 9.7, solidly in majority territory

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  40-45%  [median 41.8]  52-60 seats  [median 55]
PC        28-34%  [median 32.0]  20-29 seats  [median 26]
NDP       10-12%  [median 10.8]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal   10-15%  [median 11.4]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.8]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 23.

Wildrose by 5.6 over PC, pulling even further ahead?

As the Alberta election is well underway, it is high time for the first seat projection. I was going to do this on Sunday, but polling volatility was far too great. Since then a few new polls have been released confirming the actual position. From now on the projections will be updated on Sunday as the election is due Monday the 23rd.

At the start of the campaign, things were neck and neck with the PCs perhaps with a slight lead. Then a few polls came along indicating a large Wildrose lead. This threw the polling average into a bit of disarray but since then the Wildrose lead has consolidated in 4 separate polls so I feel comfortable with the numbers. Personally, though, I must say that I am not happy with them since Wildrose's economic stance is far too free-market for my liking.

Let's get right to it:
Wildrose  36-41%  [median 38.5]  38-52 seats  [median 45]
PC        30-35%  [median 32.9]  30-38 seats  [median 35]
NDP       11-13%  [median 11.8]   3- 7 seats  [median  5] 
Liberal   11-15%  [median 12.6]   0- 7 seats  [median  2]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  2.3]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect currently projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 3.

That said, once the old polls drop off, Wildrose could be in an even better position. We'll see what week two of the campaign bears. Things are not written in stone. As former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously noted, "a week is a long time in politics."

Alberta votes, and a little bit of catchup

As this blog hasn't been posted on since early March, there have been interesting bits of electoral news which I have missed out on. Last Saturday, Hong Kong chose a new Chief Executive in C. Y. Leung, and the Australian State of Queensland had an election where the governing Australian Labor Party was wiped out by the conservative Liberal National Party. Closer to home, two provincial by-elections were called for April 19 in Port Moody—Coquitlam and Chilliwack—Hope.

More on that later, but now, the big electoral news: the writ has been dropped in Alberta for April 23, shaping up the most exciting election Alberta has seen since 1993. This election pits the titan 41-year-old Progressive Conservative government against the upstart Wildrose Party, which has surged in the polls since former Premier Ed Stelmach's tenure.

Party profiles:

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE

The PCs have always been able to reinvent themselves whenever their leadership grew stale. That's the secret of their prolonged electoral success. With Ed Stelmach unable to recover in popularity, the PCs chose a new leader in Alison Redford. She is solidly in the centrist camp of the party, and so has moved the party decidedly leftward. Will Alison Redford and the PCs be able to right the ship and hold on to power, or will the public deem them too stale after 41 years?

WILDROSE PARTY

They are the main challenger to the PCs, and the first serious competition since the 1993 Liberals. They are running on a hard free market platform, coupled with a libertarian social stance. Wildrose is led by the charismatic Danielle Smith, who has captured public imagination since becoming leader. Will Wildrose's support hold up as desire for change boils, or will disaffected PCs return to the PC fold as serious scrutiny is directed toward Wildrose policies? Will their hard right economics scare some Liberals into the PC fold, as Alison Redford hopes?

LIBERAL PARTY

The Alberta Liberals actually managed a respectable result last election, with over 26% of the vote. They are the Official Opposition, and the fact that they are led by a former PC also should help them. However, their polling numbers have dropped by half into the low teens. Now, they are in a struggle for survival, as hanging on to even one of their 9 urban seats could be a challenge. Can Raj Sherman save his party, or will the PCs move to the centre squeeze out the party's last life?

NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Alberta is not typically friendly to the socialist cause, but the NDP have established a toehold in Edmonton both federally and provincially. Their leader, Brian Mason, is the only one to have fought in the last election. Their support, concentrated and more solid than that of the Liberals, could help them overtake the Liberals as the top left-of-centre choice in Alberta, in seats if not in votes. Can the NDP benefit from an increasingly fractured political scene in Edmonton?

ALBERTA PARTY

A new player, this party was formed by Liberals frustrated at their party's lack of momentum against the PC juggernaut. The party only has one MLA in Dave Taylor, who crossed over from the Liberals. The Alberta Party has not been able to capture public attention, and in some polls is too weak to even register. Will they be able to hang on to their lone seat, or will their lack of organisation send them packing to the political fringe?

The first seat projection for the election will be made once the polling average is up and running.

The NDP pleads no contest

That's the story the polls have been telling us about the Saskatchewan provincial election next Monday. Brad Wall of the Saskatchewan Party is an extremely popular incumbent premier riding on the coattails of a hot economy and sustained growth. That the SP is going to win a massive majority on Monday is undisputed. The real question is how many of the province's 58 seats can the NDP reasonably expect to walk away with. Turnout is going to be a major player this election.

Will favourable poll numbers make Sask. Party supporters complacent, and help the NDP keep a few more seats than they would otherwise? Or will psychologically downbeat NDP supporters opt to stay home, exacerbating the SP landslide? Usually in these cases, the party with the big lead sees a late narrowing and a drop in turnout works against them.

The other question is: how low can the Liberal Party go? With only 9 candidates this election cycle, the Liberal is closer to the Western Independence Party than the Green Party. While the polls expects them to take 1.5% of the vote, even 1% could prove difficult (I've tweaked the vote projection to reflect this). It seems the Sask. Party has taken over all of their former support, and the need for a Liberal Party in Saskatchewan could very well be called into doubt.

With that, here is what is most likely the final (and only) projection for the Saskatchewan election.

SP: 60-67%, 44-52 seats; median 63.0%, 46 seats
NDP: 27-34%, 6-14 seats; median 31.5%, 12 seats
Green: 3-5%, 0 seats; median 3.5%, 0 seats
Other: 0-3%, 0 seats; median 2.0%, 0 seats

There are only 3 recent polls for me to work with, so the confidence range is larger than I'd like, but in this case the outcome is nowhere near changeable.

To conclude, Politically Uncorrect projects a SASK. PARTY LANDSLIDE.

Newfoundland and Yukon vote

Just managing to barely squeak in the final call before the polls close in Newfoundland and Labrador later this evening. The result, like PEI, is pretty much a foregone conclusion. The PCs are polling in the mid-50's and we can expect to see them there with anywhere from 38-44 of the 48 seats (median 41). The NDP appears poised to form the Official Opposition for the first time ever, having overtaken the Liberals in polling. They should take anywhere between 2-8 seats (median 5), which is actually a very big range given the absolute number of seats. This is to be expected with such a huge jump in the polls, and the rather large variations being reported in the St. John's region. The Liberals should take anywhere between 1-4 seats (median 2).

Politically Uncorrect projects a PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE LANDSLIDE.

Onto the Yukon:
There, the conservative Yukon Party is, like the NL PCs, seeking a third term in office. They were polling dismally last year, but after a leadership change appear to have revived their fortunes. Meanwhile, the NDP are, as they have been all over Canada, on the rise. Both these parties are near the mid-upper 30s, and it appears to be anybody's guess as to who will win tonight. The Liberal Party, at least according to the polls, are a ways behind, but not completely out of it yet. That said, the pollster for the Yukon, DataPath Systems, doesn't exactly boast a great track record. However, to take things at face value, the NDP and Yukon Party appear tied at the moment with the incumbency bonus and the likely voters advantage both going to the Yukon Party. It therefore would appear that the odds are slightly more favourable than not for the Yukon Party to win tonight. Yukon Party 8-12 (10), NDP 5-9 (7), Liberal 0-4 (2).

Politically Uncorrect will go on the record to project the YUKON PARTY MAJORITY, but this is more just for fun.