New Brunswick votes

New Brunswick is going to the polls today, and I've been too busy to follow too closely, but I can't resist making a call anyway. Premier David Alward's Progressive Conservatives are the incumbent government, having won the last election in 2010 by a landslide with 49% of the vote and 42/55 seats. They're seeking re-election to avoid being only the second NB government in history to be relegated to a single term. The opposition Liberals, led by rookie leader Brian Gallant, are seeking to redeem themselves. Meanwhile, Dominic Cardy took over an NDP holding 0 seats and are hoping to change that. On the fringe are the Green Party, and the People's Alliance which I've lumped in with the "Others."

For most of the campaign, it looked as though Brian Gallant was cruising to a landslide victory in a new, streamlined legislature of 49 seats. Their poll lead was often 20+ points, and nothing seemed to shake it. In the final week, controversy over shale gas, fracking, and abortion saw the Liberal lead drop to about 10, but it seemed they were on track for victory nonetheless.

As this was happening, however, Brian Gallant gave an interview with the CBC where he fudged the figures to his own party's tax policy. Subsequently, in a disastrous retake of the interview, the CBC (known to be Liberal-friendly) grilled Gallant mercilessly, generating a massive amount of bad press. Forum then released an eleventh hour poll just last night showing a dead tie, and if they are right, this massive blunder could potentially have been the turning point of the entire election.

And so, the raw numbers:
NBPC   38-43% [median 41.0]  20-30 seats [median 26]
NBLP   39-44% [median 41.6]  19-29 seats [median 23]
NBNDP   9-13% [median 10.8]   0- 1 seats [median  0]
Green   4- 7% [median  5.0]   0- 0 seats [median  0]
Other   0- 3% [median  1.6]   0- 0 seats [median  0]

Whatever the result, this promises to be a very interesting night, with both parties able to form government. It really looks like it's too close to call. However, for the sake of integrity...

The Politically Uncorrect final call: PC MAJORITY of 3.

Ontario Final Call

Last update, it looked as though the OLP might have been heading for a bit of a comeback under Kathleen Wynne. Then the debate happened, and Hudak stopped the bleeding. A barrage of polls were released, up until the final hour before the publication ban, and the picture remains as unclear as it was when the election began. The numbers, as they stand:

OLP    34-39% [median 36.6] ( = ) 34-53 seats [median 44] (4)
OPC    35-40% [median 37.8] (0.9) 37-52 seats [median 44] (3)
ONDP   18-22% [median 20.5] (0.3) 15-23 seats [median 19] (1)
Green   2- 5% [median  4.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.4)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

There are two camps which the polls have split into:

IVR (EKOS and Forum): They have the Liberals ahead by a fair margin, possibly enough to eke out a majority government, and the NDP relatively low (below 20).

Online (Abacus, Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, Oracle): They have the PCs either tied are slightly ahead, but the NDP rather higher (near 25).

As it stands, I'm going to go with the online firms on the PCs and Liberals, and edge closer to the IVR firms for the NDP score. There are several reasons for this. Having supporters that actually vote is key in elections where turnout is getting lower and lower. The Tories traditionally have that edge here, and I envision it continuing. That said, this effect will be somewhat counteracted by the bonus that incumbent governments usually get, and the PCs will probably just barely edge the Liberals in votes.

Regarding the NDP, they caused an election that nobody wanted, and voters won't take too kindly to that. Add to the fact that Horwath has been criticised for being too right wing, and NDP supporters might not feel inclined to vote. The fly in the ointment is, these NDP supporters may instead vote Liberal to block the PCs. However, in such a close race, I believe the PCs themselves will be motivated to come out and try and win this thing.

As it stands, the ranges for either frontrunners fall just short of a majority, but it's not out of the question (just highly unlikely). Tomorrow evening promises to be extremely interesting.

For the first time since the start of this blog, Politically Uncorrect projects...A TIE?!

Ontario Liberals may earn 4th term

The polling volatility really hasn't improved much, although the gaps are starting to become tighter for all voters. The glaring difference is still Ipsos Reid, which continues to show large PC leads among likely voters. The end result is a very tight race, vote-wise, but of course the OLP has an advantage with distribution (changes from last projection):

OLP    33-40% [median 36.6] (3.7) 35-59 seats [median 48] (9)
OPC    33-40% [median 36.9] (1.6) 32-53 seats [median 41] (6)
ONDP   18-24% [median 20.8] (2.9) 11-22 seats [median 18] (3)
Green   2- 6% [median  4.3] (0.7)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.4] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

The ranges are still a bit large. They'll contract as the election draws nearer. Looking at broader trends, it looks like momentum was with Premier Wynne for a couple weeks, but recently Hudak seems to have stemmed the tide. Horwath is making no headway at all, and her election gambit is looking increasingly foolish.

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MINORITY, short 6.

After one week: it's a horserace!

Last week, Andrew Horwath of the NDP looked at the Liberal budget and decided they could not support this government any longer. As Tim Hudak and the PCs have long refused to support the Liberal minority, Premier Kathleen Wynne requested a dissolution, and an election was called.

I've waited a whole week to do this because the pre-campaign polls were giving zero clarity on the picture, and unfortunately, the campaign period polls are all over the place as well. The only thing I can say is this:

The Liberals or the PCs will either place first or second, plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With polls either registering anywhere between a 6 point Liberal lead and a 14 point PC lead (although I suspect Ipsos might have put out a bit of an outlier), the best guess right now is the weighted rolling poll average. And so (changes calculated from last election):

OLP    28-38% [median 32.9] (4.8) 22-52 seats [median 39] (14)
OPC    34-43% [median 38.5] (3.0) 35-66 seats [median 47] (10)
ONDP   21-26% [median 23.7] (1.0) 19-27 seats [median 21] ( 4)
Green   2- 6% [median  3.6] (0.7)  0- 1 seats [median  0] ( =)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.3] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] ( =)

After blowing a wide lead last election, one has to wonder how much good will Tim Hudak has left from his own party. Failure to win this time, with a Liberal government that is widely perceived as old, tired, and corrupt, will be fatal to his leadership. Tim Hudak only has one goal for June 12th: win 54 seats or more. He must convince centrist voters that the PCs are no longer the scary/nasty party.

Andrew Horwath's NDP is performing its best in the polls since the Rae victory, but has actually dropped back from their position last year of second or occasionally first. There is a sense that Ontario voters haven't fully forgiven them for the disastrous Rae government, but are almost ready to do so. Horwath must convince voters that they are a serious party that is ready to govern once again. Short of securing the official opposition, Horwath's tenure as leader may be threatened.

Kathleen Wynne's future is less clear. Since taking office, she has sought to distance herself from the McGuinty years, to mixed success. The lower hanging fruit for her will be to the left, in soft NDP voters. She must present her party as the only viable option for government. In other words, she needs to scare the centre away from the PCs and tell the left that the NDP can't win. If this election results in another hung parliament, she may attempt to hang on as premier as long as the OLP finishes either ahead of or only a couple seats behind the PCs.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects PC MINORITY, short 7.

It's a tie! Or is it?

End of week update. I'd like to hold to a Friday and Monday posting schedule this election cycle, unless a huge slew/barrage of polls show up.

Anyway, a Forum poll came out yesterday and moved the projection a little. The regional breakdowns are a little odd, but not totally out of line. Good poll for the PLQ.

The new numbers (changes in brackets, red means loss):
PQ     35-41% [median 38.1] (0.3) 56-75 seats [median 63] (2)
PLQ    35-41% [median 38.1] (2.4) 43-62 seats [median 55] (4)
CAQ    12-16% [median 13.9] (1.6)  3- 7 seats [median  5] (2)
QS      6- 8% [median  7.0] (0.5)  2- 2 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.5)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  1.0] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Even with a tie, the PQ has a much better chance of winning the most seats. Again, this is due to the Liberals piling up useless majorities in Anglo Montreal ridings. However, there are a lot of close races elsewhere, and as the seat ranges demonstrate, almost anything can happen. Also, there is a riding where the independent candidate, an incumbent who left the PLQ, who may be a factor in her seat. That said, currently I believe she is not personally popular enough to hang on over the party-backed candidates.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects a razor thin PQ MAJORITY of 1.

Ready, set, go! Quebec votes on April 7

Eighteen months into her minority mandate, Pauline Marois (PQ) has pulled the plug on her own government in an attempt to secure a majority, on the back of her "secular charter" bill. While English Canada spurned this controversial (some have called it xenophobic) piece of legislation, it became increasingly popular among francophones, which, unsurprisingly, are the key demographic of Quebec elections.

A review of the parties:
PQ - Sovereigntist, centre-left party (Pauline Marois)
PLQ - Federalist, centrist party (Philippe Couillard)
CAQ - Nationalist, centre-right party (Francois Legault)
QS - Sovereigntist, far left party (Francoise David & Andres Fontecilla)
ON - Splinter party from the PQ (Sol Zanetti)
PVQ - Green  (Alex Tyrrell)

The first numbers from the weighted rolling poll average:
PQ     35-40%  [median 37.8]  56-78 seats  [median 65]
PLQ    33-38%  [median 35.7]  38-60 seats  [median 51]
CAQ    14-17%  [median 15.5]   5- 9 seats  [median  7]
QS      7- 9%  [median  7.5]   2- 2 seats  [median  2]
ON      0- 2%  [median  1.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
PVQ     0- 2%  [median  1.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other   0- 2%  [median  0.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The PQ has a slight electoral advantage due to the francophone vote, as mentioned above. On the other hand, the Liberals pile up massive (and useless) majorities in the anglophone Montreal constituencies.

With this reasoning, Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MAJORITY of 5.

#RealBulls***

This here, the new Trudeau ad, is absolute shite. It claims that the average income in Canada has only increased 15% over the last 30 years. That is patently untrue. The inflation adjusted figures are 60,200 in 1983 and 76,000 in 2013. That is a 26% growth. However, the chart on the ad uses 1981 and 2011. Why? Because 1981 is close to a local maximum (63,100) and 2011 (75,000) is lower than the most current figures. Even when fiddling with the years like that, the growth is 19%, not 15%.

The ad also compares income to GDP. While accurate in his claim that real GDP has more or less doubled over the past 30 years, this is comparing apples to oranges. Of course GDP has grown at a rate greater than average income, largely because the population of Canada has also grown, from around 25 million then to 35 million now.

The only passable comparison that can be made is with per capita GDP, which has grown at a much more sedate pace over the past 30 years: from about 24,000 to 36,000 (or about 50%). Even then, this figure is going to rise much faster than average income because a lot of economic growth is in increased trade. That will inflate GDP growth above income because that money doesn’t flow through to individuals. You would think the leader of a major federal party would at least attempt to understand basic economics, but apparently not.

If this type of misrepresentation of facts and lack of understanding for economics is propagated by the leader of the party, the Liberals have no business telling us that the Conservatives are doing wrong by Canadians.

Also, there is no point at all for going back 30 years. If the Liberals were trying to convey that the Conservatives are bad for the economy and that the Liberals would do better, that effort fell flat on its face. That is because, for 17 of those 30 years, it was the Liberals who were in power. And also because both numbers are, actually, still going up. There's a "rah rah!" for the Canadian economy, but nothing more.

More to the point is, the Conservatives have been in office since 2006, and income has grown 5.4% since then, despite a global financial crisis. By contrast, the United States median income dropped 5.2% during that period.

Anybody who bothers to stop and think would know what complete bollocks this is. It screams incompetence and irrelevance. But, hey, anything to win a couple votes from the ignoramuses out there, eh? Because that's who you want supporting your party!

Oh, and parting shot: this ad still hasn't told us what your priorities are, Justin. Maybe the party of the mushy middle is just that. Mushy.

NS final call: Liberals poised for majority

Over the past weekend, there was a noticeable shift of support away from the Liberals and to the PCs. That tide, however, as since been stemmed. The NDP also experienced a minor uptick.

While the number of undecideds is still huge, at about 20-25% of the population, it would take nearly all of that to break the NDP's way for them to retain government. Add to that fact that there's no eleventh hour Forum poll showing a suddenly much closer race, and Stephen McNeil looks set to be Premier-elect tomorrow evening:

NDP       27-31%  [median 28.9]  10-18 seats  [median 14]
Liberal   44-48%  [median 46.0]  27-35 seats  [median 31]
PC        22-26%  [median 23.7]   4- 8 seats  [median  6]
Green      0- 2%  [median  1.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Since the last update, the NDP has edged up 1.0pp and 4 seats, and the PCs have jumped 4.8pp and 2 seats. This was at the expense of the Liberals, who have lost 5.6pp and 6 seats. However, given the Liberals' massive lead over the middle portion of the campaign, it was much a case of too little, too late for Premier Dexter.

And so, Politically Uncorrect's final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 11.

And if, by yet another freak of Canadian politics, the NDP manage to retain the seat of government tomorrow, the Leafs will most certainly be the 2014 Stanley Cup Champions. You read it here first.

NS Libs support solidifies, lead by 23.7

Since last week, the Nova Scotia Liberals have moved up, the PCs have moved down, and the NDP has been stable. Abacus Data has joined CRA in the field, and the results are similar, with the small difference being Abacus has the PCs higher at the expense of the Liberals. Still, the Liberal lead remains massive in both polls.

The fly in the ointment is the high percentage (20-30%) of undecided voters that both firms are recording. This is the primary reason for somewhat large ranges in the projection, but the Liberal lead is large enough that a majority remains the only likely outcome.

NDP       26-31%  [median 27.9]   6-16 seats  [median 10]
Liberal   48-53%  [median 51.6]  31-41 seats  [median 37]
PC        17-22%  [median 18.9]   3- 5 seats  [median  4]
Green      0- 2%  [median  1.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The Liberal range extends further down than up, and the NDP extends higher up than down, because governments usually wind up with an incumbency bonus. However, I'm not expecting anything like BC or Alberta despite the high undecided figure because the situation is completely different. In Alberta, the opposition was inexperienced and a bit too far right for comfort. In BC, the opposition leader was not charismatic and his party was untrusted with the economy. Stephen McNeil is personally popular and his party has been in government before without disaster.

Therefore, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 23.

NS Liberals in pole position, lead by 22.0 over NDP

Nova Scotia dropped the writ over 2 weeks ago, so this has been a long time coming. CRA is doing daily tracking, but no other company is out polling, so updates will be a bit scarce. That said, there's no question about which party is ahead right now, despite the shaken confidence in opinion polling. Without further ado, here is the first Nova Scotia projection:

NDP       27-31%  [median 28.2]   9-18 seats  [median 12]
Liberal   48-52%  [median 50.2]  29-38 seats  [median 35]
PC        19-22%  [median 20.3]   2- 6 seats  [median  4]
Green      0- 2%  [median  0.8]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Rationale: The Greens have only fielded 16 candidates out of 51, and will be hard pressed to take more than 1% of the vote. I've penalised them accordingly. There are 7 independents, who will likely take about 0.5% of the vote. These figures will probably not move much.

The debate earlier tonight may move public opinion, but it'll have to be pretty drastic to stop Stephen McNeil's Liberals from winning for the first time since 1998. Currently, they have a > 99% chance of a majority, and there are only 13 days left for their opponents to whittle down their gigantic poll lead. Premier Darrell Dexter will need to hope for an even larger miracle than either Redford or Clark engineered, and PC leader Jamie Baillie may want to start working to just cling onto as many seats as possible.

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 19.

BC final call: weekend campaigning changes nothing

As it is past midnight, it should be safe to post the final BC projection update. From last day polls released by EKOS, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid, it can be inferred that Liberal momentum has stalled, and the NDP will win by a reasonable amount, if not the landslide originally imagined.

The final weighted rolling poll average gives the NDP a 7.0pp lead, enough to secure a comfortable majority:
New Democrat   43-47%  [median 45.4]  46-56 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        36-40%  [median 38.4]  27-37 seats  [median 34]  Green           6-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 1 seats  [median  0] 
Conservative    4- 7%  [median  5.4]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

For the minor points: the Greens should only have a realistic shot in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with Andrew Weaver. The Conservatives really are in no position to win any seats anymore, although they should place second in a couple interior ridings. I still see 2 independents winning, most likely Arthur Hadland in Peace River North and Vicki Huntington in Delta South.

As for the final call...
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

Post-debate: NDP lead drops to 8.0 7.4 7.9pp

Campaigns matter. Debates move votes. The two post-debate polls published today offer proof, as Forum and Insights West both show the lead narrowing by a large amount. The Greens are also ticking up in the weighted rolling average. A couple more polls would be nice to see if it's a blip or whether the debate actually moved support significantly. The new numbers certainly suggest that it's no longer a walk in the park for the NDP like at the writ drop.

EDIT: Angus Reid also published a poll showing a narrowing NDP lead into the single-digits. This does very little except swap one Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat as the poll is actually very much in line with the polling average already.

EDIT 2: Ipsos Reid finally published as well, also with a move toward the Liberals, although with a slightly larger NDP lead much like their last poll. This poll does nothing more than swap that Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat back.

New Democrat   41-47%  [median 44.5]  43-60 seats  [median 51]
Liberal        33-38%  [median 36.6]  23-40 seats  [median 32]
Green           8-11%  [median  9.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Conservative    6- 9%  [median  7.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 17.

Pre-debate: Liberals narrow race, but gap still wide

The final candidates list is out from Elections BC and it appears that the Greens and Conservatives will be fielding just under 60/85 candidates each. Accordingly, both parties will begin to be penalised in the polling average, as with missing candidates it is very hard to achieve the vote share that province-wide polls indicate. The "other" column has therefore grown, and so has the NDP (marginally), but the biggest beneficiary is the Liberals. The polling conducted this week features a rather large array of results so there is extra uncertainty in the numbers but the net effect is the Liberals moving up.

The actual numbers below:
New Democrat   43-49%  [median 47.1]  45-70 seats  [median 57]
Liberal        30-36%  [median 33.8]  15-38 seats  [median 26]
Conservative    7-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Green           7-10%  [median  8.4]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.

While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.

The writ drops: BC NDP start with huge 17.8pp lead

The election has officially begun and so Politically Uncorrect returns to the field of election prediction. The big questions being asked this round:

How big will the NDP majority be? (as it would take an act of God for them to lose, and maybe not even then)
Will the Greens and Conservatives be able to elect MLAs?
How many independents will be elected?

Right now, the best short answers to those questions are landslide, yes, and two, in that order.

Without further ado, the solid numbers:

New Democrat   45-49%  [median 46.8]  55-70 seats  [median 62]
Liberal        27-31%  [median 29.0]  12-28 seats  [median 20]
Conservative   10-13%  [median 11.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Green           9-12%  [median 10.5]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have some strength in the BC Interior and if their slate of candidates includes some credible names in the interior there are a few seats where they could factor in. I'm particularly looking at the BC Peace and the Southern Interior where they placed respectably last election.

The Greens also have potentially enough concentrated support on the South Island to have a shot, given Elizabeth May and Donald Galloway's performances there, but translating federal to provincial support is somewhat of an enigma.

There are 4 strong independent candidates with a chance of winning their seats but with NDP support as strong as it is now they may not all be elected. I'll need to see how good their personal followings are before tweaking the projection.

As for the main result, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 39.

First Quebec projection: PQ leads by 3.5

The Quebec election was actually called some 2 weeks ago, but a dearth of polling has left the projection somewhat delayed. I must clarify that while my spreadsheet objectively projects the vote, I subjectively predict the seats (and adjust the vote % according to likelihood to vote etc.).

A little brief about Quebec politics:

The Liberals (PLQ) are the long-standing federalist option. They're fairly centrist most of the time, and have been the dominant party recently, winning every election but one since the 1995 referendum. They are led by Jean Charest, has been described as having 9 lives. Charest has been premier for 9 years and is certainly the veteran, having survived the ADQ surge of 2007 (which resulted in a minority house with an ADQ opposition).

The Parti Québécois (PQ) are their main separatist competition. They've fought every election since 1970 and have been either government or official opposition in all but two (1970 and 2007). They are led by Pauline Marois. Supporters have nicknamed her la dame de béton (The Concrete Lady) after she survived a party revolt last year.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is a new conservative movement founded by former PQ minister François Legault, who has apparently renounced separation (at least for 10 years). They sit at a strong third, replacing the ADQ late last year. There is historical precedent for a surge in centre-right support (most notably by their predecessors in 2007), and Legault does hold the highest approval rating of all 3 leaders, so this could become interesting.

The Québec Solidaire (QS) is a left or even far-left separatist party "represented" (they don't have leaders) by Amir Khadir and Françoise David. They currently have 1 seat in the National Assembly, and are in the hunt for a second. Their stance on the political spectrum means that they compete for support with the PQ, which limits their competitiveness given their relative lack of establishment.

There are also the Green Party (PVQ) and Option Nationale (ON). Even though ON has one MNA (a defector from the PQ), both parties are not expected to challenge for seats.

And now, the first set of numbers:

Party   Low  Votes(%)  High    Low  Seats  High
PLQ     30     32.2     35     29     43     55
PQ      33     35.7     38     46     63     76
CAQ     21     24.1     27     12     18     31
QS       4      5.5      7      1      1      2
PVQ      1      1.5      2
ON       0      0.5      1
Other    0      0.6      1

The PQ actually manages to squeeze a majority (albeit of only 1 seat) out of this because they have a much more efficient vote distribution. The Liberals pile up massive majorities in the anglophone vote and they usually don't matter very much except on the West Island. So there you have it.

Finally final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 4.0 over PC

Forum has decided to surprise us with their finally final numbers. It turns out what we thought was their "final" poll wasn't actually their last poll of the campaign. Forum also shows a narrowing of the gap between Wildrose and PC to just 2 points, which narrows the vote projection from a Wildrose lead of 6.0 all the way down to 4.0 points. It also has the effect of greatly increasing uncertainty because it created a huge divergence in the polling firms' conclusions. The election is now expected to look as follows:

Wildrose  37-43%  [median 39.2]  35-60 seats  [median 44]
PC        31-37%  [median 35.2]  21-46 seats  [median 37]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 10.7]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Wildrose is now forecast to have a median at exactly the majority marker, with a range that extends well below. The PCs range now extends all the way up to 46 seats, which gives them some hope of retaining the seat of government, however slim it may be. Forum is standing alone out of all the polling firms out there, but if indeed this is true and there is a last-minute shift, things could be VERY messy tomorrow evening. The 6 seats the NDP and Liberals are projected to win will become very important, and could prove instrumental in deciding who forms government.

For now, Politically Uncorrect will continue to project a Wildrose MAJORITY of 1 SEAT. Let it be stressed, however, that confidence is now extremely low, once again vindicating the use of ranges to project election results.

Final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 6.0 over PC

As the campaign drew to a close, Danielle Smith's party took a bit of a hit over controversial remarks by her candidates. The PCs tried desperately to turn the focus onto that, but it was too little too late, and the Wildrose Party are expected to end the PC dynasty of 41 years tomorrow. The following is the final projection what Alberta is expected to look like come Monday evening.

Wildrose  39-43%  [median 40.1]  43-60 seats  [median 48]
PC        31-35%  [median 34.1]  21-38 seats  [median 33]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 11.1]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The majority marker in the 87-seat house is 44 seats. As can be seen, Wildrose's last-week woes have trended their low-range to just below a majority, but even at 43 seats they should easily form government because there likely will be a couple right-wing PCs who will cross the floor to be part of a Wildrose government. Also, since the vast majority of their range is at or above a majority, this is not a difficult call for Politically Uncorrect. There could be one thorn in the side: Liberal and NDP voters migrating en masse at the ballot box to the PCs to keep Wildrose out. Polls have not shown this but it is still a possibility to watch out for.


Nevertheless, Politically Uncorrect's final call is a Wildrose MAJORITY of 9.

BC by-elections

There are two by-elections taking place today and I thought I'd get my projections in despite hesitating to make any predictions so far. In BC's political culture and history, by-elections are generally used by voters to vent against the incumbent government; therefore, in the last 4 decades only 2 by-elections have been won by the government. From what I see of it, and with no local polling to work with, here are the Politically Uncorrect projections:

Port Moody-Coquitlam
Former mayor Joe Trasolini is popular in this riding and is the star candidate for the NDP. Given the Liberals' (fielding Dennis Marsden) unpopularity this should be a cakewalk for Trasolini. The BC Conservatives (running Christine Clarke) aren't expected to do well in this type of riding unless the Liberal vote really craters but Marsden appears to be holding his own.
Politically Uncorrect projects:

Liberal      (25-35%) LOSS
New Democrat (45-55%) GAIN

Conservative (15-25%)

Chilliwack-Hope
This one is very interesting. The federal NDP ran Gwen O'Mahoney in the federal election in this area and she earned a very respectable 33% for them in this strongly conservative riding. The BCNDP are going with the same candidate and she's expected to hold on to most of that vote. The Liberals, fearful of an exodus to the right, nominated Laurie Throness, adviser and friend of former federal Conservative MP for the region, Chuck Strahl. However, that doesn't seem to have helped as the Conservatives have a star candidate in criminologist John Martin, who, according to most reports, have siphoned off a (potentially very) large chunk of the Liberal vote. Basically anything result could be returned in this riding tomorrow evening and the order of the parties could even be wrong. The Liberals can hold, the Tories can steal, and the Dippers could come up the middle if the centre-right vote splits almost exactly in half. It all depends on voter turnout and each party's GOTV strength.
Politically Uncorrect (reluctantly) projects:

Liberal      (30-40%) HOLD

New Democrat (25-35%)

Conservative (30-40%)

What the results will say about each party is up in the air, since by-elections are normally not very good indicators of province-wide mood. However, there are clear best and worst case scenarios for each party.

For the Liberals: Holding C-H and finishing at the upper end of that range in PM-C would really be a boon for Christy Clark and her team. On the other hand, if they finish third in C-H and are threatened by the Tories in PM-C then it could accelerate the exodus of their supporters to the Tories.

For the NDP: They are the only team that has any hope of winning both contests and obviously that would be their best cast scenario. On the other hand, if the Liberals even come close in PM-C, and they finish a distant third in C-H, it could mean that their base still isn't motivated enough to vote.

For the Conservatives: A victory in C-H would really cement their legitimacy as a major player, but even two strong showings (say, average vote of 25%) would do the trick. On the other hand, if they finish third in both ridings, it would mean they lack both the organisation and readiness for the big leagues, especially after the rather unwisely hyped-up expectations in Chilliwack-Hope.

Wildrose lead 8.6pp, time running out for PC

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  39-45%  [median 41.4]  48-61 seats  [median 53]
PC        29-35%  [median 32.8]  20-35 seats  [median 29]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.4]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-12%  [median 10.6]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 21.

Wildrose expands lead to 9.7, solidly in majority territory

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  40-45%  [median 41.8]  52-60 seats  [median 55]
PC        28-34%  [median 32.0]  20-29 seats  [median 26]
NDP       10-12%  [median 10.8]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal   10-15%  [median 11.4]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.8]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 23.