Open letter

Dear student leaders:

For some reason, the people protesting with you seem to actually respect you. Validate them.

Two days ago, you accepted the government's overtures and agreed to opening dialogue. Do not use the scuffles with anti-protestors as an excuse to renege on this. The government had nothing to do with that, and you know it. These are people who are frustrated that Hong Kong has been brought to a standstill. And you know what? They, too, have a right to express their opinions.

I know, you believe that you were pushed to these drastic measures because of what the government has allegedly done (or failed to do, it's hard to know with you lot). But now that the government has offered to talk, Hong Kong's continued paralysis is as much your responsibility as the government's. Going back on your word like this is exactly what you have repeatedly accused the government of doing. Nobody likes a hypocrite.

Politics is a game of give and take. It also takes place in the real world, not whatever fantastical land you seem to think exists, where everything is exactly as you want. Take what you can get, certainly; otherwise, learn to cut your losses. You may think you're winning the PR battle right now, but dragging this out cannot possibly be in your interests. The frustration of the public will only grow, and at some point, it will become indiscriminate in its target.

You say you're doing this for the future of Hong Kong. You say you love Hong Kong. Well then, I challenge you this: lift your blockade on the daily lives of average, honest, hard-working people in Hong Kong. Show some real leadership, and walk up to the negotiating table.

Yours,

A disgruntled observer

The Hong Kong Question

Or, Why the Beijing Proposal is More Practical

Let me say, first of all, that in principle, I am in favour of holding general elections for the Chief Executive.

Let me also say, however, that I am NOT in favour of achieving this by means of Occupy Central, or boycotting school, or striking. Before you bring out the pitchforks, allow me to expound.

The current atmosphere of politics in Hong Kong is best described as fractious. If Beijing allowed open nominations, everybody and his uncle are going to run for office. The result of that will be a campaign of so many contrasting platforms, of such chaos, mudslinging, and extremes that the reputation of any candidate is going to be irreparably tarnished.

At this point, even the eventual winner will be so damaged that he will have lost his mandate to govern before he even takes office. Open nominations for the top job in a city-state is a recipe for perpetual lame duck Chief Executives. Each one will have no political capital to push the often necessary but bitter pills through for the betterment of Hong Kong. What the citizens want and what the citizens need are not always the same things.

What follows is a vicious cycle of incompetency and "quick fix" candidates; winners by virtue of being against the government, and not their own solid plan for the future. Hong Kong will descend into a death spiral, at the end of which lies the cesspool of the failed state.

Occupy Central will not convince Beijing that this will not happen. In fact, it will only strengthen this view, and Beijing's resolve to prevent this fate. If Hong Kong grinds to a halt in protest, it alone will suffer. Its economy will stall, the markets will fall, the entire city will be poorer, and Occupiers will be no closer to their goal.

If they hope to bring Beijing down with them, they are misguided. Hong Kong is but a drop in the bucket to Beijing. They will not be affected, they will not have to back down, and they will not back down, especially with much of the populace also against Occupying. Not only will Occupy Central be ineffective, it will ultimately be self-defeating.

On the topic of police brutality, there were likely faults on both sides. When protestors continue to attempt rushing government buildings and police barriers after repeated warnings, the police are going to react. Do I believe the protestors were mostly peaceful? Yes. But not all of them were, and unfortunately, violence begets violence. It only takes one spark.

At the end of the day, the police are only there to do their jobs. However, they are the easiest to vilify with media, especially social media, for perceived brutality. Were they slightly heavy-handed? Probably. But a violent suppression of the completely innocent? It was not.

Political reform is a complex issue requiring mutual compromise. You wanted the right to choose your own Chief Executive. You were afforded this right. You don't need 5, 6, or 10 candidates. Even the Americans usually only have 2 choices.

Let it not be said that Beijing chooses incompetent people. They may be corrupt, but even democracy is not without corruption. They may be friendlier to Beijing than you like, but do you really think a Chief Executive openly hostile to Beijing can get anything done?

If you grab a handful of cookies, your hand might get caught at the neck of the jar. If you let go of a couple, you might just find you can have your cookie and eat it too.

Alberta votes, and a little bit of catchup

As this blog hasn't been posted on since early March, there have been interesting bits of electoral news which I have missed out on. Last Saturday, Hong Kong chose a new Chief Executive in C. Y. Leung, and the Australian State of Queensland had an election where the governing Australian Labor Party was wiped out by the conservative Liberal National Party. Closer to home, two provincial by-elections were called for April 19 in Port Moody—Coquitlam and Chilliwack—Hope.

More on that later, but now, the big electoral news: the writ has been dropped in Alberta for April 23, shaping up the most exciting election Alberta has seen since 1993. This election pits the titan 41-year-old Progressive Conservative government against the upstart Wildrose Party, which has surged in the polls since former Premier Ed Stelmach's tenure.

Party profiles:

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE

The PCs have always been able to reinvent themselves whenever their leadership grew stale. That's the secret of their prolonged electoral success. With Ed Stelmach unable to recover in popularity, the PCs chose a new leader in Alison Redford. She is solidly in the centrist camp of the party, and so has moved the party decidedly leftward. Will Alison Redford and the PCs be able to right the ship and hold on to power, or will the public deem them too stale after 41 years?

WILDROSE PARTY

They are the main challenger to the PCs, and the first serious competition since the 1993 Liberals. They are running on a hard free market platform, coupled with a libertarian social stance. Wildrose is led by the charismatic Danielle Smith, who has captured public imagination since becoming leader. Will Wildrose's support hold up as desire for change boils, or will disaffected PCs return to the PC fold as serious scrutiny is directed toward Wildrose policies? Will their hard right economics scare some Liberals into the PC fold, as Alison Redford hopes?

LIBERAL PARTY

The Alberta Liberals actually managed a respectable result last election, with over 26% of the vote. They are the Official Opposition, and the fact that they are led by a former PC also should help them. However, their polling numbers have dropped by half into the low teens. Now, they are in a struggle for survival, as hanging on to even one of their 9 urban seats could be a challenge. Can Raj Sherman save his party, or will the PCs move to the centre squeeze out the party's last life?

NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Alberta is not typically friendly to the socialist cause, but the NDP have established a toehold in Edmonton both federally and provincially. Their leader, Brian Mason, is the only one to have fought in the last election. Their support, concentrated and more solid than that of the Liberals, could help them overtake the Liberals as the top left-of-centre choice in Alberta, in seats if not in votes. Can the NDP benefit from an increasingly fractured political scene in Edmonton?

ALBERTA PARTY

A new player, this party was formed by Liberals frustrated at their party's lack of momentum against the PC juggernaut. The party only has one MLA in Dave Taylor, who crossed over from the Liberals. The Alberta Party has not been able to capture public attention, and in some polls is too weak to even register. Will they be able to hang on to their lone seat, or will their lack of organisation send them packing to the political fringe?

The first seat projection for the election will be made once the polling average is up and running.

The Koreas

As most of you may know, North Korea attacked a South Korean island without reason yesterday. South Korea was understandably panicked. Other countries' reactions were more perplexing. The Swiss stressed their neutrality, the French tried to surrender, the United States started to behave like that upset autistic kid in third grade, China voiced its "extreme displeasure" (they love that term and have expressed it at least 20 times this year), citizens in Hong Kong staged a protest, and Iran called for the destruction of Israel.

Clearly, nations do not base decisions and reactions upon the Word of God. However, in the irony of ironies, they help to fulfill its prophecies. Let us remember that Christ Himself said of the end of days in Matthew 24: 6-7a, "You will hear of wars and rumours of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom."

And so, let us all take a step back, take a deep breath, and stop worrying about impending doom and nuclear war. At least...until the USA and China enter this conflict...on opposite sides.

Triple Crown update

It's election day in Sweden and the final polls have been released...so one final update:

The Alliance - 49-52% (175-189)
Red-Greens - 43-46% (153-167)
Sweden Democrats - 3-6% (0-21)

Since the Alliance's confidence interval lies completely above the majority line (175 seats), Politically Uncorrect projects an
ALLIANCE MAJORITY.

The Triple Crown

Sweden is holding elections on Sunday the 19th to renew their 349-member Riksdag. There's the centre-right Alliance governing coalition (made of 4 parties), the centre-left "red-green" coalition (made of 3 parties), and then there's the Sweden Democrats, a far right fringe group.

A bit of history: the centre-left main party, the Social Democrats, were the most successful political group in the Western World. After World War I, they never lost more than 1 election in a row, and formed government about 80% of the time.

This election promises to be a record breaker. The Sweden Democrats are polling over the 4% threshold set for eligibility to win seats, for one, but most significantly, the Social Democrats look set to lose, for the first time, a second election in a row, with all polls showing the Alliance will form a parliamentary majority.

So, with that, a bit of a projection:

The Alliance - 50-54%
Red-Green - 40-44%
Sweden Democrats - 4-7%

Decision 2010: Australian federal election

"The people have spoken, but it's going to take a little time to determine what they said."

~ Bill Clinton

These words describe perfectly the situation Australia faces in the coming week. Last night, Australia voted in a federal election, to decide how its 150 'divisions' would be distributed. The side that gets itself elected in 76 divisions is the side who gets to form government.

The election was being touted as the closest in Australian history, and it did not disappoint. I spent last evening watching the drama unfold on the ABC, and in the end, after two hours of analysis, the panel could only say, "We have no idea."

When I went to bed, the governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) was elected or leading in 72 divisions, and the opposition Liberal/National Coalition in 73. Needless to say, it would be the smallest margin between the two major sides, ever. It looks almost set to be the first hung parliament in Australia in 70 years.

73 and 72 add up to 145. The remaining 5 divisions are split between 4 independent members and the first Green ever to be elected into the Australian lower house. The Green and one of the independent members are likely to vote with the ALP. The other 3 have conservative backgrounds, and are more likely to side with the Coalition. If that's the case, left-of-centre members add to 74, and right-of-centre members add to 76. The Coalition has the upper hand; but at the end of the day, anything can happen, and nobody has a clue who will be the Prime Minister of Australia at this time next week.

This result was actually a bit of a shock. Every poll released on the last day before the election had the ALP ahead by a razor-thin margin. It would either be a Labor hung parliament or a bare Labor majority. The Coalition was only given an outside chance.

As a strange election, it had strange beginnings. Labor's term actually constitutionally lasts until November. Julia Gillard decided to call a snap election just weeks after deposing Kevin Rudd as Labor leader and Prime Minister. Indeed, it would seem her initial popularity was enough to steer Labor to an easy victory. But as the campaign progressed, Labor had what the media called a "disastrous" week, opening the door to Tony Abbot, leader of the Coalition.

With several very close seats, postal votes and recounts could still alter the makeup of the lower house. If the situation changes to 72 for the Coalition and 73 for Labor, and the other members split towards their "natural" leanings, then we would end up with 75 for the Coalition, and 75 for Labor. In such a case, neither party might be able to form a government. Parliament could then immediately dissolve, and a new election called.

Constitutional crisis, anyone?

UPDATE: Labor has won the backing of the Green AND 3 of the independents, allowing them to form government with a razor-thin majority of 76 to 74. Julia Gillard will continue as Prime Minister.

We come out in droves to complain

Because we can.

Because we feel like it.

Because it's part of our modern political activism.

I'm talking about Hong Kong, because as some of you may know (if you follow my other blog), I am currently in Hong Kong.

It's really becoming a rampant problem in this city. Sure, the economy is still firing on all cylinders, unlike most of the rest of the world, but politically this city is rather...well...whiney.

For example, take what happened earlier this week. A water main broke, I think it was in Tuen Mun, and so the government very promptly sent water trucks to provide water to affected households, erstwhile fixing the problem as quickly as possible. I think we can all agree, that is a very appropriate and timely response, right?

Apparently not. When interviewed by the local news station, the people said something along the lines of 'they didn't provide enough water.' Good heavens people! The government has to fix the water main and temporarily supply water to you manually. It's not like it doesn't cost the government money. What more can you want? That the government ensure you personally receive a constant supply of Aquafina?

This has gotten to a level that is beyond belief. And it's not just confined to Hong Kong. It's worldwide. The newest generation, they have been brought up with all the possible amenities. They have come to expect it. And I must admit, I am guilty of it sometimes. However, taking this attitude of expectancy and complacency to such extreme heights, is a never before seen phenomenon.

This is an issue that could really use some reflection: in this age of affluence, have we come to expect too much? Is this sort of behaviour sustainable? And finally, are we harbouring a culture of complaint?

Another year, another PM

Naoto Kan was inaugurated as Emperor Akihito of Japan's 14th Prime Minister yesterday. 14 Prime Ministers?! The Emperor must've been on the throne for AGES!

Not so - Emperor Akihito ascended to Japan's throne in 1989, a mere 21 years ago. Evidently, the post "Prime Minister of Japan" does not have any job security at all. In fact, it is pretty much a graveyard. Recent years have been riddled with sudden resignations...often just a year or less into their tenure. This is very different from any other Prime Ministerial nation...heck, in Canada, we have to go back to 1920 to count out 14 Prime Ministers.

The Japanese public is peculiar. Why do I mention them? Well, it's often due to them that these sudden resignations arise. They are HIGHLY intolerant of their politicians. In fact, some of the world's lowest approval ratings come from Japan. Taro Aso served from 2005-07, and bottomed out at 7% approval. Noboru Takeshita's (1987-89) ratings REALLY DID TAK-E-S**T-A when he rocketed down to 4% approval. And the funny thing is, all of these Prime Ministers head into the post with 80% approval ratings. It's kinda like a typical contemporary American marriage. They rush headlong into it head over heels in love (or drunk)...then find out after a few months that they are hopelessly irreconcilable. And then either the Japanese public (via an election) or the Prime Minister (via resignation) will not be long in saying, "I want a divorce."

The Right Honourable Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

Who would have thought? It's a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, and the LibDems get 4 cabinet ministers, as well as the Deputy Premiership for leader Nick Clegg. And so the drama in Britain ends.

The election on May 6th ended in a lose-lose-lose situation. The Conservatives (306) couldn't win their majority (326), Labour (258) didn't hang on with most seats, and the Liberal Democrats (57) polled a disappointing 24%, which while marginally up on 2005, actually got them less seats than in 2005.

To add to the confusion, normal ideological partners still didn't add up to the required 326 seats for a parliamentary majority. The Conservatives and the Northern Ireland Unionists (8) only added to 314, and the obvious Labour-LibDem coalition totaled only 315.

So the speculation began. Would it be a Conservative minority? Mathematically difficult. A Lib-Lab minority? Clegg said he'd never work with PM Brown. A Lib-Con majority? Political differences abound...

Then Gordon Brown blew his chances of staying on with an angry phone exchange. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives both say that coalition talks have been encouraging. Then Brown, in a last ditch attempt to help Labour, announces that he will step down as leader. And to no avail, as his own MPs were all over the news denouncing a Lib-Lab pact.

All this time, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats had been making progress in coalition talks, and as it was increasingly evident that this would be the new government, Gordon Brown tendered his resignation to the Queen today, and Conservative leader David Cameron was invited to be the next British Prime Minister.

Good luck, Mr. Cameron, and rule well.

A historic landslide!

2010 marks 20 years since the fall of communism in Hungary, and one group was that was definitely celebrating was the opposition Fidesz-KDNP Christian conservative alliance. In the 6 free elections since the fall of communism, Fidesz-KDNP notched the greatest electoral victory by any political group, taking advantage of a disastrous 4 years for the governing Socialists (MSZP). With nearly 53% of the votes and 263 of the 386 seats in parliament, they clear the threshold for a two-thirds majority (258 seats), becoming the first non-coalition government to do so, and this is the threshold required to institute (some would say much-needed) constitutional reforms. Now, Hungary has a very complex electoral system (they have single-member seats, list seats, and so-called "compensation" seats, and you need at least 5% of the vote to be eligible for list and compensation seats). However, there is one image that can greatly display the nature of the Fidesz-KDNP victory: the single-member seats.

Orange is Fidesz-KDNP (173 + 87 list + 3 compensation = 263) 
Red is the governing MSZP (2 + 46 list + 21 compensation = 59) 
White is an independent
Black is the city of Budapest (see inset map)

Parties that did not win single-member seats:
Far-right party Jobbik (18 list + 29 compensation = 47)
Green party LMP (5 list + 11 compensation = 16)

A nigh on clean sweep! Here's to hoping this new government can live up to expectations and make daily life easier for the average Hungarian. And, as it is a Christian conservative alliance, I'm hoping they can uphold some traditional values too (and throttle Jobbik in the process, since they are quite possibly racist).