New Brunswick votes

New Brunswick is going to the polls today, and I've been too busy to follow too closely, but I can't resist making a call anyway. Premier David Alward's Progressive Conservatives are the incumbent government, having won the last election in 2010 by a landslide with 49% of the vote and 42/55 seats. They're seeking re-election to avoid being only the second NB government in history to be relegated to a single term. The opposition Liberals, led by rookie leader Brian Gallant, are seeking to redeem themselves. Meanwhile, Dominic Cardy took over an NDP holding 0 seats and are hoping to change that. On the fringe are the Green Party, and the People's Alliance which I've lumped in with the "Others."

For most of the campaign, it looked as though Brian Gallant was cruising to a landslide victory in a new, streamlined legislature of 49 seats. Their poll lead was often 20+ points, and nothing seemed to shake it. In the final week, controversy over shale gas, fracking, and abortion saw the Liberal lead drop to about 10, but it seemed they were on track for victory nonetheless.

As this was happening, however, Brian Gallant gave an interview with the CBC where he fudged the figures to his own party's tax policy. Subsequently, in a disastrous retake of the interview, the CBC (known to be Liberal-friendly) grilled Gallant mercilessly, generating a massive amount of bad press. Forum then released an eleventh hour poll just last night showing a dead tie, and if they are right, this massive blunder could potentially have been the turning point of the entire election.

And so, the raw numbers:
NBPC   38-43% [median 41.0]  20-30 seats [median 26]
NBLP   39-44% [median 41.6]  19-29 seats [median 23]
NBNDP   9-13% [median 10.8]   0- 1 seats [median  0]
Green   4- 7% [median  5.0]   0- 0 seats [median  0]
Other   0- 3% [median  1.6]   0- 0 seats [median  0]

Whatever the result, this promises to be a very interesting night, with both parties able to form government. It really looks like it's too close to call. However, for the sake of integrity...

The Politically Uncorrect final call: PC MAJORITY of 3.

Ontario Final Call

Last update, it looked as though the OLP might have been heading for a bit of a comeback under Kathleen Wynne. Then the debate happened, and Hudak stopped the bleeding. A barrage of polls were released, up until the final hour before the publication ban, and the picture remains as unclear as it was when the election began. The numbers, as they stand:

OLP    34-39% [median 36.6] ( = ) 34-53 seats [median 44] (4)
OPC    35-40% [median 37.8] (0.9) 37-52 seats [median 44] (3)
ONDP   18-22% [median 20.5] (0.3) 15-23 seats [median 19] (1)
Green   2- 5% [median  4.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.4)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

There are two camps which the polls have split into:

IVR (EKOS and Forum): They have the Liberals ahead by a fair margin, possibly enough to eke out a majority government, and the NDP relatively low (below 20).

Online (Abacus, Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, Oracle): They have the PCs either tied are slightly ahead, but the NDP rather higher (near 25).

As it stands, I'm going to go with the online firms on the PCs and Liberals, and edge closer to the IVR firms for the NDP score. There are several reasons for this. Having supporters that actually vote is key in elections where turnout is getting lower and lower. The Tories traditionally have that edge here, and I envision it continuing. That said, this effect will be somewhat counteracted by the bonus that incumbent governments usually get, and the PCs will probably just barely edge the Liberals in votes.

Regarding the NDP, they caused an election that nobody wanted, and voters won't take too kindly to that. Add to the fact that Horwath has been criticised for being too right wing, and NDP supporters might not feel inclined to vote. The fly in the ointment is, these NDP supporters may instead vote Liberal to block the PCs. However, in such a close race, I believe the PCs themselves will be motivated to come out and try and win this thing.

As it stands, the ranges for either frontrunners fall just short of a majority, but it's not out of the question (just highly unlikely). Tomorrow evening promises to be extremely interesting.

For the first time since the start of this blog, Politically Uncorrect projects...A TIE?!

Ontario Liberals may earn 4th term

The polling volatility really hasn't improved much, although the gaps are starting to become tighter for all voters. The glaring difference is still Ipsos Reid, which continues to show large PC leads among likely voters. The end result is a very tight race, vote-wise, but of course the OLP has an advantage with distribution (changes from last projection):

OLP    33-40% [median 36.6] (3.7) 35-59 seats [median 48] (9)
OPC    33-40% [median 36.9] (1.6) 32-53 seats [median 41] (6)
ONDP   18-24% [median 20.8] (2.9) 11-22 seats [median 18] (3)
Green   2- 6% [median  4.3] (0.7)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.4] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

The ranges are still a bit large. They'll contract as the election draws nearer. Looking at broader trends, it looks like momentum was with Premier Wynne for a couple weeks, but recently Hudak seems to have stemmed the tide. Horwath is making no headway at all, and her election gambit is looking increasingly foolish.

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MINORITY, short 6.

After one week: it's a horserace!

Last week, Andrew Horwath of the NDP looked at the Liberal budget and decided they could not support this government any longer. As Tim Hudak and the PCs have long refused to support the Liberal minority, Premier Kathleen Wynne requested a dissolution, and an election was called.

I've waited a whole week to do this because the pre-campaign polls were giving zero clarity on the picture, and unfortunately, the campaign period polls are all over the place as well. The only thing I can say is this:

The Liberals or the PCs will either place first or second, plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With polls either registering anywhere between a 6 point Liberal lead and a 14 point PC lead (although I suspect Ipsos might have put out a bit of an outlier), the best guess right now is the weighted rolling poll average. And so (changes calculated from last election):

OLP    28-38% [median 32.9] (4.8) 22-52 seats [median 39] (14)
OPC    34-43% [median 38.5] (3.0) 35-66 seats [median 47] (10)
ONDP   21-26% [median 23.7] (1.0) 19-27 seats [median 21] ( 4)
Green   2- 6% [median  3.6] (0.7)  0- 1 seats [median  0] ( =)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.3] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] ( =)

After blowing a wide lead last election, one has to wonder how much good will Tim Hudak has left from his own party. Failure to win this time, with a Liberal government that is widely perceived as old, tired, and corrupt, will be fatal to his leadership. Tim Hudak only has one goal for June 12th: win 54 seats or more. He must convince centrist voters that the PCs are no longer the scary/nasty party.

Andrew Horwath's NDP is performing its best in the polls since the Rae victory, but has actually dropped back from their position last year of second or occasionally first. There is a sense that Ontario voters haven't fully forgiven them for the disastrous Rae government, but are almost ready to do so. Horwath must convince voters that they are a serious party that is ready to govern once again. Short of securing the official opposition, Horwath's tenure as leader may be threatened.

Kathleen Wynne's future is less clear. Since taking office, she has sought to distance herself from the McGuinty years, to mixed success. The lower hanging fruit for her will be to the left, in soft NDP voters. She must present her party as the only viable option for government. In other words, she needs to scare the centre away from the PCs and tell the left that the NDP can't win. If this election results in another hung parliament, she may attempt to hang on as premier as long as the OLP finishes either ahead of or only a couple seats behind the PCs.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects PC MINORITY, short 7.

The aftermath: utterly defeated

The election is over, with all ridings declared. Now is a time to take a look at how the projection ranges matched up to actual results:
PQ     25-30% [actual 25.4] (-1.6) 32-50 seats [actual 30] (-10)
PLQ    37-42% [actual 41.5] (+1.5) 60-78 seats [actual 70] ( = )
CAQ    21-25% [actual 23.1] (+0.6)  8-18 seats [actual 22] (+ 9)
QS      7-10% [actual  7.6] (-0.4)  2- 3 seats [actual  3] (+ 1)
ON      0- 1% [actual  0.7] (-0.1)  0- 0 seats [actual  0] ( = )
PVQ     0- 1% [actual  0.6] (+0.1)  0- 0 seats [actual  0] ( = )
Other   0- 2% [actual  1.1] (+0.2)  0- 1 seats [actual  0] ( = )
Black is for within range, red for out of range, differences calculated from median.

As you can see, the polls (and hence, the vote share projection) did extremely well, with everything falling inside the margins. The Liberal majority was also very accurately predicted, with exactly 70 seats. The third QS seat was also within range.

Clearly, however, errors were made with the PQ and CAQ seat projection. Last week I said, "As for the CAQ, incumbency could really be a huge factor for them, especially now that they're on a clear upswing. It's highly likely that the CAQ will save more of their seats than most people expect." It was with this reasoning that I had the CAQ at 13 seats, or between 8 and 18, even as other predictions had them at a maximum of 11. It turns out even that was not enough.

Not only did they save their seats, they actually increased their seat count over last election, even while losing several seats to the Liberals. The size of the PQ collapse allowed Legault to pick up more than enough seats to make up the difference. This is because, even though the CAQ actually dropped 4 points of the popular vote from 2012, the PQ lost nearly 7 points, even worse than expected.

Perhaps, however, the greatest indicator of the magnitude of the PQ defeat was Pauline Marois' loss in her own seat by nearly 800 votes. Her resignation was swift, but notably, Pierre Karl Peladeau was first to make a speech broadcast on television and offer congratulations to Couillard. Words of congratulations to another party leader are normally only spoken by a party leader. Was Couillard signalling his intentions to replace Marois?

There are painful days of soul-searching ahead for the PQ, with a potentially divisive leadership campaign between the traditional unionist wing and the possible "PKP wing" of the party. In this light, I would not be surprised if Legault and the CAQ takes the de facto role of Official Opposition, both in legislature and the eyes of Quebecers, in the following months.

Sovereignty is down, and Canada can breathe a sign of relief. Now the question is, is it out?

Quebec final call & scenarios

Forum has, once again, come out with a shocking poll at the last minute. It shows the PQ vote collapsing (24) and the PLQ gaining (44). The CAQ is again much higher (23) and is nipping at the heals of the PQ. Angus Reid also did a poll, their first in Quebec in several years now, showing a similar close race between the CAQ (25) and PQ (27), but with a much lower Liberal score (39).

With these figures, the PQ once again loses seats in the projection:
PQ     25-30% [median 27.0] (1.4) 32-50 seats [median 40] (5)
PLQ    37-42% [median 40.2] (0.9) 60-78 seats [median 70] (1)
CAQ    21-25% [median 22.5] (1.6)  8-18 seats [median 13] (4)
QS      7-10% [median  8.0] (1.3)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 1% [median  0.8] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 1% [median  0.5] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

There are several alternate scenarios which could play out, by decreasing likelihood. The main projection is, of course, still the most likely scenario.

1) Angus Reid was the top performer in the many federal and provincial elections. They're right again, and the CAQ vote ends up very close to the PQ:
PLQ 65-71, PQ 33-39, CAQ 16-20, QS 2-3
The PQ edge in efficiency keeps them well ahead in seats.

2) Liberal ballot box bonus, a la 2012 (or, Forum is right):
PLQ 82-88, PQ 24-30, CAQ 9-13, QS 2
Massive Liberal majority, PQ disaster. Liberal strength keeps CAQ down despite vote over 20%.

3) The PQ completely collapses, CAQ carries momentum to finish ahead (in votes). In this situation, the Liberals also drop a bit:
PLQ 59-65, PQ 29-35, CAQ 25-31, QS 2-4
Liberal majority in question, as well as who gets the Official Opposition. PQ weakness also opens up a third and fourth seat to QS. Most exciting situation.

4) Completely defying momentum and trends, the PQ recovers (obviously least likely):
PLQ 53-59, PQ 51-57, CAQ 11-15, QS 2-3
Government formation impossible to predict, CAQ important with balance of power.

Because of the whirlwind end to the campaign, and the CAQ rebounding to dark horse status, there could be a lot of surprises tomorrow night. Once again, we are reminded that campaigns DO matter.

The Politically Uncorrect final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 15.

The closing stretch: is the Liberal advantage as solid as it seems?

The campaign is drawing to a close, and all the new polls are pointing at the same thing: a large PLQ lead with the CAQ on the rebound. This projection will likely be the second last one, with the final one coming on Monday morning or so, with all the final adjustments made.

The numbers are here:
PQ     27-31% [median 28.4] (6.2) 41-53 seats [median 45] (8)
PLQ    37-41% [median 39.3] (2.1) 61-75 seats [median 69] (3)
CAQ    19-23% [median 20.9] (7.4)  6-15 seats [median  9] (5)
QS      7-11% [median  9.3] (1.0)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 1% [median  0.6] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 1% [median  0.6] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.8] (0.2)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Now is the time to investigate whether the Liberal lead really is as strong as it looks. On paper, a 10+ percentage point lead seems somewhat insurmountable. Alison Redford overcame a small 2pp lead in the polling average, and even Christy Clark "only" overcame an 8pp margin.

The first thing to look at is "likely voters." As many elections have shown us, the people who answer polls may not be the same people who vote. That said, both Ipsos Reid and EKOS have included a "likely voter" formula, and neither shows a bounce for the PQ. I've used their "likely voter" numbers in the poll projection either, so hopefully turnout won't throw this off as far as previous elections.

Looking at recent trends, the PLQ is clearly stagnant or even declining slightly from their peak position. Two weeks ago, they were forecast between 39-44%. Now, that has decreased to 37-41%. A Couillard majority is NOT guaranteed.

However, in the same period, the PQ has had a disastrous stretch, from a forecast of 32-37% to just 27-31%. Those ranges don't even overlap! The only thing that the PQ can hope for now is an incumbency bonus. Usually, incumbent members or governments get a bounce at the ballot box, and they perform better than polls suggest. I may tweak the numbers slightly to account for that in the final update. At this point, though, it looks like the Liberal lead is fairly safe. It would take a small miracle for Marois to pull out a victory now.

As for the CAQ, incumbency could really be a huge factor for them, especially now that they're on a clear upswing. It's highly likely that the CAQ will save more of their seats than most people expect. The same thing happened with their predecessors, the ADQ, in the 2008 election. The projection accounts for that, and so the CAQ seat count is a bit on the high side. That number might rise further by Monday. Legault's second debate performance really saved his hide.

For now, though, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 13.

Week 4: monumental cock-up?

When Pauline Marois called this election, she did so because she thought she could win a majority. As we enter week 4 of the campaign, all signs now point to that having backfired.

Spectacularly so, if we're to believe Forum Research, who once again have muddied the waters with a ground-breaking opinion poll showing a completely different race. Their firm has, in previous elections, also shown somewhat dubious numbers, to a mixed degree of success.

That the PQ campaign is struggling is not in question. The trends in other polls reflect this too. Recently, they have had trouble staying on message, and have lurched from issue to issue trying to find their footing. They have even gone so far as to suggest students from other provinces are trying to hijack the election through voter fraud. The demographic which is least likely to vote. Within hours, the chief electoral officer debunked that myth.

However, what is doubtful is that the Liberals have suddenly opened up a 13 point gap (instead of about 5 like everybody else is showing) and are cruising toward a victory. Fortunately, this is where the weighted rolling poll average comes in to smooth the wild swings:
PQ     32-37% [median 34.6] (1.1) 42-61 seats [median 53] (5)
PLQ    39-44% [median 41.4] (2.1) 58-76 seats [median 66] (5)
CAQ    12-15% [median 13.5] ( = )  2- 5 seats [median  4] (=)
QS      7-10% [median  8.3] (0.4)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  0.8] (0.3)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 1% [median  0.5] (0.3)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

The Liberals have once again picked up 5 seats at the expense of the PQ, although they may come back down a bit once new surveys are released. The Greens failed to put up a full slate of candidates, and the new numbers reflect this.

One question remains, though: is it the PQ or Forum who are headed toward a monumental cock-up?

For today, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 7.

Liberal momentum builds ahead of debate

Two new polls (CROP & Ipsos) agree: Most Quebecers do not want another sovereignty referendum, but believe the PQ would hold one if they win a majority, therefore, they are moving to the Liberals. Couillard has, so far, successfully managed to frame the PQ as focused on another referendum. He has picked up support from the nervous voters previously in the CAQ camp, because they see the Liberals as the best shot at stopping the PQ. Of course, PQ candidates attacking kosher or halal foods and comparing circumcision and baptism to rape didn't really help Marois.

To that end, the recruitment of PKP as a candidate has come back to bite Marois in the rear. The move was hailed as a game changer; and it may yet be, just not in the way Marois envisioned. She's trying to reframe her party's message around the controversial secular charter. That was evident when she sent minister Drainville out to talk exclusively about it. That will, no doubt, be part of her game plan in tomorrow's debate, on top of attacking the PLQ as the party of backroom deals and stuffed envelopes (a la Charest). Although, since this is the Couillard era, and not Charest, one wonders how effective that line of attack will be.

Look also for Francois Legault to attack Couillard more than Marois. He pretty much knows he's in no position to form government, and will now be simply trying to re-attract support. Given that a lot of that is moving to the Liberals, Legault will be swinging hard at Couillard.

This election looks increasingly likely to be determined by who sets the agenda, and not by the actual policy. If Couillard can keep the focus on the PQ's separatist roots, he will have the upper hand. The same can be said for Marois if she manages to redirect the message to secularism. Should Legault manage to worm himself in and talk about the economy, he may be able to prevent anybody from winning a majority and salvage a few seats.

For now, though:
PQ     33-38% [median 35.7] (1.7) 49-66 seats [median 58] (5)
PLQ    37-42% [median 39.3] (1.9) 52-70 seats [median 61] (5)
CAQ    12-15% [median 13.5] (0.8)  2- 5 seats [median  4] (=)
QS      7-10% [median  8.7] (0.7)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  0.8] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Politically Uncorrect now projects a LIBERAL MINORITY (short 2).

Week 3: debate prep

Leger released a poll last Friday which I didn't get a chance to put into the projection, but it basically confirms to close race. There's a little bit of good news for everyone, except the CAQ.

So, the numbers:
PQ     34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ    34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 45-64 seats [median 56] (1)
CAQ    12-16% [median 14.3] (1.2)  3- 5 seats [median  4] (1)
QS      6- 8% [median  8.0] (0.7)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

The Liberals picked up a seat from the CAQ. The most troubling news for the CAQ is that they have no one region of strength anymore, since the Quebec City region is moving away from them in favour of the Liberals. It looks as though the sovereignty talk has moved some warier people into the federalist option. What's interesting is of the remaining CAQ backers, they prefer the Liberals 43-17 over the PQ as a second choice. Philippe Couillard has a clear path to victory. Whether he is successful in attracting these CAQ voters remains to be seen.

Pauline Marois still has enough francophone support to win an election, with a decent shot at a majority. However, it's clear that she can't rest on her laurels yet. With such a close race, Thursday's debate will be key. We'll likely see if that manages to shake things up the week after.

For now, Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.

Week 2 starts with a bang: why traditional left/right politics don't work in Quebec

Today's news centred around Pierre-Karl Peladeau, CEO and president of Quebecor Media and Sun Media. Generally seen as right-wing, Peladeau shocked the political world today by announcing his candidacy with the PQ, the same party closely tied to unions, the same party widely labelled as left.

But that's just it. In Quebec, left/right politics plays second fiddle to none other than the issue of sovereignty. That's why Lucien Bouchard was a federal Progressive Conservative minister turned leader of the Bloc turned PQ premier; why Francois Legault, a former Bouchard minister, is now leader of the CAQ; why Tom Mulcair, federal NDP leader, was a minister under Jean Charest's Quebec Liberals, who himself was leader of the federal PCs.

While, in theory, the PQ and the PLQ are a little left and right of centre, respectively, in practice they have been centrist. Their governing styles have not been much different, save for on matters of culture, language, and nationhood. It is for this reason that voters on both sides of the spectrum feel they belong to these parties, under the banner of either "sovereigntist" or "federalist."

It's also why the CAQ (or its predecessor the ADQ) never did too well, except in that massive protest vote in 2007. It's not because the Quebecois are any "more liberal" than the rest of Canada. The CAQ are, officially, soft nationalists; neither sovereigntist nor federalist. Their raison d'etre is economic conservatism, but economic conservatives have already found a home in either the PQ or the PLQ, and for the most part, they're content. If not, sovereignty or federalism serves as a force compelling them to stay, despite minor grievances.

We'll probably see by the Friday update whether today's news has impacted the parties' support. For today, a CROP poll this weekend confirms the close race. The only difference is a slightly higher number for the CAQ. And so:

PQ     34-40% [median 37.2] (0.9) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ    34-40% [median 37.2] (0.9) 44-63 seats [median 55] (=)
CAQ    13-17% [median 15.5] (1.6)  4- 8 seats [median  5] (=)
QS      6- 8% [median  7.3] (0.3)  2- 2 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.0] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.

It's a tie! Or is it?

End of week update. I'd like to hold to a Friday and Monday posting schedule this election cycle, unless a huge slew/barrage of polls show up.

Anyway, a Forum poll came out yesterday and moved the projection a little. The regional breakdowns are a little odd, but not totally out of line. Good poll for the PLQ.

The new numbers (changes in brackets, red means loss):
PQ     35-41% [median 38.1] (0.3) 56-75 seats [median 63] (2)
PLQ    35-41% [median 38.1] (2.4) 43-62 seats [median 55] (4)
CAQ    12-16% [median 13.9] (1.6)  3- 7 seats [median  5] (2)
QS      6- 8% [median  7.0] (0.5)  2- 2 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.5)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  1.0] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Even with a tie, the PQ has a much better chance of winning the most seats. Again, this is due to the Liberals piling up useless majorities in Anglo Montreal ridings. However, there are a lot of close races elsewhere, and as the seat ranges demonstrate, almost anything can happen. Also, there is a riding where the independent candidate, an incumbent who left the PLQ, who may be a factor in her seat. That said, currently I believe she is not personally popular enough to hang on over the party-backed candidates.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects a razor thin PQ MAJORITY of 1.

Ready, set, go! Quebec votes on April 7

Eighteen months into her minority mandate, Pauline Marois (PQ) has pulled the plug on her own government in an attempt to secure a majority, on the back of her "secular charter" bill. While English Canada spurned this controversial (some have called it xenophobic) piece of legislation, it became increasingly popular among francophones, which, unsurprisingly, are the key demographic of Quebec elections.

A review of the parties:
PQ - Sovereigntist, centre-left party (Pauline Marois)
PLQ - Federalist, centrist party (Philippe Couillard)
CAQ - Nationalist, centre-right party (Francois Legault)
QS - Sovereigntist, far left party (Francoise David & Andres Fontecilla)
ON - Splinter party from the PQ (Sol Zanetti)
PVQ - Green  (Alex Tyrrell)

The first numbers from the weighted rolling poll average:
PQ     35-40%  [median 37.8]  56-78 seats  [median 65]
PLQ    33-38%  [median 35.7]  38-60 seats  [median 51]
CAQ    14-17%  [median 15.5]   5- 9 seats  [median  7]
QS      7- 9%  [median  7.5]   2- 2 seats  [median  2]
ON      0- 2%  [median  1.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
PVQ     0- 2%  [median  1.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other   0- 2%  [median  0.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The PQ has a slight electoral advantage due to the francophone vote, as mentioned above. On the other hand, the Liberals pile up massive (and useless) majorities in the anglophone Montreal constituencies.

With this reasoning, Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MAJORITY of 5.

NS final call: Liberals poised for majority

Over the past weekend, there was a noticeable shift of support away from the Liberals and to the PCs. That tide, however, as since been stemmed. The NDP also experienced a minor uptick.

While the number of undecideds is still huge, at about 20-25% of the population, it would take nearly all of that to break the NDP's way for them to retain government. Add to that fact that there's no eleventh hour Forum poll showing a suddenly much closer race, and Stephen McNeil looks set to be Premier-elect tomorrow evening:

NDP       27-31%  [median 28.9]  10-18 seats  [median 14]
Liberal   44-48%  [median 46.0]  27-35 seats  [median 31]
PC        22-26%  [median 23.7]   4- 8 seats  [median  6]
Green      0- 2%  [median  1.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Since the last update, the NDP has edged up 1.0pp and 4 seats, and the PCs have jumped 4.8pp and 2 seats. This was at the expense of the Liberals, who have lost 5.6pp and 6 seats. However, given the Liberals' massive lead over the middle portion of the campaign, it was much a case of too little, too late for Premier Dexter.

And so, Politically Uncorrect's final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 11.

And if, by yet another freak of Canadian politics, the NDP manage to retain the seat of government tomorrow, the Leafs will most certainly be the 2014 Stanley Cup Champions. You read it here first.

NS Libs support solidifies, lead by 23.7

Since last week, the Nova Scotia Liberals have moved up, the PCs have moved down, and the NDP has been stable. Abacus Data has joined CRA in the field, and the results are similar, with the small difference being Abacus has the PCs higher at the expense of the Liberals. Still, the Liberal lead remains massive in both polls.

The fly in the ointment is the high percentage (20-30%) of undecided voters that both firms are recording. This is the primary reason for somewhat large ranges in the projection, but the Liberal lead is large enough that a majority remains the only likely outcome.

NDP       26-31%  [median 27.9]   6-16 seats  [median 10]
Liberal   48-53%  [median 51.6]  31-41 seats  [median 37]
PC        17-22%  [median 18.9]   3- 5 seats  [median  4]
Green      0- 2%  [median  1.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The Liberal range extends further down than up, and the NDP extends higher up than down, because governments usually wind up with an incumbency bonus. However, I'm not expecting anything like BC or Alberta despite the high undecided figure because the situation is completely different. In Alberta, the opposition was inexperienced and a bit too far right for comfort. In BC, the opposition leader was not charismatic and his party was untrusted with the economy. Stephen McNeil is personally popular and his party has been in government before without disaster.

Therefore, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 23.

NS Liberals in pole position, lead by 22.0 over NDP

Nova Scotia dropped the writ over 2 weeks ago, so this has been a long time coming. CRA is doing daily tracking, but no other company is out polling, so updates will be a bit scarce. That said, there's no question about which party is ahead right now, despite the shaken confidence in opinion polling. Without further ado, here is the first Nova Scotia projection:

NDP       27-31%  [median 28.2]   9-18 seats  [median 12]
Liberal   48-52%  [median 50.2]  29-38 seats  [median 35]
PC        19-22%  [median 20.3]   2- 6 seats  [median  4]
Green      0- 2%  [median  0.8]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Rationale: The Greens have only fielded 16 candidates out of 51, and will be hard pressed to take more than 1% of the vote. I've penalised them accordingly. There are 7 independents, who will likely take about 0.5% of the vote. These figures will probably not move much.

The debate earlier tonight may move public opinion, but it'll have to be pretty drastic to stop Stephen McNeil's Liberals from winning for the first time since 1998. Currently, they have a > 99% chance of a majority, and there are only 13 days left for their opponents to whittle down their gigantic poll lead. Premier Darrell Dexter will need to hope for an even larger miracle than either Redford or Clark engineered, and PC leader Jamie Baillie may want to start working to just cling onto as many seats as possible.

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 19.

BC final call: weekend campaigning changes nothing

As it is past midnight, it should be safe to post the final BC projection update. From last day polls released by EKOS, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid, it can be inferred that Liberal momentum has stalled, and the NDP will win by a reasonable amount, if not the landslide originally imagined.

The final weighted rolling poll average gives the NDP a 7.0pp lead, enough to secure a comfortable majority:
New Democrat   43-47%  [median 45.4]  46-56 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        36-40%  [median 38.4]  27-37 seats  [median 34]  Green           6-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 1 seats  [median  0] 
Conservative    4- 7%  [median  5.4]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

For the minor points: the Greens should only have a realistic shot in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with Andrew Weaver. The Conservatives really are in no position to win any seats anymore, although they should place second in a couple interior ridings. I still see 2 independents winning, most likely Arthur Hadland in Peace River North and Vicki Huntington in Delta South.

As for the final call...
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

Post-debate: NDP lead drops to 8.0 7.4 7.9pp

Campaigns matter. Debates move votes. The two post-debate polls published today offer proof, as Forum and Insights West both show the lead narrowing by a large amount. The Greens are also ticking up in the weighted rolling average. A couple more polls would be nice to see if it's a blip or whether the debate actually moved support significantly. The new numbers certainly suggest that it's no longer a walk in the park for the NDP like at the writ drop.

EDIT: Angus Reid also published a poll showing a narrowing NDP lead into the single-digits. This does very little except swap one Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat as the poll is actually very much in line with the polling average already.

EDIT 2: Ipsos Reid finally published as well, also with a move toward the Liberals, although with a slightly larger NDP lead much like their last poll. This poll does nothing more than swap that Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat back.

New Democrat   41-47%  [median 44.5]  43-60 seats  [median 51]
Liberal        33-38%  [median 36.6]  23-40 seats  [median 32]
Green           8-11%  [median  9.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Conservative    6- 9%  [median  7.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 17.

Pre-debate: Liberals narrow race, but gap still wide

The final candidates list is out from Elections BC and it appears that the Greens and Conservatives will be fielding just under 60/85 candidates each. Accordingly, both parties will begin to be penalised in the polling average, as with missing candidates it is very hard to achieve the vote share that province-wide polls indicate. The "other" column has therefore grown, and so has the NDP (marginally), but the biggest beneficiary is the Liberals. The polling conducted this week features a rather large array of results so there is extra uncertainty in the numbers but the net effect is the Liberals moving up.

The actual numbers below:
New Democrat   43-49%  [median 47.1]  45-70 seats  [median 57]
Liberal        30-36%  [median 33.8]  15-38 seats  [median 26]
Conservative    7-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Green           7-10%  [median  8.4]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.

While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.

The writ drops: BC NDP start with huge 17.8pp lead

The election has officially begun and so Politically Uncorrect returns to the field of election prediction. The big questions being asked this round:

How big will the NDP majority be? (as it would take an act of God for them to lose, and maybe not even then)
Will the Greens and Conservatives be able to elect MLAs?
How many independents will be elected?

Right now, the best short answers to those questions are landslide, yes, and two, in that order.

Without further ado, the solid numbers:

New Democrat   45-49%  [median 46.8]  55-70 seats  [median 62]
Liberal        27-31%  [median 29.0]  12-28 seats  [median 20]
Conservative   10-13%  [median 11.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Green           9-12%  [median 10.5]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have some strength in the BC Interior and if their slate of candidates includes some credible names in the interior there are a few seats where they could factor in. I'm particularly looking at the BC Peace and the Southern Interior where they placed respectably last election.

The Greens also have potentially enough concentrated support on the South Island to have a shot, given Elizabeth May and Donald Galloway's performances there, but translating federal to provincial support is somewhat of an enigma.

There are 4 strong independent candidates with a chance of winning their seats but with NDP support as strong as it is now they may not all be elected. I'll need to see how good their personal followings are before tweaking the projection.

As for the main result, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 39.