Ontario Final Call

Last update, it looked as though the OLP might have been heading for a bit of a comeback under Kathleen Wynne. Then the debate happened, and Hudak stopped the bleeding. A barrage of polls were released, up until the final hour before the publication ban, and the picture remains as unclear as it was when the election began. The numbers, as they stand:

OLP    34-39% [median 36.6] ( = ) 34-53 seats [median 44] (4)
OPC    35-40% [median 37.8] (0.9) 37-52 seats [median 44] (3)
ONDP   18-22% [median 20.5] (0.3) 15-23 seats [median 19] (1)
Green   2- 5% [median  4.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.4)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

There are two camps which the polls have split into:

IVR (EKOS and Forum): They have the Liberals ahead by a fair margin, possibly enough to eke out a majority government, and the NDP relatively low (below 20).

Online (Abacus, Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, Oracle): They have the PCs either tied are slightly ahead, but the NDP rather higher (near 25).

As it stands, I'm going to go with the online firms on the PCs and Liberals, and edge closer to the IVR firms for the NDP score. There are several reasons for this. Having supporters that actually vote is key in elections where turnout is getting lower and lower. The Tories traditionally have that edge here, and I envision it continuing. That said, this effect will be somewhat counteracted by the bonus that incumbent governments usually get, and the PCs will probably just barely edge the Liberals in votes.

Regarding the NDP, they caused an election that nobody wanted, and voters won't take too kindly to that. Add to the fact that Horwath has been criticised for being too right wing, and NDP supporters might not feel inclined to vote. The fly in the ointment is, these NDP supporters may instead vote Liberal to block the PCs. However, in such a close race, I believe the PCs themselves will be motivated to come out and try and win this thing.

As it stands, the ranges for either frontrunners fall just short of a majority, but it's not out of the question (just highly unlikely). Tomorrow evening promises to be extremely interesting.

For the first time since the start of this blog, Politically Uncorrect projects...A TIE?!

Week 5: lose-lose

With attack-style politics thoroughly entrenched in Canada, politics is a blood sport at best, and an all-out war of attrition at worst. Elections are seldom won, but often lost. Such is the logic behind the saying, "oppositions can't win elections, governments lose them."

And yet, oppositions can most certainly lose elections as well. Most recently, Adrian Dix lost the BC election by waffling over Kinder Morgan, opening to door to vicious attacks by the Liberals on his economic platform. Even "winners" can also lose. Marois herself had to settle for a razor-thin 4 seat minority last time because of a lacklustre campaign, even while Charest was well and truly f**ked by the Charbonneau commission on corruption.

In fact, the last time someone actually won an election was when Mulroney fought the 1988 election over NAFTA. His record-setting 211 seats in the 1984 election? That was all Turner making gaffe after gaffe.

So, it's not about winning, at all. Rather, it's all about not losing.

And that brings us to Quebec campaign. The question this week: who can survive?

Couillard's performance in the second debate can be described by one word: limp. He was attacked on all sides on the question of integrity. Perhaps the person who swung hardest was Legault, who has been bleeding support to Couillard over concerns of a PQ majority.

Meanwhile, a bombshell dropped today when allegations surfaced that Marois' husband, Claude Blanchet, accepted illegal donations for her leadership bid from a donor who wanted access to Marois. Although she's strongly denied this, the shadow has already been cast over her integrity. What's worse is, she's been trying all campaign to pin the integrity issue onto Couillard. This could make her look like a crook and a hypocrite.

There has been a lack of polling last week, save for a Leger poll confirming the situation before these two events. Expect the next batch of polls to show declines for both Marois and Couillard. Entering the final week of this campaign, whoever drops less is key.

Liberal momentum builds ahead of debate

Two new polls (CROP & Ipsos) agree: Most Quebecers do not want another sovereignty referendum, but believe the PQ would hold one if they win a majority, therefore, they are moving to the Liberals. Couillard has, so far, successfully managed to frame the PQ as focused on another referendum. He has picked up support from the nervous voters previously in the CAQ camp, because they see the Liberals as the best shot at stopping the PQ. Of course, PQ candidates attacking kosher or halal foods and comparing circumcision and baptism to rape didn't really help Marois.

To that end, the recruitment of PKP as a candidate has come back to bite Marois in the rear. The move was hailed as a game changer; and it may yet be, just not in the way Marois envisioned. She's trying to reframe her party's message around the controversial secular charter. That was evident when she sent minister Drainville out to talk exclusively about it. That will, no doubt, be part of her game plan in tomorrow's debate, on top of attacking the PLQ as the party of backroom deals and stuffed envelopes (a la Charest). Although, since this is the Couillard era, and not Charest, one wonders how effective that line of attack will be.

Look also for Francois Legault to attack Couillard more than Marois. He pretty much knows he's in no position to form government, and will now be simply trying to re-attract support. Given that a lot of that is moving to the Liberals, Legault will be swinging hard at Couillard.

This election looks increasingly likely to be determined by who sets the agenda, and not by the actual policy. If Couillard can keep the focus on the PQ's separatist roots, he will have the upper hand. The same can be said for Marois if she manages to redirect the message to secularism. Should Legault manage to worm himself in and talk about the economy, he may be able to prevent anybody from winning a majority and salvage a few seats.

For now, though:
PQ     33-38% [median 35.7] (1.7) 49-66 seats [median 58] (5)
PLQ    37-42% [median 39.3] (1.9) 52-70 seats [median 61] (5)
CAQ    12-15% [median 13.5] (0.8)  2- 5 seats [median  4] (=)
QS      7-10% [median  8.7] (0.7)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  0.8] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Politically Uncorrect now projects a LIBERAL MINORITY (short 2).