Finally final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 4.0 over PC

Forum has decided to surprise us with their finally final numbers. It turns out what we thought was their "final" poll wasn't actually their last poll of the campaign. Forum also shows a narrowing of the gap between Wildrose and PC to just 2 points, which narrows the vote projection from a Wildrose lead of 6.0 all the way down to 4.0 points. It also has the effect of greatly increasing uncertainty because it created a huge divergence in the polling firms' conclusions. The election is now expected to look as follows:

Wildrose  37-43%  [median 39.2]  35-60 seats  [median 44]
PC        31-37%  [median 35.2]  21-46 seats  [median 37]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 10.7]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Wildrose is now forecast to have a median at exactly the majority marker, with a range that extends well below. The PCs range now extends all the way up to 46 seats, which gives them some hope of retaining the seat of government, however slim it may be. Forum is standing alone out of all the polling firms out there, but if indeed this is true and there is a last-minute shift, things could be VERY messy tomorrow evening. The 6 seats the NDP and Liberals are projected to win will become very important, and could prove instrumental in deciding who forms government.

For now, Politically Uncorrect will continue to project a Wildrose MAJORITY of 1 SEAT. Let it be stressed, however, that confidence is now extremely low, once again vindicating the use of ranges to project election results.

Final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 6.0 over PC

As the campaign drew to a close, Danielle Smith's party took a bit of a hit over controversial remarks by her candidates. The PCs tried desperately to turn the focus onto that, but it was too little too late, and the Wildrose Party are expected to end the PC dynasty of 41 years tomorrow. The following is the final projection what Alberta is expected to look like come Monday evening.

Wildrose  39-43%  [median 40.1]  43-60 seats  [median 48]
PC        31-35%  [median 34.1]  21-38 seats  [median 33]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 11.1]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The majority marker in the 87-seat house is 44 seats. As can be seen, Wildrose's last-week woes have trended their low-range to just below a majority, but even at 43 seats they should easily form government because there likely will be a couple right-wing PCs who will cross the floor to be part of a Wildrose government. Also, since the vast majority of their range is at or above a majority, this is not a difficult call for Politically Uncorrect. There could be one thorn in the side: Liberal and NDP voters migrating en masse at the ballot box to the PCs to keep Wildrose out. Polls have not shown this but it is still a possibility to watch out for.


Nevertheless, Politically Uncorrect's final call is a Wildrose MAJORITY of 9.

Wildrose lead 8.6pp, time running out for PC

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  39-45%  [median 41.4]  48-61 seats  [median 53]
PC        29-35%  [median 32.8]  20-35 seats  [median 29]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.4]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-12%  [median 10.6]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 21.

Wildrose expands lead to 9.7, solidly in majority territory

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  40-45%  [median 41.8]  52-60 seats  [median 55]
PC        28-34%  [median 32.0]  20-29 seats  [median 26]
NDP       10-12%  [median 10.8]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal   10-15%  [median 11.4]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.8]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 23.

Wildrose by 5.6 over PC, pulling even further ahead?

As the Alberta election is well underway, it is high time for the first seat projection. I was going to do this on Sunday, but polling volatility was far too great. Since then a few new polls have been released confirming the actual position. From now on the projections will be updated on Sunday as the election is due Monday the 23rd.

At the start of the campaign, things were neck and neck with the PCs perhaps with a slight lead. Then a few polls came along indicating a large Wildrose lead. This threw the polling average into a bit of disarray but since then the Wildrose lead has consolidated in 4 separate polls so I feel comfortable with the numbers. Personally, though, I must say that I am not happy with them since Wildrose's economic stance is far too free-market for my liking.

Let's get right to it:
Wildrose  36-41%  [median 38.5]  38-52 seats  [median 45]
PC        30-35%  [median 32.9]  30-38 seats  [median 35]
NDP       11-13%  [median 11.8]   3- 7 seats  [median  5] 
Liberal   11-15%  [median 12.6]   0- 7 seats  [median  2]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  2.3]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect currently projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 3.

That said, once the old polls drop off, Wildrose could be in an even better position. We'll see what week two of the campaign bears. Things are not written in stone. As former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously noted, "a week is a long time in politics."

Alberta votes, and a little bit of catchup

As this blog hasn't been posted on since early March, there have been interesting bits of electoral news which I have missed out on. Last Saturday, Hong Kong chose a new Chief Executive in C. Y. Leung, and the Australian State of Queensland had an election where the governing Australian Labor Party was wiped out by the conservative Liberal National Party. Closer to home, two provincial by-elections were called for April 19 in Port Moody—Coquitlam and Chilliwack—Hope.

More on that later, but now, the big electoral news: the writ has been dropped in Alberta for April 23, shaping up the most exciting election Alberta has seen since 1993. This election pits the titan 41-year-old Progressive Conservative government against the upstart Wildrose Party, which has surged in the polls since former Premier Ed Stelmach's tenure.

Party profiles:

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE

The PCs have always been able to reinvent themselves whenever their leadership grew stale. That's the secret of their prolonged electoral success. With Ed Stelmach unable to recover in popularity, the PCs chose a new leader in Alison Redford. She is solidly in the centrist camp of the party, and so has moved the party decidedly leftward. Will Alison Redford and the PCs be able to right the ship and hold on to power, or will the public deem them too stale after 41 years?

WILDROSE PARTY

They are the main challenger to the PCs, and the first serious competition since the 1993 Liberals. They are running on a hard free market platform, coupled with a libertarian social stance. Wildrose is led by the charismatic Danielle Smith, who has captured public imagination since becoming leader. Will Wildrose's support hold up as desire for change boils, or will disaffected PCs return to the PC fold as serious scrutiny is directed toward Wildrose policies? Will their hard right economics scare some Liberals into the PC fold, as Alison Redford hopes?

LIBERAL PARTY

The Alberta Liberals actually managed a respectable result last election, with over 26% of the vote. They are the Official Opposition, and the fact that they are led by a former PC also should help them. However, their polling numbers have dropped by half into the low teens. Now, they are in a struggle for survival, as hanging on to even one of their 9 urban seats could be a challenge. Can Raj Sherman save his party, or will the PCs move to the centre squeeze out the party's last life?

NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Alberta is not typically friendly to the socialist cause, but the NDP have established a toehold in Edmonton both federally and provincially. Their leader, Brian Mason, is the only one to have fought in the last election. Their support, concentrated and more solid than that of the Liberals, could help them overtake the Liberals as the top left-of-centre choice in Alberta, in seats if not in votes. Can the NDP benefit from an increasingly fractured political scene in Edmonton?

ALBERTA PARTY

A new player, this party was formed by Liberals frustrated at their party's lack of momentum against the PC juggernaut. The party only has one MLA in Dave Taylor, who crossed over from the Liberals. The Alberta Party has not been able to capture public attention, and in some polls is too weak to even register. Will they be able to hang on to their lone seat, or will their lack of organisation send them packing to the political fringe?

The first seat projection for the election will be made once the polling average is up and running.

40 years and counting

What with the revolution in Tunisia and continued uprisings across the Arab world, most prominently Egypt, this is a good time to talk about the apparent demise of another one-party state, and this one's quite close to home. That's right, I'm talking Alberta. Of course, Alberta isn't truly a one-party state since it has free elections and all, but given the way the last 11 elections have gone...it might as well be one. It has often been said that you could run a fence post as a Progressive Conservative in Alberta, and it would win. That's true enough, or at least, it used to be.

Since 1971, Alberta has been run by the PCs. Yes, it has been 40 years, beating out the likes of Iraq and Egypt, and given a few more years they'll take on East Germany. This may not be the norm in other democracies, but in Alberta it's quite standard. In their 106-year history, Albertans have changed governing parties a whopping 3 times.

However, lately, there have been signs of fracture in the dynasty. Ed Stelmach was highly disliked as premier, and was recently forced to announce his resignation. Finance Minister Ted Morton, who has always been at odds with Premier Stelmach, also resigned to take the top job. Now, normally, this sort of party fratricide would not be a good thing in terms of PR, and for once, in Alberta, there is no exception.

Logically, when a government is viewed as tired, and when there is an appetite for change in the Canadian political scene, a Conservative government will give way to a Liberal one. Not so in Alberta. The name "Liberal" is so poisonous in Alberta that, for whatever lopsided reason, the newest political force is a party even more conservative than the PCs - the Wildrose Alliance. Now at first sight this is impossible. However, when you consider the fact that this is Alberta, it's not so absurd. After all, these are the folks who brought us the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers.

Why are the Wildrose Alliance such a threat to the PCs? They have a likeable leader, they're a sensational breath of fresh air, and they have 4 MLAs. To put that into perspective, the PCs themselves have 67 and the Liberals, the collection of unelectables of Alberta, have 8. But, for some reason, the PCs feel they have cause to panic. Not that that's a bad thing. When governments panic, they do things. Often times it's too little too late, but still better than nothing, as is usually the case.

Anyways, the bottom line is, 40 years is a long time, and it was about time Albertan politics got interesting again. Cherish it, because it likely won't happen again for another generation...or maybe two.