The NDP pleads no contest

That's the story the polls have been telling us about the Saskatchewan provincial election next Monday. Brad Wall of the Saskatchewan Party is an extremely popular incumbent premier riding on the coattails of a hot economy and sustained growth. That the SP is going to win a massive majority on Monday is undisputed. The real question is how many of the province's 58 seats can the NDP reasonably expect to walk away with. Turnout is going to be a major player this election.

Will favourable poll numbers make Sask. Party supporters complacent, and help the NDP keep a few more seats than they would otherwise? Or will psychologically downbeat NDP supporters opt to stay home, exacerbating the SP landslide? Usually in these cases, the party with the big lead sees a late narrowing and a drop in turnout works against them.

The other question is: how low can the Liberal Party go? With only 9 candidates this election cycle, the Liberal is closer to the Western Independence Party than the Green Party. While the polls expects them to take 1.5% of the vote, even 1% could prove difficult (I've tweaked the vote projection to reflect this). It seems the Sask. Party has taken over all of their former support, and the need for a Liberal Party in Saskatchewan could very well be called into doubt.

With that, here is what is most likely the final (and only) projection for the Saskatchewan election.

SP: 60-67%, 44-52 seats; median 63.0%, 46 seats
NDP: 27-34%, 6-14 seats; median 31.5%, 12 seats
Green: 3-5%, 0 seats; median 3.5%, 0 seats
Other: 0-3%, 0 seats; median 2.0%, 0 seats

There are only 3 recent polls for me to work with, so the confidence range is larger than I'd like, but in this case the outcome is nowhere near changeable.

To conclude, Politically Uncorrect projects a SASK. PARTY LANDSLIDE.

The New Democratic Way

It's been nearly three months since the election, and 3 months since I've posted. I can see I haven't missed much. However, there is an issue on which I'd like to write, from Saskatchewan, which happens to be having an election this November. Apparently the NDP released an attack ad in which they spliced two quotes of Premier Brad Wall (Saskatchewan Party) together. These two quotes were from a news scrum, spoken about 10 minutes apart. The new single quote was then taken completely out of context. Whatever bewitched them into thinking they wouldn't get caught I have no idea.

Before I begin, let me say that context never matters in politics. Nobody can sue anybody because normally the quote is exact and there were only differences in interpretation. If misinterpretation is done well enough, it might even force the misinterpreted to apologize. Of course, if it was common folk like us who misinterpreted comments so often, we'd be diagnosed as schizophrenic within a year (2 weeks if at non-Canadian medical institution).

Misinterpreting is one thing, but misquoting is quite another. The NDP could have kept the lid on this had they just admitted it was wrong and offered an apology. I realize, though, that expecting a political party to actually admit something is like watching paint dry. Your eyes dry first. Nevertheless, a normal political party will recognize damage when it comes and try to stop it. It is with this sharp departure from normalcy that I introduce to you...The New Democratic Way.

Deciding to take the high road instead, they called the Saskatchewan Party response "childish" and "over the top." Perhaps these words would have been more fitting had they been said to a mirror. The response from the government, while perhaps slightly dramatized, is in no way out of the ordinary. What is out of the ordinary, however, is the decision to remain defiant. They also defended the advertisement, saying it conveyed their message. By now, however, the only message the advertisement conveyed was that they were dishonest and desperate. If that's the message they wanted conveyed, perhaps NDP strategists were born on Mars. I really don't know.

As the controversy brew, they finally decided to pull the advertisement. Begrudging apologies were then offered - from all the wrong people. Party deputies released statements to the effect that they didn't know what the advertisement firm was doing. The party ordered the ads in the first place so obviously voters are expected to believe that they had nothing to do with this. Also, while party officials offered up peace offerings, the leader has been almost invisible. To this day I do not know Mr. Lingenfelter's first name. If you're running for premier and people don't know your name, you're either the leader of the Communist Party or in very big trouble (like trailing by 30%).

So, to sum it all up:
1) Initiate incredible stupidity;
2) Respond with incredible stpuidity;
3) Behave with incredible stupidity;
4) Run and hide.

And that is...The New Democratic Way.