Open letter

Dear student leaders:

For some reason, the people protesting with you seem to actually respect you. Validate them.

Two days ago, you accepted the government's overtures and agreed to opening dialogue. Do not use the scuffles with anti-protestors as an excuse to renege on this. The government had nothing to do with that, and you know it. These are people who are frustrated that Hong Kong has been brought to a standstill. And you know what? They, too, have a right to express their opinions.

I know, you believe that you were pushed to these drastic measures because of what the government has allegedly done (or failed to do, it's hard to know with you lot). But now that the government has offered to talk, Hong Kong's continued paralysis is as much your responsibility as the government's. Going back on your word like this is exactly what you have repeatedly accused the government of doing. Nobody likes a hypocrite.

Politics is a game of give and take. It also takes place in the real world, not whatever fantastical land you seem to think exists, where everything is exactly as you want. Take what you can get, certainly; otherwise, learn to cut your losses. You may think you're winning the PR battle right now, but dragging this out cannot possibly be in your interests. The frustration of the public will only grow, and at some point, it will become indiscriminate in its target.

You say you're doing this for the future of Hong Kong. You say you love Hong Kong. Well then, I challenge you this: lift your blockade on the daily lives of average, honest, hard-working people in Hong Kong. Show some real leadership, and walk up to the negotiating table.

Yours,

A disgruntled observer

Wildrose lead 8.6pp, time running out for PC

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  39-45%  [median 41.4]  48-61 seats  [median 53]
PC        29-35%  [median 32.8]  20-35 seats  [median 29]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.4]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-12%  [median 10.6]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 21.

Requiescat in paces

"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." ~ Jack Layton, Leader of the NDP and Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, August 20, 2011

Yesterday was a sad day for us all, as we learned of the passing of Jack Layton. These last words from his letter to Canadians two days before his passing are words we can all agree with. What he loves, what he hopes for, what he is optimistic for may not be what all of us love, hope for, and are optimistic for; but his last words encompass the person he truly was. He stood for all that, and more. He was genuine and sincere, in the face of politics, and to the very end, he worked for Canada, and that is to be respected.

While I may not agree with his party, his opinions, and his policies, I will still miss 'Smiling Jack,' as he was known, for what he brought to Canadian politics. I will mourn his loss as a fellow Canadian and human being. Ever since I began to follow politics, Jack Layton has been there. Sometimes he brought real ideas, but sometimes they were (no offense) a joke. He made us think and he made us laugh -- and usually when that happened he laughed with us.

With a Conservative majority, an NDP opposition, the Liberals battered, the Bloc crushed, and the Greens represented, the last election already represented a sea-change from the Canadian politics that I knew. Harper and Layton remained the only constants. Now even Layton isn't around anymore...Canadian politics is about to take on a whole new look. Jack would have wanted us to look forward, so now we ask, "What's next?"

Prime Minister Harper's offer of a state funeral, although out of the ordinary, is nothing more than what Mr. Layton deserves. May he rest in peace.

Conservative lead 14 over NDP [!!!], time running out for majority

I haven't had the time to do one of these projection updates since the start of the campaign, but here we go, with just over a week left. And what a week to do one, with what is beginning to look like the Orange Revolution!

The NDP has OVERTAKEN the Liberal party for second place, even if just barely, in the rolling poll average, and a few more of these polls and they will inch ahead of the Bloc in their home turf! Of course, a general rule in Canadian politics is that the most boring thing will end up happening...so...don't hold your breath yet.

Perhaps this is time to revisit my analysis of the probability of the following scenarios:

Harper majority - With a lack of movement in the polls as the campaign draws to a close, Harper's chance at a majority isn't moving in the right direction - 4.0 (-0.5)

Liberal government - A sharp decline since the debates is not helping the Liberals in their quest to return to power by themselves - 1.5 (-1.5)

NDP official opposition - A strong showing by Layton at the debate precluded skyrocketing poll numbers, especially in Quebec, and the payoff could be handsome - 4.0 (+2.5)

Harper's road Bloc - The NDP is on the verge of a large windfall in Quebec right now, and if the Bloc slips even a bit further they will no longer be in Harper's way - 3.5 (-3.0)

Elected in May - Excluded from the debates and absolutely ignored by the media, the Greens are spinning their wheels to no avail - 1.0 (-1.5)

And perhaps to add a couple previously fantastical situations:

Prime Minister Layton - Should the NDP continues to charge ahead, the leader of the coalition may well be Jack Layton, provided the Liberals and Bloc can stomach it - 1.5 (+1.5)

Liberals in fourth - If the Bloc stops the leakage but Ontario jumps on the NDP bandwagon, the Liberals may well find themselves even deeper into historical disaster - 0.5 (+0.5)

And so, vote and seat averages:

Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 37.91 --- 150 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 56 ---- 9 -- 15
Liberal ---------- 23.78 ---- 60 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 33 ---- 8 -- 11
NDP ------------ 23.95 ---- 55 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 17 --- 15 -- 6
Bloc ------------- 6.92 ----- 42 --------------------------------------- 42 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----