Finally final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 4.0 over PC

Forum has decided to surprise us with their finally final numbers. It turns out what we thought was their "final" poll wasn't actually their last poll of the campaign. Forum also shows a narrowing of the gap between Wildrose and PC to just 2 points, which narrows the vote projection from a Wildrose lead of 6.0 all the way down to 4.0 points. It also has the effect of greatly increasing uncertainty because it created a huge divergence in the polling firms' conclusions. The election is now expected to look as follows:

Wildrose  37-43%  [median 39.2]  35-60 seats  [median 44]
PC        31-37%  [median 35.2]  21-46 seats  [median 37]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 10.7]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Wildrose is now forecast to have a median at exactly the majority marker, with a range that extends well below. The PCs range now extends all the way up to 46 seats, which gives them some hope of retaining the seat of government, however slim it may be. Forum is standing alone out of all the polling firms out there, but if indeed this is true and there is a last-minute shift, things could be VERY messy tomorrow evening. The 6 seats the NDP and Liberals are projected to win will become very important, and could prove instrumental in deciding who forms government.

For now, Politically Uncorrect will continue to project a Wildrose MAJORITY of 1 SEAT. Let it be stressed, however, that confidence is now extremely low, once again vindicating the use of ranges to project election results.