New Brunswick votes

New Brunswick is going to the polls today, and I've been too busy to follow too closely, but I can't resist making a call anyway. Premier David Alward's Progressive Conservatives are the incumbent government, having won the last election in 2010 by a landslide with 49% of the vote and 42/55 seats. They're seeking re-election to avoid being only the second NB government in history to be relegated to a single term. The opposition Liberals, led by rookie leader Brian Gallant, are seeking to redeem themselves. Meanwhile, Dominic Cardy took over an NDP holding 0 seats and are hoping to change that. On the fringe are the Green Party, and the People's Alliance which I've lumped in with the "Others."

For most of the campaign, it looked as though Brian Gallant was cruising to a landslide victory in a new, streamlined legislature of 49 seats. Their poll lead was often 20+ points, and nothing seemed to shake it. In the final week, controversy over shale gas, fracking, and abortion saw the Liberal lead drop to about 10, but it seemed they were on track for victory nonetheless.

As this was happening, however, Brian Gallant gave an interview with the CBC where he fudged the figures to his own party's tax policy. Subsequently, in a disastrous retake of the interview, the CBC (known to be Liberal-friendly) grilled Gallant mercilessly, generating a massive amount of bad press. Forum then released an eleventh hour poll just last night showing a dead tie, and if they are right, this massive blunder could potentially have been the turning point of the entire election.

And so, the raw numbers:
NBPC   38-43% [median 41.0]  20-30 seats [median 26]
NBLP   39-44% [median 41.6]  19-29 seats [median 23]
NBNDP   9-13% [median 10.8]   0- 1 seats [median  0]
Green   4- 7% [median  5.0]   0- 0 seats [median  0]
Other   0- 3% [median  1.6]   0- 0 seats [median  0]

Whatever the result, this promises to be a very interesting night, with both parties able to form government. It really looks like it's too close to call. However, for the sake of integrity...

The Politically Uncorrect final call: PC MAJORITY of 3.

Ontario Final Call

Last update, it looked as though the OLP might have been heading for a bit of a comeback under Kathleen Wynne. Then the debate happened, and Hudak stopped the bleeding. A barrage of polls were released, up until the final hour before the publication ban, and the picture remains as unclear as it was when the election began. The numbers, as they stand:

OLP    34-39% [median 36.6] ( = ) 34-53 seats [median 44] (4)
OPC    35-40% [median 37.8] (0.9) 37-52 seats [median 44] (3)
ONDP   18-22% [median 20.5] (0.3) 15-23 seats [median 19] (1)
Green   2- 5% [median  4.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.4)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

There are two camps which the polls have split into:

IVR (EKOS and Forum): They have the Liberals ahead by a fair margin, possibly enough to eke out a majority government, and the NDP relatively low (below 20).

Online (Abacus, Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, Oracle): They have the PCs either tied are slightly ahead, but the NDP rather higher (near 25).

As it stands, I'm going to go with the online firms on the PCs and Liberals, and edge closer to the IVR firms for the NDP score. There are several reasons for this. Having supporters that actually vote is key in elections where turnout is getting lower and lower. The Tories traditionally have that edge here, and I envision it continuing. That said, this effect will be somewhat counteracted by the bonus that incumbent governments usually get, and the PCs will probably just barely edge the Liberals in votes.

Regarding the NDP, they caused an election that nobody wanted, and voters won't take too kindly to that. Add to the fact that Horwath has been criticised for being too right wing, and NDP supporters might not feel inclined to vote. The fly in the ointment is, these NDP supporters may instead vote Liberal to block the PCs. However, in such a close race, I believe the PCs themselves will be motivated to come out and try and win this thing.

As it stands, the ranges for either frontrunners fall just short of a majority, but it's not out of the question (just highly unlikely). Tomorrow evening promises to be extremely interesting.

For the first time since the start of this blog, Politically Uncorrect projects...A TIE?!

Ontario Liberals may earn 4th term

The polling volatility really hasn't improved much, although the gaps are starting to become tighter for all voters. The glaring difference is still Ipsos Reid, which continues to show large PC leads among likely voters. The end result is a very tight race, vote-wise, but of course the OLP has an advantage with distribution (changes from last projection):

OLP    33-40% [median 36.6] (3.7) 35-59 seats [median 48] (9)
OPC    33-40% [median 36.9] (1.6) 32-53 seats [median 41] (6)
ONDP   18-24% [median 20.8] (2.9) 11-22 seats [median 18] (3)
Green   2- 6% [median  4.3] (0.7)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.4] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

The ranges are still a bit large. They'll contract as the election draws nearer. Looking at broader trends, it looks like momentum was with Premier Wynne for a couple weeks, but recently Hudak seems to have stemmed the tide. Horwath is making no headway at all, and her election gambit is looking increasingly foolish.

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MINORITY, short 6.

After one week: it's a horserace!

Last week, Andrew Horwath of the NDP looked at the Liberal budget and decided they could not support this government any longer. As Tim Hudak and the PCs have long refused to support the Liberal minority, Premier Kathleen Wynne requested a dissolution, and an election was called.

I've waited a whole week to do this because the pre-campaign polls were giving zero clarity on the picture, and unfortunately, the campaign period polls are all over the place as well. The only thing I can say is this:

The Liberals or the PCs will either place first or second, plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With polls either registering anywhere between a 6 point Liberal lead and a 14 point PC lead (although I suspect Ipsos might have put out a bit of an outlier), the best guess right now is the weighted rolling poll average. And so (changes calculated from last election):

OLP    28-38% [median 32.9] (4.8) 22-52 seats [median 39] (14)
OPC    34-43% [median 38.5] (3.0) 35-66 seats [median 47] (10)
ONDP   21-26% [median 23.7] (1.0) 19-27 seats [median 21] ( 4)
Green   2- 6% [median  3.6] (0.7)  0- 1 seats [median  0] ( =)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.3] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] ( =)

After blowing a wide lead last election, one has to wonder how much good will Tim Hudak has left from his own party. Failure to win this time, with a Liberal government that is widely perceived as old, tired, and corrupt, will be fatal to his leadership. Tim Hudak only has one goal for June 12th: win 54 seats or more. He must convince centrist voters that the PCs are no longer the scary/nasty party.

Andrew Horwath's NDP is performing its best in the polls since the Rae victory, but has actually dropped back from their position last year of second or occasionally first. There is a sense that Ontario voters haven't fully forgiven them for the disastrous Rae government, but are almost ready to do so. Horwath must convince voters that they are a serious party that is ready to govern once again. Short of securing the official opposition, Horwath's tenure as leader may be threatened.

Kathleen Wynne's future is less clear. Since taking office, she has sought to distance herself from the McGuinty years, to mixed success. The lower hanging fruit for her will be to the left, in soft NDP voters. She must present her party as the only viable option for government. In other words, she needs to scare the centre away from the PCs and tell the left that the NDP can't win. If this election results in another hung parliament, she may attempt to hang on as premier as long as the OLP finishes either ahead of or only a couple seats behind the PCs.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects PC MINORITY, short 7.

It's a tie! Or is it?

End of week update. I'd like to hold to a Friday and Monday posting schedule this election cycle, unless a huge slew/barrage of polls show up.

Anyway, a Forum poll came out yesterday and moved the projection a little. The regional breakdowns are a little odd, but not totally out of line. Good poll for the PLQ.

The new numbers (changes in brackets, red means loss):
PQ     35-41% [median 38.1] (0.3) 56-75 seats [median 63] (2)
PLQ    35-41% [median 38.1] (2.4) 43-62 seats [median 55] (4)
CAQ    12-16% [median 13.9] (1.6)  3- 7 seats [median  5] (2)
QS      6- 8% [median  7.0] (0.5)  2- 2 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.5)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  1.0] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Even with a tie, the PQ has a much better chance of winning the most seats. Again, this is due to the Liberals piling up useless majorities in Anglo Montreal ridings. However, there are a lot of close races elsewhere, and as the seat ranges demonstrate, almost anything can happen. Also, there is a riding where the independent candidate, an incumbent who left the PLQ, who may be a factor in her seat. That said, currently I believe she is not personally popular enough to hang on over the party-backed candidates.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects a razor thin PQ MAJORITY of 1.

Ready, set, go! Quebec votes on April 7

Eighteen months into her minority mandate, Pauline Marois (PQ) has pulled the plug on her own government in an attempt to secure a majority, on the back of her "secular charter" bill. While English Canada spurned this controversial (some have called it xenophobic) piece of legislation, it became increasingly popular among francophones, which, unsurprisingly, are the key demographic of Quebec elections.

A review of the parties:
PQ - Sovereigntist, centre-left party (Pauline Marois)
PLQ - Federalist, centrist party (Philippe Couillard)
CAQ - Nationalist, centre-right party (Francois Legault)
QS - Sovereigntist, far left party (Francoise David & Andres Fontecilla)
ON - Splinter party from the PQ (Sol Zanetti)
PVQ - Green  (Alex Tyrrell)

The first numbers from the weighted rolling poll average:
PQ     35-40%  [median 37.8]  56-78 seats  [median 65]
PLQ    33-38%  [median 35.7]  38-60 seats  [median 51]
CAQ    14-17%  [median 15.5]   5- 9 seats  [median  7]
QS      7- 9%  [median  7.5]   2- 2 seats  [median  2]
ON      0- 2%  [median  1.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
PVQ     0- 2%  [median  1.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other   0- 2%  [median  0.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The PQ has a slight electoral advantage due to the francophone vote, as mentioned above. On the other hand, the Liberals pile up massive (and useless) majorities in the anglophone Montreal constituencies.

With this reasoning, Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MAJORITY of 5.

NS final call: Liberals poised for majority

Over the past weekend, there was a noticeable shift of support away from the Liberals and to the PCs. That tide, however, as since been stemmed. The NDP also experienced a minor uptick.

While the number of undecideds is still huge, at about 20-25% of the population, it would take nearly all of that to break the NDP's way for them to retain government. Add to that fact that there's no eleventh hour Forum poll showing a suddenly much closer race, and Stephen McNeil looks set to be Premier-elect tomorrow evening:

NDP       27-31%  [median 28.9]  10-18 seats  [median 14]
Liberal   44-48%  [median 46.0]  27-35 seats  [median 31]
PC        22-26%  [median 23.7]   4- 8 seats  [median  6]
Green      0- 2%  [median  1.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Since the last update, the NDP has edged up 1.0pp and 4 seats, and the PCs have jumped 4.8pp and 2 seats. This was at the expense of the Liberals, who have lost 5.6pp and 6 seats. However, given the Liberals' massive lead over the middle portion of the campaign, it was much a case of too little, too late for Premier Dexter.

And so, Politically Uncorrect's final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 11.

And if, by yet another freak of Canadian politics, the NDP manage to retain the seat of government tomorrow, the Leafs will most certainly be the 2014 Stanley Cup Champions. You read it here first.

NS Libs support solidifies, lead by 23.7

Since last week, the Nova Scotia Liberals have moved up, the PCs have moved down, and the NDP has been stable. Abacus Data has joined CRA in the field, and the results are similar, with the small difference being Abacus has the PCs higher at the expense of the Liberals. Still, the Liberal lead remains massive in both polls.

The fly in the ointment is the high percentage (20-30%) of undecided voters that both firms are recording. This is the primary reason for somewhat large ranges in the projection, but the Liberal lead is large enough that a majority remains the only likely outcome.

NDP       26-31%  [median 27.9]   6-16 seats  [median 10]
Liberal   48-53%  [median 51.6]  31-41 seats  [median 37]
PC        17-22%  [median 18.9]   3- 5 seats  [median  4]
Green      0- 2%  [median  1.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The Liberal range extends further down than up, and the NDP extends higher up than down, because governments usually wind up with an incumbency bonus. However, I'm not expecting anything like BC or Alberta despite the high undecided figure because the situation is completely different. In Alberta, the opposition was inexperienced and a bit too far right for comfort. In BC, the opposition leader was not charismatic and his party was untrusted with the economy. Stephen McNeil is personally popular and his party has been in government before without disaster.

Therefore, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 23.

NS Liberals in pole position, lead by 22.0 over NDP

Nova Scotia dropped the writ over 2 weeks ago, so this has been a long time coming. CRA is doing daily tracking, but no other company is out polling, so updates will be a bit scarce. That said, there's no question about which party is ahead right now, despite the shaken confidence in opinion polling. Without further ado, here is the first Nova Scotia projection:

NDP       27-31%  [median 28.2]   9-18 seats  [median 12]
Liberal   48-52%  [median 50.2]  29-38 seats  [median 35]
PC        19-22%  [median 20.3]   2- 6 seats  [median  4]
Green      0- 2%  [median  0.8]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 1%  [median  0.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Rationale: The Greens have only fielded 16 candidates out of 51, and will be hard pressed to take more than 1% of the vote. I've penalised them accordingly. There are 7 independents, who will likely take about 0.5% of the vote. These figures will probably not move much.

The debate earlier tonight may move public opinion, but it'll have to be pretty drastic to stop Stephen McNeil's Liberals from winning for the first time since 1998. Currently, they have a > 99% chance of a majority, and there are only 13 days left for their opponents to whittle down their gigantic poll lead. Premier Darrell Dexter will need to hope for an even larger miracle than either Redford or Clark engineered, and PC leader Jamie Baillie may want to start working to just cling onto as many seats as possible.

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 19.

BC final call: weekend campaigning changes nothing

As it is past midnight, it should be safe to post the final BC projection update. From last day polls released by EKOS, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid, it can be inferred that Liberal momentum has stalled, and the NDP will win by a reasonable amount, if not the landslide originally imagined.

The final weighted rolling poll average gives the NDP a 7.0pp lead, enough to secure a comfortable majority:
New Democrat   43-47%  [median 45.4]  46-56 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        36-40%  [median 38.4]  27-37 seats  [median 34]  Green           6-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 1 seats  [median  0] 
Conservative    4- 7%  [median  5.4]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

For the minor points: the Greens should only have a realistic shot in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with Andrew Weaver. The Conservatives really are in no position to win any seats anymore, although they should place second in a couple interior ridings. I still see 2 independents winning, most likely Arthur Hadland in Peace River North and Vicki Huntington in Delta South.

As for the final call...
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

Post-debate: NDP lead drops to 8.0 7.4 7.9pp

Campaigns matter. Debates move votes. The two post-debate polls published today offer proof, as Forum and Insights West both show the lead narrowing by a large amount. The Greens are also ticking up in the weighted rolling average. A couple more polls would be nice to see if it's a blip or whether the debate actually moved support significantly. The new numbers certainly suggest that it's no longer a walk in the park for the NDP like at the writ drop.

EDIT: Angus Reid also published a poll showing a narrowing NDP lead into the single-digits. This does very little except swap one Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat as the poll is actually very much in line with the polling average already.

EDIT 2: Ipsos Reid finally published as well, also with a move toward the Liberals, although with a slightly larger NDP lead much like their last poll. This poll does nothing more than swap that Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat back.

New Democrat   41-47%  [median 44.5]  43-60 seats  [median 51]
Liberal        33-38%  [median 36.6]  23-40 seats  [median 32]
Green           8-11%  [median  9.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Conservative    6- 9%  [median  7.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 17.

Pre-debate: Liberals narrow race, but gap still wide

The final candidates list is out from Elections BC and it appears that the Greens and Conservatives will be fielding just under 60/85 candidates each. Accordingly, both parties will begin to be penalised in the polling average, as with missing candidates it is very hard to achieve the vote share that province-wide polls indicate. The "other" column has therefore grown, and so has the NDP (marginally), but the biggest beneficiary is the Liberals. The polling conducted this week features a rather large array of results so there is extra uncertainty in the numbers but the net effect is the Liberals moving up.

The actual numbers below:
New Democrat   43-49%  [median 47.1]  45-70 seats  [median 57]
Liberal        30-36%  [median 33.8]  15-38 seats  [median 26]
Conservative    7-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Green           7-10%  [median  8.4]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.

While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.

The writ drops: BC NDP start with huge 17.8pp lead

The election has officially begun and so Politically Uncorrect returns to the field of election prediction. The big questions being asked this round:

How big will the NDP majority be? (as it would take an act of God for them to lose, and maybe not even then)
Will the Greens and Conservatives be able to elect MLAs?
How many independents will be elected?

Right now, the best short answers to those questions are landslide, yes, and two, in that order.

Without further ado, the solid numbers:

New Democrat   45-49%  [median 46.8]  55-70 seats  [median 62]
Liberal        27-31%  [median 29.0]  12-28 seats  [median 20]
Conservative   10-13%  [median 11.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Green           9-12%  [median 10.5]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have some strength in the BC Interior and if their slate of candidates includes some credible names in the interior there are a few seats where they could factor in. I'm particularly looking at the BC Peace and the Southern Interior where they placed respectably last election.

The Greens also have potentially enough concentrated support on the South Island to have a shot, given Elizabeth May and Donald Galloway's performances there, but translating federal to provincial support is somewhat of an enigma.

There are 4 strong independent candidates with a chance of winning their seats but with NDP support as strong as it is now they may not all be elected. I'll need to see how good their personal followings are before tweaking the projection.

As for the main result, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 39.

First Quebec projection: PQ leads by 3.5

The Quebec election was actually called some 2 weeks ago, but a dearth of polling has left the projection somewhat delayed. I must clarify that while my spreadsheet objectively projects the vote, I subjectively predict the seats (and adjust the vote % according to likelihood to vote etc.).

A little brief about Quebec politics:

The Liberals (PLQ) are the long-standing federalist option. They're fairly centrist most of the time, and have been the dominant party recently, winning every election but one since the 1995 referendum. They are led by Jean Charest, has been described as having 9 lives. Charest has been premier for 9 years and is certainly the veteran, having survived the ADQ surge of 2007 (which resulted in a minority house with an ADQ opposition).

The Parti Québécois (PQ) are their main separatist competition. They've fought every election since 1970 and have been either government or official opposition in all but two (1970 and 2007). They are led by Pauline Marois. Supporters have nicknamed her la dame de béton (The Concrete Lady) after she survived a party revolt last year.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is a new conservative movement founded by former PQ minister François Legault, who has apparently renounced separation (at least for 10 years). They sit at a strong third, replacing the ADQ late last year. There is historical precedent for a surge in centre-right support (most notably by their predecessors in 2007), and Legault does hold the highest approval rating of all 3 leaders, so this could become interesting.

The Québec Solidaire (QS) is a left or even far-left separatist party "represented" (they don't have leaders) by Amir Khadir and Françoise David. They currently have 1 seat in the National Assembly, and are in the hunt for a second. Their stance on the political spectrum means that they compete for support with the PQ, which limits their competitiveness given their relative lack of establishment.

There are also the Green Party (PVQ) and Option Nationale (ON). Even though ON has one MNA (a defector from the PQ), both parties are not expected to challenge for seats.

And now, the first set of numbers:

Party   Low  Votes(%)  High    Low  Seats  High
PLQ     30     32.2     35     29     43     55
PQ      33     35.7     38     46     63     76
CAQ     21     24.1     27     12     18     31
QS       4      5.5      7      1      1      2
PVQ      1      1.5      2
ON       0      0.5      1
Other    0      0.6      1

The PQ actually manages to squeeze a majority (albeit of only 1 seat) out of this because they have a much more efficient vote distribution. The Liberals pile up massive majorities in the anglophone vote and they usually don't matter very much except on the West Island. So there you have it.

The NDP pleads no contest

That's the story the polls have been telling us about the Saskatchewan provincial election next Monday. Brad Wall of the Saskatchewan Party is an extremely popular incumbent premier riding on the coattails of a hot economy and sustained growth. That the SP is going to win a massive majority on Monday is undisputed. The real question is how many of the province's 58 seats can the NDP reasonably expect to walk away with. Turnout is going to be a major player this election.

Will favourable poll numbers make Sask. Party supporters complacent, and help the NDP keep a few more seats than they would otherwise? Or will psychologically downbeat NDP supporters opt to stay home, exacerbating the SP landslide? Usually in these cases, the party with the big lead sees a late narrowing and a drop in turnout works against them.

The other question is: how low can the Liberal Party go? With only 9 candidates this election cycle, the Liberal is closer to the Western Independence Party than the Green Party. While the polls expects them to take 1.5% of the vote, even 1% could prove difficult (I've tweaked the vote projection to reflect this). It seems the Sask. Party has taken over all of their former support, and the need for a Liberal Party in Saskatchewan could very well be called into doubt.

With that, here is what is most likely the final (and only) projection for the Saskatchewan election.

SP: 60-67%, 44-52 seats; median 63.0%, 46 seats
NDP: 27-34%, 6-14 seats; median 31.5%, 12 seats
Green: 3-5%, 0 seats; median 3.5%, 0 seats
Other: 0-3%, 0 seats; median 2.0%, 0 seats

There are only 3 recent polls for me to work with, so the confidence range is larger than I'd like, but in this case the outcome is nowhere near changeable.

To conclude, Politically Uncorrect projects a SASK. PARTY LANDSLIDE.

Ontario votes, or Why Campaigns Matter

Ontario votes tomorrow. Three months ago, the PCs were sitting pretty, and were, as the media put it, coasting to a victory. Then we had the campaign. During the campaign, PC leader Mr. Hudak was very un-Premier-like. Meanwhile, Premier McGuinty (Liberal) behaved very much like a Premier. This resulted in a gradual shift of momentum towards the Liberals mid-campaign. Polling became very volatile but averaged onto a small Liberal lead, which, due to efficiency in voting (much like the Manitoba NDP yesterday), could win them a third straight majority. Talk about a change in fortunes.

That said, there exists a strong third party in Ontario (something Manitoba lacks). Andrea Horwath's NDP has steadily gained support throughout the campaign. Much of whether Mr. McGuinty gets a majority or not depends on how many votes go to the NDP. Given a shot at a Liberal majority, they may well be able to convince some NDP voters to vote Liberal.

The other factor to whether McGuinty gets another majority is how energized the Liberal and PC votes are. If the PCs get out their vote, they may yet deny McGuinty a majority. Conversely, should the Liberals get out their vote, they will most likely have a majority at the end of the day.

The polling ranges (and accompanying seat ranges if relevant) are like this:
Lib ........ 33-40% ... 47-65 seats
PC ........ 29-36% ... 23-37 seats
NDP ...... 23-29% ... 17-24 seats
Green ....... 2-6%
Other ........ 0-2%

Obviously this is a little ridiculously wide, so I've narrowed that down to more reasonable ranges:
Lib ........ 36-38% ... 53-60 seats (median 37.0%, 57 seats)
PC ........ 32-35% ... 27-34 seats (median 33.3%, 30 seats)
NDP ...... 23-26% ... 17-22 seats (median 24.3%, 20 seats)
Green ....... 3-5% (median 4.4%)
Other ........ 0-2% (median 1.0%)

EKOS decided to toss us a curve ball and release their final numbers late at night. It moves one seat from the PCs to the Liberals. Now the Liberals are expected end up at least one short of a majority, and makes the election somewhat easier to call. That said, election night could still hold surprises and my projection will only be as good as the polls.

Since there is a slightly much better chance of a majority than a minority (even though this is on very thin ice), Politically Uncorrect will go out on a limb and project a LIBERAL MAJORITY. Tomorrow evening will be interesting. There's only one thing I can say: Ontario, democracy is not a spectator sport. Participate. Vote.

PEI aftermath, Manitoba, and how to win the vote but lose the election

Turns out the polls underestimated Conservative support again, so instead of 25-2, it was 22-5. This is becoming habitual. However, at least the call for a Liberal landslide was right. And anyways, having more Conservatives is always a good thing. One semi-shocker from last night: the Greens beat the New Democrats.

Manitoba is next on the list of elections. The campaign has been dull. NDP Premier Greg Selinger is seeking his own electoral victory, and a fourth in a row for the Manitoba NDP, and it seems that he will get it. The PCs under Hugh McFadyen have gained since 2007 but it does not appear to be enough. The Liberals under I-dunno-who-his-name-is are in danger of losing their only seat. Voting is tomorrow, so time for the final call:

NDP ...... 43-46% ... 35-38 seats
PC ........ 42-45% ... 19-21 seats
Lib .......... 7-10% ....... 0-1 seats
Green ....... 3-4%

Politically Uncorrect projects a NDP MAJORITY.

You will notice that the NDP and PC vote ranges overlap; that is, the PCs could conceivably win the popular vote. However, you will also notice that the PCs are not projected to have an overlap in seat count. This is the workings of our oh-so-sensible first past the post system. We divide our map into little districts, and each district elects one representative. This representative wins by virtue of having the most votes. The reason the PCs are expected to perform so poorly with a high vote total is because they pile up useless votes in very safe districts (say...about 65-35), whereas the NDP support is evenly spread enough to win more seats by smaller margins (like 55-45). A win by 10% is still a win, and is exactly the same as a win by 30%. This is why sometimes, electoral reform creeps into my mind. Of course it doesn't take long for common sense to re-assume its place in my brain and quash the idea. I mean, who would want perpetual minority governments being held hostage permanently by splinter groups like...oh...the Liberals?

PEI election projection

The PEI provincial election is tomorrow, and is the first of 5 in 8 days. Premier Robert Ghiz is seeking re-election from his little Island fiefdom and he's pretty popular. There was a bit of a scandal but it never really got much coverage and the general mood is that it was all just political grandstanding. The Liberal Party is still ahead of the PCs by about 20 points, and the NDP is polling dismally and could finish behind the Greens. Apparently PEI didn't get the memo that the rest of the country got about ditching the Liberals.

Anyways, first and final projections:
Lib ....... 52-54% ... 25-26 seats
PC ....... 33-35% ... 1-2 seats
NDP ........ 6-8%
Green ...... 4-6%

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL LANDSLIDE. There is really not much more to say, asides from the fact that there is an outside chance of a clean sweep, which would only be the third time in Canadian and Commonwealth history (precedents include PEI 1935 and New Brunswick 1987).

Requiescat in paces

"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." ~ Jack Layton, Leader of the NDP and Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, August 20, 2011

Yesterday was a sad day for us all, as we learned of the passing of Jack Layton. These last words from his letter to Canadians two days before his passing are words we can all agree with. What he loves, what he hopes for, what he is optimistic for may not be what all of us love, hope for, and are optimistic for; but his last words encompass the person he truly was. He stood for all that, and more. He was genuine and sincere, in the face of politics, and to the very end, he worked for Canada, and that is to be respected.

While I may not agree with his party, his opinions, and his policies, I will still miss 'Smiling Jack,' as he was known, for what he brought to Canadian politics. I will mourn his loss as a fellow Canadian and human being. Ever since I began to follow politics, Jack Layton has been there. Sometimes he brought real ideas, but sometimes they were (no offense) a joke. He made us think and he made us laugh -- and usually when that happened he laughed with us.

With a Conservative majority, an NDP opposition, the Liberals battered, the Bloc crushed, and the Greens represented, the last election already represented a sea-change from the Canadian politics that I knew. Harper and Layton remained the only constants. Now even Layton isn't around anymore...Canadian politics is about to take on a whole new look. Jack would have wanted us to look forward, so now we ask, "What's next?"

Prime Minister Harper's offer of a state funeral, although out of the ordinary, is nothing more than what Mr. Layton deserves. May he rest in peace.

41st Canadian federal election - post mortem

As results trickled in last night, boy was everyone shocked. First of all, while squeaking out a majority was considered a possibility, nobody expected 167 seats. Toronto, thank you. Next, while the NDP surge was quite properly predicted, it was still a meteoric rise and a historic moment. Third, the Liberal decimation was even worse than what most expected - even Ignatieff lost his seat. Fourth, nobody thought the Bloc would be so inefficient in its vote distribution - 23% of the vote and only 4 seats, Duceppe not included. Fifth and finally, Elizabeth May finally won her seat. There was actually a riding poll showing her in the lead, but it was commissioned by the Greens and I was skeptical.

The polls...to put it bluntly, failed miserably. Especially on the Conservative share. They were good for Quebec, but wildly off (underestimating the Tories) in every other region. While I corrected for some of that by giving the Tories an extra percent of the vote, while penalizing the NDP by two, it was still not enough. At 152 seats in the projection, I was actually among the least bad. I had a total error of 38 seats, compared with the 40's and even 50's for many. This sort of sea-change election validates my experiment with projecting ranges. Even with ranges, however, the Bloc fell outside of the range in terms of seats and the Conservatives broke the ceiling of their vote share range.

This calls for the question - was it the projection model's fault? Plugging in the ACTUAL results into the model, I get precisely 167 Conservatives. However, I would have underestimated the Liberals, giving them 26 seats. The NDP would have received 104 seats, and the Bloc 11. I would have been right about no independent, but still wrong about Elizabeth May. That's a total error of 18 - much improved over the polling numbers, meaning that it was mostly the pollsters' fault.

All in all, this was a failed call because I missed the most important detail - majority or minority. Oh well...at least I got the order of the parties right.