Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Newfoundland and Yukon vote

Just managing to barely squeak in the final call before the polls close in Newfoundland and Labrador later this evening. The result, like PEI, is pretty much a foregone conclusion. The PCs are polling in the mid-50's and we can expect to see them there with anywhere from 38-44 of the 48 seats (median 41). The NDP appears poised to form the Official Opposition for the first time ever, having overtaken the Liberals in polling. They should take anywhere between 2-8 seats (median 5), which is actually a very big range given the absolute number of seats. This is to be expected with such a huge jump in the polls, and the rather large variations being reported in the St. John's region. The Liberals should take anywhere between 1-4 seats (median 2).

Politically Uncorrect projects a PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE LANDSLIDE.

Onto the Yukon:
There, the conservative Yukon Party is, like the NL PCs, seeking a third term in office. They were polling dismally last year, but after a leadership change appear to have revived their fortunes. Meanwhile, the NDP are, as they have been all over Canada, on the rise. Both these parties are near the mid-upper 30s, and it appears to be anybody's guess as to who will win tonight. The Liberal Party, at least according to the polls, are a ways behind, but not completely out of it yet. That said, the pollster for the Yukon, DataPath Systems, doesn't exactly boast a great track record. However, to take things at face value, the NDP and Yukon Party appear tied at the moment with the incumbency bonus and the likely voters advantage both going to the Yukon Party. It therefore would appear that the odds are slightly more favourable than not for the Yukon Party to win tonight. Yukon Party 8-12 (10), NDP 5-9 (7), Liberal 0-4 (2).

Politically Uncorrect will go on the record to project the YUKON PARTY MAJORITY, but this is more just for fun.

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