Pre-debate: Liberals narrow race, but gap still wide

The final candidates list is out from Elections BC and it appears that the Greens and Conservatives will be fielding just under 60/85 candidates each. Accordingly, both parties will begin to be penalised in the polling average, as with missing candidates it is very hard to achieve the vote share that province-wide polls indicate. The "other" column has therefore grown, and so has the NDP (marginally), but the biggest beneficiary is the Liberals. The polling conducted this week features a rather large array of results so there is extra uncertainty in the numbers but the net effect is the Liberals moving up.

The actual numbers below:
New Democrat   43-49%  [median 47.1]  45-70 seats  [median 57]
Liberal        30-36%  [median 33.8]  15-38 seats  [median 26]
Conservative    7-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Green           7-10%  [median  8.4]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.

While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.