BC by-elections

There are two by-elections taking place today and I thought I'd get my projections in despite hesitating to make any predictions so far. In BC's political culture and history, by-elections are generally used by voters to vent against the incumbent government; therefore, in the last 4 decades only 2 by-elections have been won by the government. From what I see of it, and with no local polling to work with, here are the Politically Uncorrect projections:

Port Moody-Coquitlam
Former mayor Joe Trasolini is popular in this riding and is the star candidate for the NDP. Given the Liberals' (fielding Dennis Marsden) unpopularity this should be a cakewalk for Trasolini. The BC Conservatives (running Christine Clarke) aren't expected to do well in this type of riding unless the Liberal vote really craters but Marsden appears to be holding his own.
Politically Uncorrect projects:

Liberal      (25-35%) LOSS
New Democrat (45-55%) GAIN

Conservative (15-25%)

Chilliwack-Hope
This one is very interesting. The federal NDP ran Gwen O'Mahoney in the federal election in this area and she earned a very respectable 33% for them in this strongly conservative riding. The BCNDP are going with the same candidate and she's expected to hold on to most of that vote. The Liberals, fearful of an exodus to the right, nominated Laurie Throness, adviser and friend of former federal Conservative MP for the region, Chuck Strahl. However, that doesn't seem to have helped as the Conservatives have a star candidate in criminologist John Martin, who, according to most reports, have siphoned off a (potentially very) large chunk of the Liberal vote. Basically anything result could be returned in this riding tomorrow evening and the order of the parties could even be wrong. The Liberals can hold, the Tories can steal, and the Dippers could come up the middle if the centre-right vote splits almost exactly in half. It all depends on voter turnout and each party's GOTV strength.
Politically Uncorrect (reluctantly) projects:

Liberal      (30-40%) HOLD

New Democrat (25-35%)

Conservative (30-40%)

What the results will say about each party is up in the air, since by-elections are normally not very good indicators of province-wide mood. However, there are clear best and worst case scenarios for each party.

For the Liberals: Holding C-H and finishing at the upper end of that range in PM-C would really be a boon for Christy Clark and her team. On the other hand, if they finish third in C-H and are threatened by the Tories in PM-C then it could accelerate the exodus of their supporters to the Tories.

For the NDP: They are the only team that has any hope of winning both contests and obviously that would be their best cast scenario. On the other hand, if the Liberals even come close in PM-C, and they finish a distant third in C-H, it could mean that their base still isn't motivated enough to vote.

For the Conservatives: A victory in C-H would really cement their legitimacy as a major player, but even two strong showings (say, average vote of 25%) would do the trick. On the other hand, if they finish third in both ridings, it would mean they lack both the organisation and readiness for the big leagues, especially after the rather unwisely hyped-up expectations in Chilliwack-Hope.