Ontario Final Call

Last update, it looked as though the OLP might have been heading for a bit of a comeback under Kathleen Wynne. Then the debate happened, and Hudak stopped the bleeding. A barrage of polls were released, up until the final hour before the publication ban, and the picture remains as unclear as it was when the election began. The numbers, as they stand:

OLP    34-39% [median 36.6] ( = ) 34-53 seats [median 44] (4)
OPC    35-40% [median 37.8] (0.9) 37-52 seats [median 44] (3)
ONDP   18-22% [median 20.5] (0.3) 15-23 seats [median 19] (1)
Green   2- 5% [median  4.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.4)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)

There are two camps which the polls have split into:

IVR (EKOS and Forum): They have the Liberals ahead by a fair margin, possibly enough to eke out a majority government, and the NDP relatively low (below 20).

Online (Abacus, Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, Oracle): They have the PCs either tied are slightly ahead, but the NDP rather higher (near 25).

As it stands, I'm going to go with the online firms on the PCs and Liberals, and edge closer to the IVR firms for the NDP score. There are several reasons for this. Having supporters that actually vote is key in elections where turnout is getting lower and lower. The Tories traditionally have that edge here, and I envision it continuing. That said, this effect will be somewhat counteracted by the bonus that incumbent governments usually get, and the PCs will probably just barely edge the Liberals in votes.

Regarding the NDP, they caused an election that nobody wanted, and voters won't take too kindly to that. Add to the fact that Horwath has been criticised for being too right wing, and NDP supporters might not feel inclined to vote. The fly in the ointment is, these NDP supporters may instead vote Liberal to block the PCs. However, in such a close race, I believe the PCs themselves will be motivated to come out and try and win this thing.

As it stands, the ranges for either frontrunners fall just short of a majority, but it's not out of the question (just highly unlikely). Tomorrow evening promises to be extremely interesting.

For the first time since the start of this blog, Politically Uncorrect projects...A TIE?!