When Pauline Marois called this election, she did so because she thought she could win a majority. As we enter week 4 of the campaign, all signs now point to that having backfired.
Spectacularly so, if we're to believe Forum Research, who once again have muddied the waters with a ground-breaking opinion poll showing a completely different race. Their firm has, in previous elections, also shown somewhat dubious numbers, to a mixed degree of success.
That the PQ campaign is struggling is not in question. The trends in other polls reflect this too. Recently, they have had trouble staying on message, and have lurched from issue to issue trying to find their footing. They have even gone so far as to suggest students from other provinces are trying to hijack the election through voter fraud. The demographic which is least likely to vote. Within hours, the chief electoral officer debunked that myth.
However, what is doubtful is that the Liberals have suddenly opened up a 13 point gap (instead of about 5 like everybody else is showing) and are cruising toward a victory. Fortunately, this is where the weighted rolling poll average comes in to smooth the wild swings:
PQ 32-37% [median 34.6] (1.1) 42-61 seats [median 53] (5)
PLQ 39-44% [median 41.4] (2.1) 58-76 seats [median 66] (5)
CAQ 12-15% [median 13.5] ( = ) 2- 5 seats [median 4] (=)
QS 7-10% [median 8.3] (0.4) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.3) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 1% [median 0.5] (0.3) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
The Liberals have once again picked up 5 seats at the expense of the PQ, although they may come back down a bit once new surveys are released. The Greens failed to put up a full slate of candidates, and the new numbers reflect this.
One question remains, though: is it the PQ or Forum who are headed toward a monumental cock-up?
For today, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 7.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Liberal momentum builds ahead of debate
Two new polls (CROP & Ipsos) agree: Most Quebecers do not want another sovereignty referendum, but believe the PQ would hold one if they win a majority, therefore, they are moving to the Liberals. Couillard has, so far, successfully managed to frame the PQ as focused on another referendum. He has picked up support from the nervous voters previously in the CAQ
camp, because they see the Liberals as the best shot at stopping the PQ. Of course, PQ candidates attacking kosher or halal foods and comparing circumcision and baptism to rape didn't really help Marois.
To that end, the recruitment of PKP as a candidate has come back to bite Marois in the rear. The move was hailed as a game changer; and it may yet be, just not in the way Marois envisioned. She's trying to reframe her party's message around the controversial secular charter. That was evident when she sent minister Drainville out to talk exclusively about it. That will, no doubt, be part of her game plan in tomorrow's debate, on top of attacking the PLQ as the party of backroom deals and stuffed envelopes (a la Charest). Although, since this is the Couillard era, and not Charest, one wonders how effective that line of attack will be.
Look also for Francois Legault to attack Couillard more than Marois. He pretty much knows he's in no position to form government, and will now be simply trying to re-attract support. Given that a lot of that is moving to the Liberals, Legault will be swinging hard at Couillard.
This election looks increasingly likely to be determined by who sets the agenda, and not by the actual policy. If Couillard can keep the focus on the PQ's separatist roots, he will have the upper hand. The same can be said for Marois if she manages to redirect the message to secularism. Should Legault manage to worm himself in and talk about the economy, he may be able to prevent anybody from winning a majority and salvage a few seats.
For now, though:
PQ 33-38% [median 35.7] (1.7) 49-66 seats [median 58] (5)
PLQ 37-42% [median 39.3] (1.9) 52-70 seats [median 61] (5)
CAQ 12-15% [median 13.5] (0.8) 2- 5 seats [median 4] (=)
QS 7-10% [median 8.7] (0.7) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 1.1] (0.2) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Politically Uncorrect now projects a LIBERAL MINORITY (short 2).
To that end, the recruitment of PKP as a candidate has come back to bite Marois in the rear. The move was hailed as a game changer; and it may yet be, just not in the way Marois envisioned. She's trying to reframe her party's message around the controversial secular charter. That was evident when she sent minister Drainville out to talk exclusively about it. That will, no doubt, be part of her game plan in tomorrow's debate, on top of attacking the PLQ as the party of backroom deals and stuffed envelopes (a la Charest). Although, since this is the Couillard era, and not Charest, one wonders how effective that line of attack will be.
Look also for Francois Legault to attack Couillard more than Marois. He pretty much knows he's in no position to form government, and will now be simply trying to re-attract support. Given that a lot of that is moving to the Liberals, Legault will be swinging hard at Couillard.
This election looks increasingly likely to be determined by who sets the agenda, and not by the actual policy. If Couillard can keep the focus on the PQ's separatist roots, he will have the upper hand. The same can be said for Marois if she manages to redirect the message to secularism. Should Legault manage to worm himself in and talk about the economy, he may be able to prevent anybody from winning a majority and salvage a few seats.
For now, though:
PQ 33-38% [median 35.7] (1.7) 49-66 seats [median 58] (5)
PLQ 37-42% [median 39.3] (1.9) 52-70 seats [median 61] (5)
CAQ 12-15% [median 13.5] (0.8) 2- 5 seats [median 4] (=)
QS 7-10% [median 8.7] (0.7) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 1.1] (0.2) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Politically Uncorrect now projects a LIBERAL MINORITY (short 2).
Monday, March 17, 2014
Week 3: debate prep
Leger released a poll last Friday which I didn't get a chance to put into the projection, but it basically confirms to close race. There's a little bit of good news for everyone, except the CAQ.
So, the numbers:
PQ 34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ 34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 45-64 seats [median 56] (1)
CAQ 12-16% [median 14.3] (1.2) 3- 5 seats [median 4] (1)
QS 6- 8% [median 8.0] (0.7) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.9] ( = ) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
The Liberals picked up a seat from the CAQ. The most troubling news for the CAQ is that they have no one region of strength anymore, since the Quebec City region is moving away from them in favour of the Liberals. It looks as though the sovereignty talk has moved some warier people into the federalist option. What's interesting is of the remaining CAQ backers, they prefer the Liberals 43-17 over the PQ as a second choice. Philippe Couillard has a clear path to victory. Whether he is successful in attracting these CAQ voters remains to be seen.
Pauline Marois still has enough francophone support to win an election, with a decent shot at a majority. However, it's clear that she can't rest on her laurels yet. With such a close race, Thursday's debate will be key. We'll likely see if that manages to shake things up the week after.
For now, Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.
So, the numbers:
PQ 34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ 34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 45-64 seats [median 56] (1)
CAQ 12-16% [median 14.3] (1.2) 3- 5 seats [median 4] (1)
QS 6- 8% [median 8.0] (0.7) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.9] ( = ) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
The Liberals picked up a seat from the CAQ. The most troubling news for the CAQ is that they have no one region of strength anymore, since the Quebec City region is moving away from them in favour of the Liberals. It looks as though the sovereignty talk has moved some warier people into the federalist option. What's interesting is of the remaining CAQ backers, they prefer the Liberals 43-17 over the PQ as a second choice. Philippe Couillard has a clear path to victory. Whether he is successful in attracting these CAQ voters remains to be seen.
Pauline Marois still has enough francophone support to win an election, with a decent shot at a majority. However, it's clear that she can't rest on her laurels yet. With such a close race, Thursday's debate will be key. We'll likely see if that manages to shake things up the week after.
For now, Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Was PKP a bit of an own goal by the PQ?
Bob Rae had the line of the
day Friday when he said that a Quebec civil servant or a trade unionist voting
for Pierre-Karl Peladeau (nicknamed PKP) would be "like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders." Witty soundbite regardless,
he has a point. The PQ has sold itself out by courting a corporate media
czar in an attempt to shore up their own economic credentials.
A star candidate and a former president and CEO such as Peladeau will not be content to sit as a mere backbencher. If the PQ is re-elected, he will almost certainly feature in the cabinet. But, attempting to forge a cabinet out of social democrats and economic conservatives is like adding oil to water. The two will not mix well.
So what is Pauline Marois counting on, then? What would be the proverbial glue on which she is depending to hold a team together? As expounded on in the last post, traditional left-right politics plays second fiddle to sovereigntist-federalist politics in Quebec. Marois is likely hoping that the common goal of an independent Quebec will be enough to keep her future cabinet on the straight and narrow.
That much was evident when, during Peladeau's announcement on Monday, he proudly declared, "I am a sovereigntist!" This was followed by Marois' very public musings on the workings of an independent Quebec. However, Thursday morning came along, and with polls showing sovereignty working against the PQ, Marois and Peladeau quickly changed their tune.
During Thursday's press conference, Peladeau refused to answer any questions about sovereignty, and at one point even appeared frustrated and tried to redirect the questions toward the economy. Marois abruptly stopped mentioning Quebec as a nation. Such is the power of public opinion.
However, if sovereignty as a focusing point is wrenched away from the PQ, we return to the original question: what, exactly, does the PQ now stand for? With the entry of Peladeau, the waters are muddied. The whole point of bringing him on board was to show that the PQ isn't only a party of trade unionists and social democrats.
But is that really such a good idea, or has Marois only found a wedge to drive within her own party? If she wins this election, will she have only given herself future headaches trying to head a fractious cabinet? And if she fails, or even wins just a minority, will inviting PKP only have served to open the door to a leadership challenge, painful both personally and to the party?
Clearly, Bob Rae hit a sensitive spot Friday morning. Otherwise, Marois would not have taken exception to his quip, and told him to "mind [his] own business."
A star candidate and a former president and CEO such as Peladeau will not be content to sit as a mere backbencher. If the PQ is re-elected, he will almost certainly feature in the cabinet. But, attempting to forge a cabinet out of social democrats and economic conservatives is like adding oil to water. The two will not mix well.
So what is Pauline Marois counting on, then? What would be the proverbial glue on which she is depending to hold a team together? As expounded on in the last post, traditional left-right politics plays second fiddle to sovereigntist-federalist politics in Quebec. Marois is likely hoping that the common goal of an independent Quebec will be enough to keep her future cabinet on the straight and narrow.
That much was evident when, during Peladeau's announcement on Monday, he proudly declared, "I am a sovereigntist!" This was followed by Marois' very public musings on the workings of an independent Quebec. However, Thursday morning came along, and with polls showing sovereignty working against the PQ, Marois and Peladeau quickly changed their tune.
During Thursday's press conference, Peladeau refused to answer any questions about sovereignty, and at one point even appeared frustrated and tried to redirect the questions toward the economy. Marois abruptly stopped mentioning Quebec as a nation. Such is the power of public opinion.
However, if sovereignty as a focusing point is wrenched away from the PQ, we return to the original question: what, exactly, does the PQ now stand for? With the entry of Peladeau, the waters are muddied. The whole point of bringing him on board was to show that the PQ isn't only a party of trade unionists and social democrats.
But is that really such a good idea, or has Marois only found a wedge to drive within her own party? If she wins this election, will she have only given herself future headaches trying to head a fractious cabinet? And if she fails, or even wins just a minority, will inviting PKP only have served to open the door to a leadership challenge, painful both personally and to the party?
Clearly, Bob Rae hit a sensitive spot Friday morning. Otherwise, Marois would not have taken exception to his quip, and told him to "mind [his] own business."
Monday, March 10, 2014
Week 2 starts with a bang: why traditional left/right politics don't work in Quebec
Today's news centred around Pierre-Karl Peladeau, CEO and president of Quebecor Media and Sun Media. Generally seen as right-wing, Peladeau shocked the political world today by announcing his candidacy with the PQ, the same party closely tied to unions, the same party widely labelled as left.
But that's just it. In Quebec, left/right politics plays second fiddle to none other than the issue of sovereignty. That's why Lucien Bouchard was a federal Progressive Conservative minister turned leader of the Bloc turned PQ premier; why Francois Legault, a former Bouchard minister, is now leader of the CAQ; why Tom Mulcair, federal NDP leader, was a minister under Jean Charest's Quebec Liberals, who himself was leader of the federal PCs.
While, in theory, the PQ and the PLQ are a little left and right of centre, respectively, in practice they have been centrist. Their governing styles have not been much different, save for on matters of culture, language, and nationhood. It is for this reason that voters on both sides of the spectrum feel they belong to these parties, under the banner of either "sovereigntist" or "federalist."
It's also why the CAQ (or its predecessor the ADQ) never did too well, except in that massive protest vote in 2007. It's not because the Quebecois are any "more liberal" than the rest of Canada. The CAQ are, officially, soft nationalists; neither sovereigntist nor federalist. Their raison d'etre is economic conservatism, but economic conservatives have already found a home in either the PQ or the PLQ, and for the most part, they're content. If not, sovereignty or federalism serves as a force compelling them to stay, despite minor grievances.
We'll probably see by the Friday update whether today's news has impacted the parties' support. For today, a CROP poll this weekend confirms the close race. The only difference is a slightly higher number for the CAQ. And so:
PQ 34-40% [median 37.2] (0.9) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ 34-40% [median 37.2] (0.9) 44-63 seats [median 55] (=)
CAQ 13-17% [median 15.5] (1.6) 4- 8 seats [median 5] (=)
QS 6- 8% [median 7.3] (0.3) 2- 2 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 1.0] ( = ) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] ( = ) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.
But that's just it. In Quebec, left/right politics plays second fiddle to none other than the issue of sovereignty. That's why Lucien Bouchard was a federal Progressive Conservative minister turned leader of the Bloc turned PQ premier; why Francois Legault, a former Bouchard minister, is now leader of the CAQ; why Tom Mulcair, federal NDP leader, was a minister under Jean Charest's Quebec Liberals, who himself was leader of the federal PCs.
While, in theory, the PQ and the PLQ are a little left and right of centre, respectively, in practice they have been centrist. Their governing styles have not been much different, save for on matters of culture, language, and nationhood. It is for this reason that voters on both sides of the spectrum feel they belong to these parties, under the banner of either "sovereigntist" or "federalist."
It's also why the CAQ (or its predecessor the ADQ) never did too well, except in that massive protest vote in 2007. It's not because the Quebecois are any "more liberal" than the rest of Canada. The CAQ are, officially, soft nationalists; neither sovereigntist nor federalist. Their raison d'etre is economic conservatism, but economic conservatives have already found a home in either the PQ or the PLQ, and for the most part, they're content. If not, sovereignty or federalism serves as a force compelling them to stay, despite minor grievances.
We'll probably see by the Friday update whether today's news has impacted the parties' support. For today, a CROP poll this weekend confirms the close race. The only difference is a slightly higher number for the CAQ. And so:
PQ 34-40% [median 37.2] (0.9) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ 34-40% [median 37.2] (0.9) 44-63 seats [median 55] (=)
CAQ 13-17% [median 15.5] (1.6) 4- 8 seats [median 5] (=)
QS 6- 8% [median 7.3] (0.3) 2- 2 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 1.0] ( = ) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] ( = ) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.
Friday, March 7, 2014
It's a tie! Or is it?
End of week update. I'd like to hold to a Friday and Monday posting schedule this election cycle, unless a huge slew/barrage of polls show up.
Anyway, a Forum poll came out yesterday and moved the projection a little. The regional breakdowns are a little odd, but not totally out of line. Good poll for the PLQ.
The new numbers (changes in brackets, red means loss):
PQ 35-41% [median 38.1] (0.3) 56-75 seats [median 63] (2)
PLQ 35-41% [median 38.1] (2.4) 43-62 seats [median 55] (4)
CAQ 12-16% [median 13.9] (1.6) 3- 7 seats [median 5] (2)
QS 6- 8% [median 7.0] (0.5) 2- 2 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.5) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 1.0] ( = ) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] ( = ) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Even with a tie, the PQ has a much better chance of winning the most seats. Again, this is due to the Liberals piling up useless majorities in Anglo Montreal ridings. However, there are a lot of close races elsewhere, and as the seat ranges demonstrate, almost anything can happen. Also, there is a riding where the independent candidate, an incumbent who left the PLQ, who may be a factor in her seat. That said, currently I believe she is not personally popular enough to hang on over the party-backed candidates.
For now, Politically Uncorrect projects a razor thin PQ MAJORITY of 1.
Anyway, a Forum poll came out yesterday and moved the projection a little. The regional breakdowns are a little odd, but not totally out of line. Good poll for the PLQ.
The new numbers (changes in brackets, red means loss):
PQ 35-41% [median 38.1] (0.3) 56-75 seats [median 63] (2)
PLQ 35-41% [median 38.1] (2.4) 43-62 seats [median 55] (4)
CAQ 12-16% [median 13.9] (1.6) 3- 7 seats [median 5] (2)
QS 6- 8% [median 7.0] (0.5) 2- 2 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.5) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 1.0] ( = ) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] ( = ) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Even with a tie, the PQ has a much better chance of winning the most seats. Again, this is due to the Liberals piling up useless majorities in Anglo Montreal ridings. However, there are a lot of close races elsewhere, and as the seat ranges demonstrate, almost anything can happen. Also, there is a riding where the independent candidate, an incumbent who left the PLQ, who may be a factor in her seat. That said, currently I believe she is not personally popular enough to hang on over the party-backed candidates.
For now, Politically Uncorrect projects a razor thin PQ MAJORITY of 1.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Ready, set, go! Quebec votes on April 7
Eighteen months into her minority mandate, Pauline Marois (PQ) has pulled the plug on her own government in an attempt to secure a majority, on the back of her "secular charter" bill. While English Canada spurned this controversial (some have called it xenophobic) piece of legislation, it became increasingly popular among francophones, which, unsurprisingly, are the key demographic of Quebec elections.
A review of the parties:
PQ - Sovereigntist, centre-left party (Pauline Marois)
PLQ - Federalist, centrist party (Philippe Couillard)
CAQ - Nationalist, centre-right party (Francois Legault)
QS - Sovereigntist, far left party (Francoise David & Andres Fontecilla)
ON - Splinter party from the PQ (Sol Zanetti)
PVQ - Green (Alex Tyrrell)
The first numbers from the weighted rolling poll average:
PQ 35-40% [median 37.8] 56-78 seats [median 65]
PLQ 33-38% [median 35.7] 38-60 seats [median 51]
CAQ 14-17% [median 15.5] 5- 9 seats [median 7]
QS 7- 9% [median 7.5] 2- 2 seats [median 2]
ON 0- 2% [median 1.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
PVQ 0- 2% [median 1.0] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
The PQ has a slight electoral advantage due to the francophone vote, as mentioned above. On the other hand, the Liberals pile up massive (and useless) majorities in the anglophone Montreal constituencies.
With this reasoning, Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MAJORITY of 5.
A review of the parties:
PQ - Sovereigntist, centre-left party (Pauline Marois)
PLQ - Federalist, centrist party (Philippe Couillard)
CAQ - Nationalist, centre-right party (Francois Legault)
QS - Sovereigntist, far left party (Francoise David & Andres Fontecilla)
ON - Splinter party from the PQ (Sol Zanetti)
PVQ - Green (Alex Tyrrell)
The first numbers from the weighted rolling poll average:
PQ 35-40% [median 37.8] 56-78 seats [median 65]
PLQ 33-38% [median 35.7] 38-60 seats [median 51]
CAQ 14-17% [median 15.5] 5- 9 seats [median 7]
QS 7- 9% [median 7.5] 2- 2 seats [median 2]
ON 0- 2% [median 1.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
PVQ 0- 2% [median 1.0] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
The PQ has a slight electoral advantage due to the francophone vote, as mentioned above. On the other hand, the Liberals pile up massive (and useless) majorities in the anglophone Montreal constituencies.
With this reasoning, Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MAJORITY of 5.
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