Newfoundland and Yukon vote

Just managing to barely squeak in the final call before the polls close in Newfoundland and Labrador later this evening. The result, like PEI, is pretty much a foregone conclusion. The PCs are polling in the mid-50's and we can expect to see them there with anywhere from 38-44 of the 48 seats (median 41). The NDP appears poised to form the Official Opposition for the first time ever, having overtaken the Liberals in polling. They should take anywhere between 2-8 seats (median 5), which is actually a very big range given the absolute number of seats. This is to be expected with such a huge jump in the polls, and the rather large variations being reported in the St. John's region. The Liberals should take anywhere between 1-4 seats (median 2).

Politically Uncorrect projects a PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE LANDSLIDE.

Onto the Yukon:
There, the conservative Yukon Party is, like the NL PCs, seeking a third term in office. They were polling dismally last year, but after a leadership change appear to have revived their fortunes. Meanwhile, the NDP are, as they have been all over Canada, on the rise. Both these parties are near the mid-upper 30s, and it appears to be anybody's guess as to who will win tonight. The Liberal Party, at least according to the polls, are a ways behind, but not completely out of it yet. That said, the pollster for the Yukon, DataPath Systems, doesn't exactly boast a great track record. However, to take things at face value, the NDP and Yukon Party appear tied at the moment with the incumbency bonus and the likely voters advantage both going to the Yukon Party. It therefore would appear that the odds are slightly more favourable than not for the Yukon Party to win tonight. Yukon Party 8-12 (10), NDP 5-9 (7), Liberal 0-4 (2).

Politically Uncorrect will go on the record to project the YUKON PARTY MAJORITY, but this is more just for fun.

Ontario votes, or Why Campaigns Matter

Ontario votes tomorrow. Three months ago, the PCs were sitting pretty, and were, as the media put it, coasting to a victory. Then we had the campaign. During the campaign, PC leader Mr. Hudak was very un-Premier-like. Meanwhile, Premier McGuinty (Liberal) behaved very much like a Premier. This resulted in a gradual shift of momentum towards the Liberals mid-campaign. Polling became very volatile but averaged onto a small Liberal lead, which, due to efficiency in voting (much like the Manitoba NDP yesterday), could win them a third straight majority. Talk about a change in fortunes.

That said, there exists a strong third party in Ontario (something Manitoba lacks). Andrea Horwath's NDP has steadily gained support throughout the campaign. Much of whether Mr. McGuinty gets a majority or not depends on how many votes go to the NDP. Given a shot at a Liberal majority, they may well be able to convince some NDP voters to vote Liberal.

The other factor to whether McGuinty gets another majority is how energized the Liberal and PC votes are. If the PCs get out their vote, they may yet deny McGuinty a majority. Conversely, should the Liberals get out their vote, they will most likely have a majority at the end of the day.

The polling ranges (and accompanying seat ranges if relevant) are like this:
Lib ........ 33-40% ... 47-65 seats
PC ........ 29-36% ... 23-37 seats
NDP ...... 23-29% ... 17-24 seats
Green ....... 2-6%
Other ........ 0-2%

Obviously this is a little ridiculously wide, so I've narrowed that down to more reasonable ranges:
Lib ........ 36-38% ... 53-60 seats (median 37.0%, 57 seats)
PC ........ 32-35% ... 27-34 seats (median 33.3%, 30 seats)
NDP ...... 23-26% ... 17-22 seats (median 24.3%, 20 seats)
Green ....... 3-5% (median 4.4%)
Other ........ 0-2% (median 1.0%)

EKOS decided to toss us a curve ball and release their final numbers late at night. It moves one seat from the PCs to the Liberals. Now the Liberals are expected end up at least one short of a majority, and makes the election somewhat easier to call. That said, election night could still hold surprises and my projection will only be as good as the polls.

Since there is a slightly much better chance of a majority than a minority (even though this is on very thin ice), Politically Uncorrect will go out on a limb and project a LIBERAL MAJORITY. Tomorrow evening will be interesting. There's only one thing I can say: Ontario, democracy is not a spectator sport. Participate. Vote.

PEI aftermath, Manitoba, and how to win the vote but lose the election

Turns out the polls underestimated Conservative support again, so instead of 25-2, it was 22-5. This is becoming habitual. However, at least the call for a Liberal landslide was right. And anyways, having more Conservatives is always a good thing. One semi-shocker from last night: the Greens beat the New Democrats.

Manitoba is next on the list of elections. The campaign has been dull. NDP Premier Greg Selinger is seeking his own electoral victory, and a fourth in a row for the Manitoba NDP, and it seems that he will get it. The PCs under Hugh McFadyen have gained since 2007 but it does not appear to be enough. The Liberals under I-dunno-who-his-name-is are in danger of losing their only seat. Voting is tomorrow, so time for the final call:

NDP ...... 43-46% ... 35-38 seats
PC ........ 42-45% ... 19-21 seats
Lib .......... 7-10% ....... 0-1 seats
Green ....... 3-4%

Politically Uncorrect projects a NDP MAJORITY.

You will notice that the NDP and PC vote ranges overlap; that is, the PCs could conceivably win the popular vote. However, you will also notice that the PCs are not projected to have an overlap in seat count. This is the workings of our oh-so-sensible first past the post system. We divide our map into little districts, and each district elects one representative. This representative wins by virtue of having the most votes. The reason the PCs are expected to perform so poorly with a high vote total is because they pile up useless votes in very safe districts (say...about 65-35), whereas the NDP support is evenly spread enough to win more seats by smaller margins (like 55-45). A win by 10% is still a win, and is exactly the same as a win by 30%. This is why sometimes, electoral reform creeps into my mind. Of course it doesn't take long for common sense to re-assume its place in my brain and quash the idea. I mean, who would want perpetual minority governments being held hostage permanently by splinter groups like...oh...the Liberals?

PEI election projection

The PEI provincial election is tomorrow, and is the first of 5 in 8 days. Premier Robert Ghiz is seeking re-election from his little Island fiefdom and he's pretty popular. There was a bit of a scandal but it never really got much coverage and the general mood is that it was all just political grandstanding. The Liberal Party is still ahead of the PCs by about 20 points, and the NDP is polling dismally and could finish behind the Greens. Apparently PEI didn't get the memo that the rest of the country got about ditching the Liberals.

Anyways, first and final projections:
Lib ....... 52-54% ... 25-26 seats
PC ....... 33-35% ... 1-2 seats
NDP ........ 6-8%
Green ...... 4-6%

Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL LANDSLIDE. There is really not much more to say, asides from the fact that there is an outside chance of a clean sweep, which would only be the third time in Canadian and Commonwealth history (precedents include PEI 1935 and New Brunswick 1987).