The polling volatility really hasn't improved much, although the gaps are starting to become tighter for all voters. The glaring difference is still Ipsos Reid, which continues to show large PC leads among likely voters. The end result is a very tight race, vote-wise, but of course the OLP has an advantage with distribution (changes from last projection):
OLP 33-40% [median 36.6] (3.7) 35-59 seats [median 48] (9)
OPC 33-40% [median 36.9] (1.6) 32-53 seats [median 41] (6)
ONDP 18-24% [median 20.8] (2.9) 11-22 seats [median 18] (3)
Green 2- 6% [median 4.3] (0.7) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.4] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
The ranges are still a bit large. They'll contract as the election draws nearer. Looking at broader trends, it looks like momentum was with Premier Wynne for a couple weeks, but recently Hudak seems to have stemmed the tide. Horwath is making no headway at all, and her election gambit is looking increasingly foolish.
Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MINORITY, short 6.
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