The Provinces

What with the provincial election in New Brunswick, I thought it would be interesting to look at the current provincial scene.

The Liberals form government in 4 provinces:
British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, Prince Edward Island

The Conservatives (or one of their aliases) form government in 4:
Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador

The NDP form government in 2:
Manitoba, Nova Scotia

Five provinces are going to the polls next year:
Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador.

According to the polls, after these elections, Ontario and Manitoba will fall to the Conservatives.

That brings the government count to 6 Conservative, 3 Liberal, and 1 NDP.

However, also according to the polls, the Liberals are behind the NDP in British Columbia and the PQ in Quebec. According to public opinion, then, the provinces stand at 6 Conservative, 3 NDP, and 1 Liberal - which is, incidentally, the province with the least population.

The provincial Liberals - relevance is SO overrated.

Well that was embarassing...

The last polls of the New Brunswick campaign actually had the PC lead narrowing somewhat...ranging from 4 to 10 points. My rolling average had the PC lead on 7.44 points. David Alward's PCs actually ended up winning by 14.44 points. My projection called for 35 PCs, 19 Liberals, and 1 NDP. The actual result was a PC landslide, 42 to 13, with no NDP candidate elected.

In my defence, the polling conducted was wildly off.

In their defence, the last poll finished a week before election day.

Shawn Graham was the author of his own defeat. Proposing to sell the provincial power company to the separatist province was always going to be popular. Just ask Shawn.

Seriously, it wasn't so much that Alward ran a good campaign, as Graham shooting himself in the foot. Multiple times. All Alward had to do was demonstrate that he had at least normal intelligence. He already had an almost unbeatable advantage - he wasn't Shawn Graham.

Mr. Alward shouldn't drink too much in the coming days. He already has a provincial hangover to deal with, with the nearly $1 billion in debt Graham's government accumulated. He doesn't need a physical hangover on top of that.

Also, with 42 MLAs, Alward's going to have a hard time picking the cabinet. But then again, it's one of those problems you WANT to have, as opposed to the problem of whether to resign or not. Hi Shawn - er, rather - bye Shawn!

NB rolling average: 7.44 point PC lead

I've finally bothered to stick the polling figures into the rolling average calculator, with all the proper weighting for date, accuracy, repeats, and sample size, so these will hopefully be more representative of New Brunswick opinion. The gap seems to have narrowed somewhat in recent days, but the PCs are still comfortably ahead:

PC - 44.85% - 35 seats
Lib - 37.41% - 19 seats
NDP - 10.47% - 1 seat
Green - 5.53%
Alliance - 0.87%
Other - 0.86%

Politically Uncorrect is still projecting a
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

NB rolling average: 9 point PC lead

The rather unsophisticated simple 5-poll rolling average has sent both major parties downwards some, but the story is pretty much the same:

PC - 46% - 36 seats
Lib - 37% - 18 seats
NDP - 10% - 1 seat
Green - 5%
Alliance - 1%

It's still a
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY.

Triple Crown update

It's election day in Sweden and the final polls have been released...so one final update:

The Alliance - 49-52% (175-189)
Red-Greens - 43-46% (153-167)
Sweden Democrats - 3-6% (0-21)

Since the Alliance's confidence interval lies completely above the majority line (175 seats), Politically Uncorrect projects an
ALLIANCE MAJORITY.

NB rolling average: 10 point PC lead

Minor changes to the 5-day rolling average:
PC - 48% (+1)
Lib - 38% (-1)
NDP - 9% (=)
Green - 4% (=)
PA - < 1% (=)

This incremental move serves to move the seat projections incrementally:
PC - 37
Lib - 17
NDP - 1

New Brunswick 2010

Now for something closer to home: New Brunswick is renewing its legislature on Monday the 27th, and CRA has been kind enough to grace us with a daily tracking poll ever since the campaign began.

New Brunswick's legislature is composed of 55 members, and the main parties are the governing Liberals and the opposition PCs. The NDP lies a distant third, and the Greens almost a non-factor. A new party, the People's Alliance, has yet to break out of 0% in the CRA polls, so this will be their last mention on this blog, for now.

The election began very very close, with the two major parties exchanging the lead, and the first 4 days, the gap was never bigger than 1%. The Liberals then managed to hang on to this razor-thin lead for a few days, until on September 7, the PCs tied it up. Immediately a day after, the PCs regained the lead, and after that the wheels fell off the Liberal bus.

There was a leader's debate last night, but since people need time to evaluate leader's performances, we'll probably get a sense of how the debate influenced voting intention tomorrow or Friday. Currently, though, the figures stand at:

PC - 49%
Lib - 37%
NDP - 10%
Green - 4%

The 5-poll average is:

PC - 47%
Lib - 39%
NDP - 9%
Green - 4%

The projection for these numbers:

PC - 36 seats
Lib - 18 seats
NDP - 1 seat

Usual caveats apply: the projection can only be as good as the poll numbers plugged in, but for now, Politically Uncorrect projects a PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY.

The Triple Crown

Sweden is holding elections on Sunday the 19th to renew their 349-member Riksdag. There's the centre-right Alliance governing coalition (made of 4 parties), the centre-left "red-green" coalition (made of 3 parties), and then there's the Sweden Democrats, a far right fringe group.

A bit of history: the centre-left main party, the Social Democrats, were the most successful political group in the Western World. After World War I, they never lost more than 1 election in a row, and formed government about 80% of the time.

This election promises to be a record breaker. The Sweden Democrats are polling over the 4% threshold set for eligibility to win seats, for one, but most significantly, the Social Democrats look set to lose, for the first time, a second election in a row, with all polls showing the Alliance will form a parliamentary majority.

So, with that, a bit of a projection:

The Alliance - 50-54%
Red-Green - 40-44%
Sweden Democrats - 4-7%

The referendum conundrum

After a legal challenge of the validity of the anti-HST petition, where the petition was affirmed, it was sent to a committee of MLAs a couple of weeks ago. Earlier this week, the committee reached a decision: the HST is going to referendum. This looks bad for the Liberals and Gordon Campbell, because it means the HST battle will be protracted, and now has even more potential to damage them further.

Now, note that since Canada and it's provinces operate under constitutional monarchy, power is vested not in the people, but in the crown. Therefore, a referendum is never legally binding on a Canadian government. Of course, this means they can ignore the results of a referendum, but only to their own peril. This is Gordon Campbell's conundrum. Does he respect the wishes of the people?

Well, apparently, he does, as he has announced, sort of, that a simple 50% no vote would move him to abolish the HST. Of course, the definition of "respecting the people" in politics simply means a fear of being voted out.

Now, to his credit, he hasn't flip-flopped on this either. He stated that he believes people will see the benefits of the HST by the time the referendum rolls around and will vote to keep it. In other words, he's going gaga (i.e. his age is finally getting to him).

This is a good time to once again quote that Angus Reid poll. Remember that dismal 12% rating for Gordon Campbell? Well, that would be because of the widespread dissatisfaction with the HST. Apparently currently 70% of the electorate would vote to abolish it, with only 18% support for keeping it. I believe I voiced the opinion that the HST makes economic sense, but it was brought in in a senseless way. People who actually oppose the tax itself might not be in the majority, but coupled with people who didn't like how it was brought in would bring us to the number of 70%. Regardless of why British Columbians oppose the HST, it appears that the overwhelming opinion is that the HST should be abolished, and so the current projection will simply be that "the no vote will take a landslide majority."

However, I cannot as of yet project that the HST will be abolished, otherwise I'd be basing something on the words of a politician, and we all know how wise that would be.

"Wow! That high?"

That was the response of an anonymous interviewee of the Global News report on the fact that Premier Gordon Campbell's approval rating is, according to Angus Reid, 12%. Win.

That's 12% approve, 76% disapprove, 12% undecided, for a net approval of -64.

Seriously, the numbers are not good. This at a time when members of his caucus are publicly musing about whether he should resign. When the Liberal Party is about to convene. This, along with trailing the NDP by an increased margin of 23%, and it might really be the final nail in his coffin. His prospects are about as rosy as a lump of coals.

Gordon Campbell has been in office since 2001. He's been the Olympic premier. He's won 3 majorities. It's been a successful run...up until the HST. It's a logical time to resign, and he probably will, instead of leading the party through election 2013, which is pretty much already a lost cause.

Unless, of course, he wants either his party, or the electorate, to hand him the pink slip.

Which, I might add, we rather want to.