Nova Scotia dropped the writ over 2 weeks ago, so this has been a long time coming. CRA is doing daily tracking, but no other company is out polling, so updates will be a bit scarce. That said, there's no question about which party is ahead right now, despite the shaken confidence in opinion polling. Without further ado, here is the first Nova Scotia projection:
NDP 27-31% [median 28.2] 9-18 seats [median 12]
Liberal 48-52% [median 50.2] 29-38 seats [median 35]
PC 19-22% [median 20.3] 2- 6 seats [median 4]
Green 0- 2% [median 0.8] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Rationale: The Greens have only fielded 16 candidates out of 51, and
will be hard pressed to take more than 1% of the vote. I've penalised them accordingly. There are 7 independents, who will likely take about 0.5% of the vote. These figures will probably not move much.
The debate earlier tonight may move public opinion, but it'll have to be pretty drastic to stop Stephen McNeil's Liberals from winning for the first time since 1998. Currently, they have a > 99% chance of a majority, and there are only 13 days left for their opponents to whittle down their gigantic poll lead. Premier Darrell Dexter will need to hope for an even larger miracle than either Redford or Clark engineered, and PC leader Jamie Baillie may want to start working to just cling onto as many seats as possible.
Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 19.
