Over the past weekend, there was a noticeable shift of support away from the Liberals and to the PCs. That tide, however, as since been stemmed. The NDP also experienced a minor uptick.
While the number of undecideds is still huge, at about 20-25% of the population, it would take nearly all of that to break the NDP's way for them to retain government. Add to that fact that there's no eleventh hour Forum poll showing a suddenly much closer race, and Stephen McNeil looks set to be Premier-elect tomorrow evening:
NDP 27-31% [median 28.9] 10-18 seats [median 14]
Liberal 44-48% [median 46.0] 27-35 seats [median 31]
PC 22-26% [median 23.7] 4- 8 seats [median 6]
Green 0- 2% [median 1.0] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Since the last update, the NDP has edged up 1.0pp and 4 seats, and the PCs have jumped 4.8pp and 2 seats. This was at the expense of the Liberals, who have lost 5.6pp and 6 seats. However, given the Liberals' massive lead over the middle portion of
the campaign, it was much a case of too little, too late for Premier
Dexter.
And so, Politically Uncorrect's final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 11.
And if, by yet another freak of Canadian politics, the NDP manage to retain the seat of government tomorrow, the Leafs will most certainly be the 2014 Stanley Cup Champions. You read it here first.
Monday, October 7, 2013
Thursday, October 3, 2013
NS Libs support solidifies, lead by 23.7
Since last week, the Nova Scotia Liberals have moved up, the PCs have moved down, and the NDP has been stable. Abacus Data has joined CRA in the field, and the results are similar, with the small difference being Abacus has the PCs higher at the expense of the Liberals. Still, the Liberal lead remains massive in both polls.
The fly in the ointment is the high percentage (20-30%) of undecided voters that both firms are recording. This is the primary reason for somewhat large ranges in the projection, but the Liberal lead is large enough that a majority remains the only likely outcome.
NDP 26-31% [median 27.9] 6-16 seats [median 10]
Liberal 48-53% [median 51.6] 31-41 seats [median 37]
PC 17-22% [median 18.9] 3- 5 seats [median 4]
Green 0- 2% [median 1.1] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
The Liberal range extends further down than up, and the NDP extends higher up than down, because governments usually wind up with an incumbency bonus. However, I'm not expecting anything like BC or Alberta despite the high undecided figure because the situation is completely different. In Alberta, the opposition was inexperienced and a bit too far right for comfort. In BC, the opposition leader was not charismatic and his party was untrusted with the economy. Stephen McNeil is personally popular and his party has been in government before without disaster.
Therefore, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 23.
The fly in the ointment is the high percentage (20-30%) of undecided voters that both firms are recording. This is the primary reason for somewhat large ranges in the projection, but the Liberal lead is large enough that a majority remains the only likely outcome.
NDP 26-31% [median 27.9] 6-16 seats [median 10]
Liberal 48-53% [median 51.6] 31-41 seats [median 37]
PC 17-22% [median 18.9] 3- 5 seats [median 4]
Green 0- 2% [median 1.1] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
The Liberal range extends further down than up, and the NDP extends higher up than down, because governments usually wind up with an incumbency bonus. However, I'm not expecting anything like BC or Alberta despite the high undecided figure because the situation is completely different. In Alberta, the opposition was inexperienced and a bit too far right for comfort. In BC, the opposition leader was not charismatic and his party was untrusted with the economy. Stephen McNeil is personally popular and his party has been in government before without disaster.
Therefore, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 23.
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