Tomorrow is by-election night in 3 ridings, so I'll cut right to the chase.
1. Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette (MN):
A thoroughly safe Conservative seat; not much doubt about a Tory victory. It's a race for second place, and if the Liberals can make up that 2.7% gap with the NDP it will serve as a morale boost for Team Iggy. Conservative HOLD.
2. Winnipeg North (MN):
An equally safe seat for the NDP, but second place is safe for the Tories here. The Liberals and the Greens could conceivably fight for third if the Greens have a successful "Get Out The Vote" operation. New Democratic HOLD.
3. Vaughan (ON):
This, at least according to the media, is the race to watch tomorrow. Looking at past vote, this seat should be safe Liberal, but the Conservatives snatched popular former police chief Julian Fantino, and for all intents and purposes this is now anybody's game. The Greens and the NDP will fight for third, but once again only if the Greens have a successful GOTV. Either the Liberals or the Conservatives will place first or second, +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. However, since I have to make a projection, Liberal HOLD.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
The Koreas
As most of you may know, North Korea attacked a South Korean island without reason yesterday. South Korea was understandably panicked. Other countries' reactions were more perplexing. The Swiss stressed their neutrality, the French tried to surrender, the United States started to behave like that upset autistic kid in third grade, China voiced its "extreme displeasure" (they love that term and have expressed it at least 20 times this year), citizens in Hong Kong staged a protest, and Iran called for the destruction of Israel.
Clearly, nations do not base decisions and reactions upon the Word of God. However, in the irony of ironies, they help to fulfill its prophecies. Let us remember that Christ Himself said of the end of days in Matthew 24: 6-7a, "You will hear of wars and rumours of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom."
And so, let us all take a step back, take a deep breath, and stop worrying about impending doom and nuclear war. At least...until the USA and China enter this conflict...on opposite sides.
Clearly, nations do not base decisions and reactions upon the Word of God. However, in the irony of ironies, they help to fulfill its prophecies. Let us remember that Christ Himself said of the end of days in Matthew 24: 6-7a, "You will hear of wars and rumours of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom."
And so, let us all take a step back, take a deep breath, and stop worrying about impending doom and nuclear war. At least...until the USA and China enter this conflict...on opposite sides.
BC Party dissent, a couple provincial polls, and final by-election projections
Last week was not a good week for either major BC political party. The BC Liberals had to fire Energy Minister Bill Bennett after publicly lambasting Premier Gordon Campbell and the NDP caucus whip Katrine Conroy quit by saying that she no longer believes Carole James can lead. Ms. Conroy has a point, and generally most of BC agrees with her. While they hate the Liberals, polls also show they don't like Carole James.
Also, since Bill Bennett has always been somewhat of a loose cannon, the NDP story became much more focused on and it seemed to do its damage. The most recent Mustel poll shows the gap between the NDP and Liberals is now only 5 points: 42 over 37. That's still an NDP majority, but it's much closer than what recent polls have been showing. The Greens are at 10, the Conservatives at 9, and others garner 3% of the vote.
Onto the next provincial poll, Ipsos Reid graced us with numbers for Ontario. Dalton McGuinty's Liberals have dug themselves into a 41-32 hole against the PCs. The NDP is at a strong 20, and the Greens have 7. Interestingly the PCs hold a 7 point lead in TORONTO, so even with 41% they should form a comfortable majority.
Finally, by-elections. Winnipeg North still looks NDP, Dauphin still looks Conservative, and Vaughan...is still a tossup, but I'll go out on a limb and predict a Liberal victory. It's 50/50 at best.
Also, since Bill Bennett has always been somewhat of a loose cannon, the NDP story became much more focused on and it seemed to do its damage. The most recent Mustel poll shows the gap between the NDP and Liberals is now only 5 points: 42 over 37. That's still an NDP majority, but it's much closer than what recent polls have been showing. The Greens are at 10, the Conservatives at 9, and others garner 3% of the vote.
Onto the next provincial poll, Ipsos Reid graced us with numbers for Ontario. Dalton McGuinty's Liberals have dug themselves into a 41-32 hole against the PCs. The NDP is at a strong 20, and the Greens have 7. Interestingly the PCs hold a 7 point lead in TORONTO, so even with 41% they should form a comfortable majority.
Finally, by-elections. Winnipeg North still looks NDP, Dauphin still looks Conservative, and Vaughan...is still a tossup, but I'll go out on a limb and predict a Liberal victory. It's 50/50 at best.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
November 29th by-elections
As promised, I will now make a first attempt at projecting the results of the three by-elections later this month. The two Manitoban ridings are Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette and Winnipeg North. The lone Ontarian riding is Vaughan.
These are by-elections, and so the saying goes, anything can happen. However, that is not the case for Dauphin, which is a solid Conservative seat. Inky Mark won in 2008 with a near 45% margin. Robert Sopuck will HOLD Dauphin for the Conservatives.
Winnipeg North is similarly boring, being a very safe NDP seat. Outgoing MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis won with a margin of over 40% in 2008, so it should be no problem for NDP nominee Kevin Chief. Winnipeg will be a New Democratic HOLD.
Vaughan is where things get a bit more interesting. For all intents and purposes, Vaughan should be a safe Liberal seat. Even though the margin of victory been substantially eroded by the Conservatives since 2004, the margin was still a good 15% in 2008. However, 15% is tepid at best for by-elections, and the Conservatives have nominated an immensely popular former police chief in Julian Fantino. Liberal Tony Genco and Julian Fantino will fight to the wire for this one, and counting could go well into the night. Given the effectiveness of the Conservative GOTV (get out the vote) and Fantino's personal popularity, there could even be a slight Conservative edge. For now, this seat will be classified as a Liberal-Conservative TOSS-UP.
These are by-elections, and so the saying goes, anything can happen. However, that is not the case for Dauphin, which is a solid Conservative seat. Inky Mark won in 2008 with a near 45% margin. Robert Sopuck will HOLD Dauphin for the Conservatives.
Winnipeg North is similarly boring, being a very safe NDP seat. Outgoing MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis won with a margin of over 40% in 2008, so it should be no problem for NDP nominee Kevin Chief. Winnipeg will be a New Democratic HOLD.
Vaughan is where things get a bit more interesting. For all intents and purposes, Vaughan should be a safe Liberal seat. Even though the margin of victory been substantially eroded by the Conservatives since 2004, the margin was still a good 15% in 2008. However, 15% is tepid at best for by-elections, and the Conservatives have nominated an immensely popular former police chief in Julian Fantino. Liberal Tony Genco and Julian Fantino will fight to the wire for this one, and counting could go well into the night. Given the effectiveness of the Conservative GOTV (get out the vote) and Fantino's personal popularity, there could even be a slight Conservative edge. For now, this seat will be classified as a Liberal-Conservative TOSS-UP.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Catching up on the news
Gordon Campbell resigned on Tuesday. I still maintain he's been the best since the 1970's, and that the HST is good economic policy. Now it's just a matter of convincing a majority of the population about the benefits of the HST before the referendum. Tall order. Also, who will be our next premier? More on that as the race heats up.
BHP Billiton's proposal to buy out Potash Corp. was blocked by the federal government. Win for Canada; foreign control over domestic resources was never going to be a good thing. Kudos to Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall for a bang up job being the leading voice of opposition to the deal.
Jim Prentice, federal Environment Minister, resigned today to take a job with CIBC. It's been 9 years since he took up federal office, and he set himself a limit of 10 years. That takes one of the moderates out of the Conservative Party. Great loss.
Three federal by-elections on November 27th. Two in Manitoba, one in Ontario. The Manitoba ones are safe NDP and Conservative. The Ontario one could be a nail-biter between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Typically it would be a safe Liberal seat but the Tories managed to snipe a star candidate, who is reportedly very popular. Full projections to come as the by-elections approach.
BHP Billiton's proposal to buy out Potash Corp. was blocked by the federal government. Win for Canada; foreign control over domestic resources was never going to be a good thing. Kudos to Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall for a bang up job being the leading voice of opposition to the deal.
Jim Prentice, federal Environment Minister, resigned today to take a job with CIBC. It's been 9 years since he took up federal office, and he set himself a limit of 10 years. That takes one of the moderates out of the Conservative Party. Great loss.
Three federal by-elections on November 27th. Two in Manitoba, one in Ontario. The Manitoba ones are safe NDP and Conservative. The Ontario one could be a nail-biter between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Typically it would be a safe Liberal seat but the Tories managed to snipe a star candidate, who is reportedly very popular. Full projections to come as the by-elections approach.
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