The Quebec election was actually called some 2 weeks ago, but a dearth of polling has left the projection somewhat delayed. I must clarify that while my spreadsheet objectively projects the vote, I subjectively predict the seats (and adjust the vote % according to likelihood to vote etc.).
A little brief about Quebec politics:
The Liberals (PLQ) are the long-standing federalist option. They're fairly centrist most of the time, and have been the dominant party recently, winning every election but one since the 1995 referendum. They are led by Jean Charest, has been described as having 9 lives. Charest has been premier for 9 years and is certainly the veteran, having survived the ADQ surge of 2007 (which resulted in a minority house with an ADQ opposition).
The Parti Québécois (PQ) are their main separatist competition. They've fought every election since 1970 and have been either government or official opposition in all but two (1970 and 2007). They are led by Pauline Marois. Supporters have nicknamed her la dame de béton (The Concrete Lady) after she survived a party revolt last year.
The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is a new conservative movement founded by former PQ minister François Legault, who has apparently renounced separation (at least for 10 years). They sit at a strong third, replacing the ADQ late last year. There is historical precedent for a surge in centre-right support (most notably by their predecessors in 2007), and Legault does hold the highest approval rating of all 3 leaders, so this could become interesting.
The Québec Solidaire (QS) is a left or even far-left separatist party "represented" (they don't have leaders) by Amir Khadir and Françoise David. They currently have 1 seat in the National Assembly, and are in the hunt for a second. Their stance on the political spectrum means that they compete for support with the PQ, which limits their competitiveness given their relative lack of establishment.
There are also the Green Party (PVQ) and Option Nationale (ON). Even though ON has one MNA (a defector from the PQ), both parties are not expected to challenge for seats.
And now, the first set of numbers:
Party Low Votes(%) High Low Seats High
PLQ 30 32.2 35 29 43 55
PQ 33 35.7 38 46 63 76
CAQ 21 24.1 27 12 18 31
QS 4 5.5 7 1 1 2
PVQ 1 1.5 2
ON 0 0.5 1
Other 0 0.6 1
The PQ actually manages to squeeze a majority (albeit of only 1 seat) out of this because they have a much more efficient vote distribution. The Liberals pile up massive majorities in the anglophone vote and they usually don't matter very much except on the West Island. So there you have it.
