Pre-debate: Liberals narrow race, but gap still wide

The final candidates list is out from Elections BC and it appears that the Greens and Conservatives will be fielding just under 60/85 candidates each. Accordingly, both parties will begin to be penalised in the polling average, as with missing candidates it is very hard to achieve the vote share that province-wide polls indicate. The "other" column has therefore grown, and so has the NDP (marginally), but the biggest beneficiary is the Liberals. The polling conducted this week features a rather large array of results so there is extra uncertainty in the numbers but the net effect is the Liberals moving up.

The actual numbers below:
New Democrat   43-49%  [median 47.1]  45-70 seats  [median 57]
Liberal        30-36%  [median 33.8]  15-38 seats  [median 26]
Conservative    7-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Green           7-10%  [median  8.4]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.

While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.

The writ drops: BC NDP start with huge 17.8pp lead

The election has officially begun and so Politically Uncorrect returns to the field of election prediction. The big questions being asked this round:

How big will the NDP majority be? (as it would take an act of God for them to lose, and maybe not even then)
Will the Greens and Conservatives be able to elect MLAs?
How many independents will be elected?

Right now, the best short answers to those questions are landslide, yes, and two, in that order.

Without further ado, the solid numbers:

New Democrat   45-49%  [median 46.8]  55-70 seats  [median 62]
Liberal        27-31%  [median 29.0]  12-28 seats  [median 20]
Conservative   10-13%  [median 11.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Green           9-12%  [median 10.5]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have some strength in the BC Interior and if their slate of candidates includes some credible names in the interior there are a few seats where they could factor in. I'm particularly looking at the BC Peace and the Southern Interior where they placed respectably last election.

The Greens also have potentially enough concentrated support on the South Island to have a shot, given Elizabeth May and Donald Galloway's performances there, but translating federal to provincial support is somewhat of an enigma.

There are 4 strong independent candidates with a chance of winning their seats but with NDP support as strong as it is now they may not all be elected. I'll need to see how good their personal followings are before tweaking the projection.

As for the main result, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 39.