BC final call: weekend campaigning changes nothing

As it is past midnight, it should be safe to post the final BC projection update. From last day polls released by EKOS, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid, it can be inferred that Liberal momentum has stalled, and the NDP will win by a reasonable amount, if not the landslide originally imagined.

The final weighted rolling poll average gives the NDP a 7.0pp lead, enough to secure a comfortable majority:
New Democrat   43-47%  [median 45.4]  46-56 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        36-40%  [median 38.4]  27-37 seats  [median 34]  Green           6-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 1 seats  [median  0] 
Conservative    4- 7%  [median  5.4]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

For the minor points: the Greens should only have a realistic shot in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with Andrew Weaver. The Conservatives really are in no position to win any seats anymore, although they should place second in a couple interior ridings. I still see 2 independents winning, most likely Arthur Hadland in Peace River North and Vicki Huntington in Delta South.

As for the final call...
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

Muddied waters: NDP lead shrinks marginally to 6.7pp

The slew of polls (Oraclepoll, Hill & Knowlton, Forum, Justason, Ipsos Reid, and Angus Reid) over the past couple of days has been rather unhelpful, with Forum at one end showing an NDP lead of just 2 and Justason on the other end with an NDP lead of 14. The one thing that is clear is that Green and Conservative support is collapsing back into the NDP and Liberals, respectively, with the Liberals perhaps gaining marginally more. Suffice to say the stakes are high over the final weekend.

For now, the numbers:
New Democrat   42-48%  [median 45.2]  39-61 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        35-41%  [median 38.5]  22-44 seats  [median 34] 
Green           6-10%  [median  8.1]   0- 2 seats  [median  0] Conservative    4- 8%  [median  5.6]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.6]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

We've now moved into the messy realm of overlapping seat ranges. The election has steadily become closer throughout the campaign. That said, the NDP are still overwhelming favourites.

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

Post-debate: NDP lead drops to 8.0 7.4 7.9pp

Campaigns matter. Debates move votes. The two post-debate polls published today offer proof, as Forum and Insights West both show the lead narrowing by a large amount. The Greens are also ticking up in the weighted rolling average. A couple more polls would be nice to see if it's a blip or whether the debate actually moved support significantly. The new numbers certainly suggest that it's no longer a walk in the park for the NDP like at the writ drop.

EDIT: Angus Reid also published a poll showing a narrowing NDP lead into the single-digits. This does very little except swap one Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat as the poll is actually very much in line with the polling average already.

EDIT 2: Ipsos Reid finally published as well, also with a move toward the Liberals, although with a slightly larger NDP lead much like their last poll. This poll does nothing more than swap that Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat back.

New Democrat   41-47%  [median 44.5]  43-60 seats  [median 51]
Liberal        33-38%  [median 36.6]  23-40 seats  [median 32]
Green           8-11%  [median  9.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Conservative    6- 9%  [median  7.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 17.