New Brunswick votes

New Brunswick is going to the polls today, and I've been too busy to follow too closely, but I can't resist making a call anyway. Premier David Alward's Progressive Conservatives are the incumbent government, having won the last election in 2010 by a landslide with 49% of the vote and 42/55 seats. They're seeking re-election to avoid being only the second NB government in history to be relegated to a single term. The opposition Liberals, led by rookie leader Brian Gallant, are seeking to redeem themselves. Meanwhile, Dominic Cardy took over an NDP holding 0 seats and are hoping to change that. On the fringe are the Green Party, and the People's Alliance which I've lumped in with the "Others."

For most of the campaign, it looked as though Brian Gallant was cruising to a landslide victory in a new, streamlined legislature of 49 seats. Their poll lead was often 20+ points, and nothing seemed to shake it. In the final week, controversy over shale gas, fracking, and abortion saw the Liberal lead drop to about 10, but it seemed they were on track for victory nonetheless.

As this was happening, however, Brian Gallant gave an interview with the CBC where he fudged the figures to his own party's tax policy. Subsequently, in a disastrous retake of the interview, the CBC (known to be Liberal-friendly) grilled Gallant mercilessly, generating a massive amount of bad press. Forum then released an eleventh hour poll just last night showing a dead tie, and if they are right, this massive blunder could potentially have been the turning point of the entire election.

And so, the raw numbers:
NBPC   38-43% [median 41.0]  20-30 seats [median 26]
NBLP   39-44% [median 41.6]  19-29 seats [median 23]
NBNDP   9-13% [median 10.8]   0- 1 seats [median  0]
Green   4- 7% [median  5.0]   0- 0 seats [median  0]
Other   0- 3% [median  1.6]   0- 0 seats [median  0]

Whatever the result, this promises to be a very interesting night, with both parties able to form government. It really looks like it's too close to call. However, for the sake of integrity...

The Politically Uncorrect final call: PC MAJORITY of 3.