Last week, Andrew Horwath of the NDP looked at the Liberal budget and decided they could not support this government any longer. As Tim Hudak and the PCs have long refused to support the Liberal minority, Premier Kathleen Wynne requested a dissolution, and an election was called.
I've waited a whole week to do this because the pre-campaign polls were giving zero clarity on the picture, and unfortunately, the campaign period polls are all over the place as well. The only thing I can say is this:
The Liberals or the PCs will either place first or second, plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
With polls either registering anywhere between a 6 point Liberal lead and a 14 point PC lead (although I suspect Ipsos might have put out a bit of an outlier), the best guess right now is the weighted rolling poll average. And so (changes calculated from last election):
OLP 28-38% [median 32.9] (4.8) 22-52 seats [median 39] (14)
OPC 34-43% [median 38.5] (3.0) 35-66 seats [median 47] (10)
ONDP 21-26% [median 23.7] (1.0) 19-27 seats [median 21] ( 4)
Green 2- 6% [median 3.6] (0.7) 0- 1 seats [median 0] ( =)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.3] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] ( =)
After blowing a wide lead last election, one has to wonder how much good will Tim Hudak has left from his own party. Failure to win this time, with a Liberal government that is widely perceived as old, tired, and corrupt, will be fatal to his leadership. Tim Hudak only has one goal for June 12th: win 54 seats or more. He must convince centrist voters that the PCs are no longer the scary/nasty party.
Andrew Horwath's NDP is performing its best in the polls since the Rae victory, but has actually dropped back from their position last year of second or occasionally first. There is a sense that Ontario voters haven't fully forgiven them for the disastrous Rae government, but are almost ready to do so. Horwath must convince voters that they are a serious party that is ready to govern once again. Short of securing the official opposition, Horwath's tenure as leader may be threatened.
Kathleen Wynne's future is less clear. Since taking office, she has sought to distance herself
from the McGuinty years, to mixed success. The lower hanging fruit for
her will be to the left, in soft NDP voters. She must present her party
as the only viable option for government. In other words, she needs to
scare the centre away from the PCs and tell the left that the NDP can't
win. If this election results in another hung parliament, she may attempt to hang on as premier as long as the OLP finishes either ahead of or only a couple seats behind the PCs.
For now, Politically Uncorrect projects PC MINORITY, short 7.
