Finally final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 4.0 over PC

Forum has decided to surprise us with their finally final numbers. It turns out what we thought was their "final" poll wasn't actually their last poll of the campaign. Forum also shows a narrowing of the gap between Wildrose and PC to just 2 points, which narrows the vote projection from a Wildrose lead of 6.0 all the way down to 4.0 points. It also has the effect of greatly increasing uncertainty because it created a huge divergence in the polling firms' conclusions. The election is now expected to look as follows:

Wildrose  37-43%  [median 39.2]  35-60 seats  [median 44]
PC        31-37%  [median 35.2]  21-46 seats  [median 37]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 10.7]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Wildrose is now forecast to have a median at exactly the majority marker, with a range that extends well below. The PCs range now extends all the way up to 46 seats, which gives them some hope of retaining the seat of government, however slim it may be. Forum is standing alone out of all the polling firms out there, but if indeed this is true and there is a last-minute shift, things could be VERY messy tomorrow evening. The 6 seats the NDP and Liberals are projected to win will become very important, and could prove instrumental in deciding who forms government.

For now, Politically Uncorrect will continue to project a Wildrose MAJORITY of 1 SEAT. Let it be stressed, however, that confidence is now extremely low, once again vindicating the use of ranges to project election results.

Final Alberta projection: Wildrose lead 6.0 over PC

As the campaign drew to a close, Danielle Smith's party took a bit of a hit over controversial remarks by her candidates. The PCs tried desperately to turn the focus onto that, but it was too little too late, and the Wildrose Party are expected to end the PC dynasty of 41 years tomorrow. The following is the final projection what Alberta is expected to look like come Monday evening.

Wildrose  39-43%  [median 40.1]  43-60 seats  [median 48]
PC        31-35%  [median 34.1]  21-38 seats  [median 33]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.6]   2- 8 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-13%  [median 11.1]   0- 3 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      0- 2%  [median  1.1]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The majority marker in the 87-seat house is 44 seats. As can be seen, Wildrose's last-week woes have trended their low-range to just below a majority, but even at 43 seats they should easily form government because there likely will be a couple right-wing PCs who will cross the floor to be part of a Wildrose government. Also, since the vast majority of their range is at or above a majority, this is not a difficult call for Politically Uncorrect. There could be one thorn in the side: Liberal and NDP voters migrating en masse at the ballot box to the PCs to keep Wildrose out. Polls have not shown this but it is still a possibility to watch out for.


Nevertheless, Politically Uncorrect's final call is a Wildrose MAJORITY of 9.

BC by-elections

There are two by-elections taking place today and I thought I'd get my projections in despite hesitating to make any predictions so far. In BC's political culture and history, by-elections are generally used by voters to vent against the incumbent government; therefore, in the last 4 decades only 2 by-elections have been won by the government. From what I see of it, and with no local polling to work with, here are the Politically Uncorrect projections:

Port Moody-Coquitlam
Former mayor Joe Trasolini is popular in this riding and is the star candidate for the NDP. Given the Liberals' (fielding Dennis Marsden) unpopularity this should be a cakewalk for Trasolini. The BC Conservatives (running Christine Clarke) aren't expected to do well in this type of riding unless the Liberal vote really craters but Marsden appears to be holding his own.
Politically Uncorrect projects:

Liberal      (25-35%) LOSS
New Democrat (45-55%) GAIN

Conservative (15-25%)

Chilliwack-Hope
This one is very interesting. The federal NDP ran Gwen O'Mahoney in the federal election in this area and she earned a very respectable 33% for them in this strongly conservative riding. The BCNDP are going with the same candidate and she's expected to hold on to most of that vote. The Liberals, fearful of an exodus to the right, nominated Laurie Throness, adviser and friend of former federal Conservative MP for the region, Chuck Strahl. However, that doesn't seem to have helped as the Conservatives have a star candidate in criminologist John Martin, who, according to most reports, have siphoned off a (potentially very) large chunk of the Liberal vote. Basically anything result could be returned in this riding tomorrow evening and the order of the parties could even be wrong. The Liberals can hold, the Tories can steal, and the Dippers could come up the middle if the centre-right vote splits almost exactly in half. It all depends on voter turnout and each party's GOTV strength.
Politically Uncorrect (reluctantly) projects:

Liberal      (30-40%) HOLD

New Democrat (25-35%)

Conservative (30-40%)

What the results will say about each party is up in the air, since by-elections are normally not very good indicators of province-wide mood. However, there are clear best and worst case scenarios for each party.

For the Liberals: Holding C-H and finishing at the upper end of that range in PM-C would really be a boon for Christy Clark and her team. On the other hand, if they finish third in C-H and are threatened by the Tories in PM-C then it could accelerate the exodus of their supporters to the Tories.

For the NDP: They are the only team that has any hope of winning both contests and obviously that would be their best cast scenario. On the other hand, if the Liberals even come close in PM-C, and they finish a distant third in C-H, it could mean that their base still isn't motivated enough to vote.

For the Conservatives: A victory in C-H would really cement their legitimacy as a major player, but even two strong showings (say, average vote of 25%) would do the trick. On the other hand, if they finish third in both ridings, it would mean they lack both the organisation and readiness for the big leagues, especially after the rather unwisely hyped-up expectations in Chilliwack-Hope.

Wildrose lead 8.6pp, time running out for PC

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  39-45%  [median 41.4]  48-61 seats  [median 53]
PC        29-35%  [median 32.8]  20-35 seats  [median 29]
NDP       10-13%  [median 11.4]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal    9-12%  [median 10.6]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 21.

Wildrose expands lead to 9.7, solidly in majority territory

Latest update of Alberta election projection:

Wildrose  40-45%  [median 41.8]  52-60 seats  [median 55]
PC        28-34%  [median 32.0]  20-29 seats  [median 26]
NDP       10-12%  [median 10.8]   3- 7 seats  [median  5]
Liberal   10-15%  [median 11.4]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  2.2]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  1.8]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 23.

Wildrose by 5.6 over PC, pulling even further ahead?

As the Alberta election is well underway, it is high time for the first seat projection. I was going to do this on Sunday, but polling volatility was far too great. Since then a few new polls have been released confirming the actual position. From now on the projections will be updated on Sunday as the election is due Monday the 23rd.

At the start of the campaign, things were neck and neck with the PCs perhaps with a slight lead. Then a few polls came along indicating a large Wildrose lead. This threw the polling average into a bit of disarray but since then the Wildrose lead has consolidated in 4 separate polls so I feel comfortable with the numbers. Personally, though, I must say that I am not happy with them since Wildrose's economic stance is far too free-market for my liking.

Let's get right to it:
Wildrose  36-41%  [median 38.5]  38-52 seats  [median 45]
PC        30-35%  [median 32.9]  30-38 seats  [median 35]
NDP       11-13%  [median 11.8]   3- 7 seats  [median  5] 
Liberal   11-15%  [median 12.6]   0- 7 seats  [median  2]
Alberta    1- 3%  [median  1.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other      1- 3%  [median  2.3]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

Politically Uncorrect currently projects a Wildrose MAJORITY of 3.

That said, once the old polls drop off, Wildrose could be in an even better position. We'll see what week two of the campaign bears. Things are not written in stone. As former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously noted, "a week is a long time in politics."