As this blog hasn't been posted on since early March, there have been interesting bits of electoral news which I have missed out on. Last Saturday, Hong Kong chose a new Chief Executive in C. Y. Leung, and the Australian State of Queensland had an election where the governing Australian Labor Party was wiped out by the conservative Liberal National Party. Closer to home, two provincial by-elections were called for April 19 in Port Moody—Coquitlam and Chilliwack—Hope.
More on that later, but now, the big electoral news: the writ has been dropped in Alberta for April 23, shaping up the most exciting election Alberta has seen since 1993. This election pits the titan 41-year-old Progressive Conservative government against the upstart Wildrose Party, which has surged in the polls since former Premier Ed Stelmach's tenure.
Party profiles:
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
The PCs have always been able to reinvent themselves whenever their leadership grew stale. That's the secret of their prolonged electoral success. With Ed Stelmach unable to recover in popularity, the PCs chose a new leader in Alison Redford. She is solidly in the centrist camp of the party, and so has moved the party decidedly leftward. Will Alison Redford and the PCs be able to right the ship and hold on to power, or will the public deem them too stale after 41 years?
WILDROSE PARTY
They are the main challenger to the PCs, and the first serious competition since the 1993 Liberals. They are running on a hard free market platform, coupled with a libertarian social stance. Wildrose is led by the charismatic Danielle Smith, who has captured public imagination since becoming leader. Will Wildrose's support hold up as desire for change boils, or will disaffected PCs return to the PC fold as serious scrutiny is directed toward Wildrose policies? Will their hard right economics scare some Liberals into the PC fold, as Alison Redford hopes?
LIBERAL PARTY
The Alberta Liberals actually managed a respectable result last election, with over 26% of the vote. They are the Official Opposition, and the fact that they are led by a former PC also should help them. However, their polling numbers have dropped by half into the low teens. Now, they are in a struggle for survival, as hanging on to even one of their 9 urban seats could be a challenge. Can Raj Sherman save his party, or will the PCs move to the centre squeeze out the party's last life?
NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Alberta is not typically friendly to the socialist cause, but the NDP have established a toehold in Edmonton both federally and provincially. Their leader, Brian Mason, is the only one to have fought in the last election. Their support, concentrated and more solid than that of the Liberals, could help them overtake the Liberals as the top left-of-centre choice in Alberta, in seats if not in votes. Can the NDP benefit from an increasingly fractured political scene in Edmonton?
ALBERTA PARTY
A new player, this party was formed by Liberals frustrated at their party's lack of momentum against the PC juggernaut. The party only has one MLA in Dave Taylor, who crossed over from the Liberals. The Alberta Party has not been able to capture public attention, and in some polls is too weak to even register. Will they be able to hang on to their lone seat, or will their lack of organisation send them packing to the political fringe?
The first seat projection for the election will be made once the polling average is up and running.
