Conservative lead 9.5 over NDP, NDP crushes Bloc

Now, you might be thinking, a lead that goes from 14 down to 9 will drop the Conservatives out of majority, right? Well, actually, this decrease in the lead can be explained by several regional variations.

The Conservatives drop a few in Quebec, while the NDP pick up more than a few. This hardly affects the Conservative seat count.

The Conservatives drop a few in the Atlantic. Earlier higher polls could have been just statistical noise, but the effect was still no more than a couple of seats.

The Conservatives held steady in Ontario while the NDP moved up. Since this movement was at the expense of the Liberals, the Conservatives reap the rewards in Ontario.

Loss of a few, gain of a few, and the end result is that the Conservatives are still over the majority marker. Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to lose seats and votes in Ontario, and the NDP finally hits the sweet spot in Quebec - the pay zone where each percent increase in their lead over the Bloc gets a few seats.

Party goals:
The Conservatives - Ontario is key. Keeping most of the seats outside Ontario while continuing to ride high in Ontario will give them the majority they want.

The NDP - Quebec and BC are key. Quebec is key to a rich seat reward. BC could still stop a Harper majority if Ontario backs off Harper a bit.

The Liberals - Ontario is key. This is where they will fight for their Official Opposition status, and to avoid a historic defeat.

The Bloc - Beat back the NDP. Sounds simple, but the Orange Tsunami is just that...a tsunami. It will be hard even to stop.

Seat projections:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 36.99 --- 156 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 63 ---- 7 -- 16
Liberal ---------- 22.26 ---- 49 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 23 ---- 9 --- 9
NDP ------------ 27.45 ---- 82 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 20 --- 38 -- 7
Bloc ------------- 6.54 ----- 20 --------------------------------------- 20 ----
Green ----------- 5.37 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.40 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----

Conservative lead 14.3 over NDP

This update sort of jumped in out of place, but I suppose as the campaign winds down I'll keep a closer eye on the numbers.

Getting to the numbers, nothing really eye-popping today, just the lone Nanos daily tracker, but the movement in a few regions are driving changes today, so without further ado, today's ACTUAL headline...

ONTARIO AND ATLANTIC PROVINCES PROPEL CONSERVATIVES INTO MAJORITY TERRITORY; QUEBEC HANDS NDP OFFICIAL OPPOSITION STATUS

Yes, with today's Nanos poll giving the Conservatives a very large lead in both Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, the polling average shifts them past the magic 155-seat mark. This is, of course, at the expense of the Liberals, and coupled with further NDP gains in Quebec, the Liberals are now sitting in third place in SEATS as well as votes. However, the margin is still extremely small between the Liberals and NDP and just a few hundred votes could decide who's the official opposition come May 3rd. Same caveat could be applied to the Conservative majority. A few hundred votes could make it or break it for them.

And now, the numbers:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 38.20 --- 156 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 60 ---- 9 -- 17
Liberal ---------- 23.71 ---- 55 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 28 ---- 9 -- 10
NDP ------------ 23.93 ---- 59 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 18 --- 19 -- 5
Bloc ------------- 6.73 ----- 37 --------------------------------------- 37 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----

And since the driving force of movement is the Nanos poll, I will give also a detailed table for a one-poll projection:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative -- 39.2 --- 165 ----- 20 ---- 27 ---- 22 ---- 70 ---- 5 -- 21
Liberal ----------- 25.6 ---- 52 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 2 ----- 21 --- 14 -- 7
NDP ------------- 23.6 ---- 58 ----- 11 ------ 1 ----- 4 ----- 15 --- 23 -- 4
Bloc -------------- 6.5 ----- 32 ---------------------------------------- 32 ----
Green ------------ 3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------
Other ------------ 1.5 ------- 1 ----------------------------------------- 1 -----

Conservative lead 14 over NDP [!!!], time running out for majority

I haven't had the time to do one of these projection updates since the start of the campaign, but here we go, with just over a week left. And what a week to do one, with what is beginning to look like the Orange Revolution!

The NDP has OVERTAKEN the Liberal party for second place, even if just barely, in the rolling poll average, and a few more of these polls and they will inch ahead of the Bloc in their home turf! Of course, a general rule in Canadian politics is that the most boring thing will end up happening...so...don't hold your breath yet.

Perhaps this is time to revisit my analysis of the probability of the following scenarios:

Harper majority - With a lack of movement in the polls as the campaign draws to a close, Harper's chance at a majority isn't moving in the right direction - 4.0 (-0.5)

Liberal government - A sharp decline since the debates is not helping the Liberals in their quest to return to power by themselves - 1.5 (-1.5)

NDP official opposition - A strong showing by Layton at the debate precluded skyrocketing poll numbers, especially in Quebec, and the payoff could be handsome - 4.0 (+2.5)

Harper's road Bloc - The NDP is on the verge of a large windfall in Quebec right now, and if the Bloc slips even a bit further they will no longer be in Harper's way - 3.5 (-3.0)

Elected in May - Excluded from the debates and absolutely ignored by the media, the Greens are spinning their wheels to no avail - 1.0 (-1.5)

And perhaps to add a couple previously fantastical situations:

Prime Minister Layton - Should the NDP continues to charge ahead, the leader of the coalition may well be Jack Layton, provided the Liberals and Bloc can stomach it - 1.5 (+1.5)

Liberals in fourth - If the Bloc stops the leakage but Ontario jumps on the NDP bandwagon, the Liberals may well find themselves even deeper into historical disaster - 0.5 (+0.5)

And so, vote and seat averages:

Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 37.91 --- 150 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 56 ---- 9 -- 15
Liberal ---------- 23.78 ---- 60 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 33 ---- 8 -- 11
NDP ------------ 23.95 ---- 55 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 17 --- 15 -- 6
Bloc ------------- 6.92 ----- 42 --------------------------------------- 42 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----