Week 4: monumental cock-up?

When Pauline Marois called this election, she did so because she thought she could win a majority. As we enter week 4 of the campaign, all signs now point to that having backfired.

Spectacularly so, if we're to believe Forum Research, who once again have muddied the waters with a ground-breaking opinion poll showing a completely different race. Their firm has, in previous elections, also shown somewhat dubious numbers, to a mixed degree of success.

That the PQ campaign is struggling is not in question. The trends in other polls reflect this too. Recently, they have had trouble staying on message, and have lurched from issue to issue trying to find their footing. They have even gone so far as to suggest students from other provinces are trying to hijack the election through voter fraud. The demographic which is least likely to vote. Within hours, the chief electoral officer debunked that myth.

However, what is doubtful is that the Liberals have suddenly opened up a 13 point gap (instead of about 5 like everybody else is showing) and are cruising toward a victory. Fortunately, this is where the weighted rolling poll average comes in to smooth the wild swings:
PQ     32-37% [median 34.6] (1.1) 42-61 seats [median 53] (5)
PLQ    39-44% [median 41.4] (2.1) 58-76 seats [median 66] (5)
CAQ    12-15% [median 13.5] ( = )  2- 5 seats [median  4] (=)
QS      7-10% [median  8.3] (0.4)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  0.8] (0.3)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 1% [median  0.5] (0.3)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

The Liberals have once again picked up 5 seats at the expense of the PQ, although they may come back down a bit once new surveys are released. The Greens failed to put up a full slate of candidates, and the new numbers reflect this.

One question remains, though: is it the PQ or Forum who are headed toward a monumental cock-up?

For today, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 7.