Week 3: debate prep

Leger released a poll last Friday which I didn't get a chance to put into the projection, but it basically confirms to close race. There's a little bit of good news for everyone, except the CAQ.

So, the numbers:
PQ     34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ    34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 45-64 seats [median 56] (1)
CAQ    12-16% [median 14.3] (1.2)  3- 5 seats [median  4] (1)
QS      6- 8% [median  8.0] (0.7)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

The Liberals picked up a seat from the CAQ. The most troubling news for the CAQ is that they have no one region of strength anymore, since the Quebec City region is moving away from them in favour of the Liberals. It looks as though the sovereignty talk has moved some warier people into the federalist option. What's interesting is of the remaining CAQ backers, they prefer the Liberals 43-17 over the PQ as a second choice. Philippe Couillard has a clear path to victory. Whether he is successful in attracting these CAQ voters remains to be seen.

Pauline Marois still has enough francophone support to win an election, with a decent shot at a majority. However, it's clear that she can't rest on her laurels yet. With such a close race, Thursday's debate will be key. We'll likely see if that manages to shake things up the week after.

For now, Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.