Quebec final call & scenarios

Forum has, once again, come out with a shocking poll at the last minute. It shows the PQ vote collapsing (24) and the PLQ gaining (44). The CAQ is again much higher (23) and is nipping at the heals of the PQ. Angus Reid also did a poll, their first in Quebec in several years now, showing a similar close race between the CAQ (25) and PQ (27), but with a much lower Liberal score (39).

With these figures, the PQ once again loses seats in the projection:
PQ     25-30% [median 27.0] (1.4) 32-50 seats [median 40] (5)
PLQ    37-42% [median 40.2] (0.9) 60-78 seats [median 70] (1)
CAQ    21-25% [median 22.5] (1.6)  8-18 seats [median 13] (4)
QS      7-10% [median  8.0] (1.3)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 1% [median  0.8] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 1% [median  0.5] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

There are several alternate scenarios which could play out, by decreasing likelihood. The main projection is, of course, still the most likely scenario.

1) Angus Reid was the top performer in the many federal and provincial elections. They're right again, and the CAQ vote ends up very close to the PQ:
PLQ 65-71, PQ 33-39, CAQ 16-20, QS 2-3
The PQ edge in efficiency keeps them well ahead in seats.

2) Liberal ballot box bonus, a la 2012 (or, Forum is right):
PLQ 82-88, PQ 24-30, CAQ 9-13, QS 2
Massive Liberal majority, PQ disaster. Liberal strength keeps CAQ down despite vote over 20%.

3) The PQ completely collapses, CAQ carries momentum to finish ahead (in votes). In this situation, the Liberals also drop a bit:
PLQ 59-65, PQ 29-35, CAQ 25-31, QS 2-4
Liberal majority in question, as well as who gets the Official Opposition. PQ weakness also opens up a third and fourth seat to QS. Most exciting situation.

4) Completely defying momentum and trends, the PQ recovers (obviously least likely):
PLQ 53-59, PQ 51-57, CAQ 11-15, QS 2-3
Government formation impossible to predict, CAQ important with balance of power.

Because of the whirlwind end to the campaign, and the CAQ rebounding to dark horse status, there could be a lot of surprises tomorrow night. Once again, we are reminded that campaigns DO matter.

The Politically Uncorrect final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 15.