It's a tie! Or is it?

End of week update. I'd like to hold to a Friday and Monday posting schedule this election cycle, unless a huge slew/barrage of polls show up.

Anyway, a Forum poll came out yesterday and moved the projection a little. The regional breakdowns are a little odd, but not totally out of line. Good poll for the PLQ.

The new numbers (changes in brackets, red means loss):
PQ     35-41% [median 38.1] (0.3) 56-75 seats [median 63] (2)
PLQ    35-41% [median 38.1] (2.4) 43-62 seats [median 55] (4)
CAQ    12-16% [median 13.9] (1.6)  3- 7 seats [median  5] (2)
QS      6- 8% [median  7.0] (0.5)  2- 2 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.5)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  1.0] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Even with a tie, the PQ has a much better chance of winning the most seats. Again, this is due to the Liberals piling up useless majorities in Anglo Montreal ridings. However, there are a lot of close races elsewhere, and as the seat ranges demonstrate, almost anything can happen. Also, there is a riding where the independent candidate, an incumbent who left the PLQ, who may be a factor in her seat. That said, currently I believe she is not personally popular enough to hang on over the party-backed candidates.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects a razor thin PQ MAJORITY of 1.