The aftermath: utterly defeated

The election is over, with all ridings declared. Now is a time to take a look at how the projection ranges matched up to actual results:
PQ     25-30% [actual 25.4] (-1.6) 32-50 seats [actual 30] (-10)
PLQ    37-42% [actual 41.5] (+1.5) 60-78 seats [actual 70] ( = )
CAQ    21-25% [actual 23.1] (+0.6)  8-18 seats [actual 22] (+ 9)
QS      7-10% [actual  7.6] (-0.4)  2- 3 seats [actual  3] (+ 1)
ON      0- 1% [actual  0.7] (-0.1)  0- 0 seats [actual  0] ( = )
PVQ     0- 1% [actual  0.6] (+0.1)  0- 0 seats [actual  0] ( = )
Other   0- 2% [actual  1.1] (+0.2)  0- 1 seats [actual  0] ( = )
Black is for within range, red for out of range, differences calculated from median.

As you can see, the polls (and hence, the vote share projection) did extremely well, with everything falling inside the margins. The Liberal majority was also very accurately predicted, with exactly 70 seats. The third QS seat was also within range.

Clearly, however, errors were made with the PQ and CAQ seat projection. Last week I said, "As for the CAQ, incumbency could really be a huge factor for them, especially now that they're on a clear upswing. It's highly likely that the CAQ will save more of their seats than most people expect." It was with this reasoning that I had the CAQ at 13 seats, or between 8 and 18, even as other predictions had them at a maximum of 11. It turns out even that was not enough.

Not only did they save their seats, they actually increased their seat count over last election, even while losing several seats to the Liberals. The size of the PQ collapse allowed Legault to pick up more than enough seats to make up the difference. This is because, even though the CAQ actually dropped 4 points of the popular vote from 2012, the PQ lost nearly 7 points, even worse than expected.

Perhaps, however, the greatest indicator of the magnitude of the PQ defeat was Pauline Marois' loss in her own seat by nearly 800 votes. Her resignation was swift, but notably, Pierre Karl Peladeau was first to make a speech broadcast on television and offer congratulations to Couillard. Words of congratulations to another party leader are normally only spoken by a party leader. Was Couillard signalling his intentions to replace Marois?

There are painful days of soul-searching ahead for the PQ, with a potentially divisive leadership campaign between the traditional unionist wing and the possible "PKP wing" of the party. In this light, I would not be surprised if Legault and the CAQ takes the de facto role of Official Opposition, both in legislature and the eyes of Quebecers, in the following months.

Sovereignty is down, and Canada can breathe a sign of relief. Now the question is, is it out?

Liberal momentum builds ahead of debate

Two new polls (CROP & Ipsos) agree: Most Quebecers do not want another sovereignty referendum, but believe the PQ would hold one if they win a majority, therefore, they are moving to the Liberals. Couillard has, so far, successfully managed to frame the PQ as focused on another referendum. He has picked up support from the nervous voters previously in the CAQ camp, because they see the Liberals as the best shot at stopping the PQ. Of course, PQ candidates attacking kosher or halal foods and comparing circumcision and baptism to rape didn't really help Marois.

To that end, the recruitment of PKP as a candidate has come back to bite Marois in the rear. The move was hailed as a game changer; and it may yet be, just not in the way Marois envisioned. She's trying to reframe her party's message around the controversial secular charter. That was evident when she sent minister Drainville out to talk exclusively about it. That will, no doubt, be part of her game plan in tomorrow's debate, on top of attacking the PLQ as the party of backroom deals and stuffed envelopes (a la Charest). Although, since this is the Couillard era, and not Charest, one wonders how effective that line of attack will be.

Look also for Francois Legault to attack Couillard more than Marois. He pretty much knows he's in no position to form government, and will now be simply trying to re-attract support. Given that a lot of that is moving to the Liberals, Legault will be swinging hard at Couillard.

This election looks increasingly likely to be determined by who sets the agenda, and not by the actual policy. If Couillard can keep the focus on the PQ's separatist roots, he will have the upper hand. The same can be said for Marois if she manages to redirect the message to secularism. Should Legault manage to worm himself in and talk about the economy, he may be able to prevent anybody from winning a majority and salvage a few seats.

For now, though:
PQ     33-38% [median 35.7] (1.7) 49-66 seats [median 58] (5)
PLQ    37-42% [median 39.3] (1.9) 52-70 seats [median 61] (5)
CAQ    12-15% [median 13.5] (0.8)  2- 5 seats [median  4] (=)
QS      7-10% [median  8.7] (0.7)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  0.8] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Politically Uncorrect now projects a LIBERAL MINORITY (short 2).

Was PKP a bit of an own goal by the PQ?

Bob Rae had the line of the day Friday when he said that a Quebec civil servant or a trade unionist voting for Pierre-Karl Peladeau (nicknamed PKP) would be "like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders." Witty soundbite regardless, he has a point. The PQ has sold itself out by courting a corporate media czar in an attempt to shore up their own economic credentials.

A star candidate and a former president and CEO such as Peladeau will not be content to sit as a mere backbencher. If the PQ is re-elected, he will almost certainly feature in the cabinet. But, attempting to forge a cabinet out of social democrats and economic conservatives is like adding oil to water. The two will not mix well.

So what is Pauline Marois counting on, then? What would be the proverbial glue on which she is depending to hold a team together? As expounded on in the last post, traditional left-right politics plays second fiddle to sovereigntist-federalist politics in Quebec. Marois is likely hoping that the common goal of an independent Quebec will be enough to keep her future cabinet on the straight and narrow.

That much was evident when, during Peladeau's announcement on Monday, he proudly declared, "I am a sovereigntist!" This was followed by Marois' very public musings on the workings of an independent Quebec. However, Thursday morning came along, and with polls showing sovereignty working against the PQ, Marois and Peladeau quickly changed their tune.

During Thursday's press conference, Peladeau refused to answer any questions about sovereignty, and at one point even appeared frustrated and tried to redirect the questions toward the economy. Marois abruptly stopped mentioning Quebec as a nation. Such is the power of public opinion.

However, if sovereignty as a focusing point is wrenched away from the PQ, we return to the original question: what, exactly, does the PQ now stand for? With the entry of Peladeau, the waters are muddied. The whole point of bringing him on board was to show that the PQ isn't only a party of trade unionists and social democrats.

But is that really such a good idea, or has Marois only found a wedge to drive within her own party? If she wins this election, will she have only given herself future headaches trying to head a fractious cabinet? And if she fails, or even wins just a minority, will inviting PKP only have served to open the door to a leadership challenge, painful both personally and to the party?

Clearly, Bob Rae hit a sensitive spot Friday morning. Otherwise, Marois would not have taken exception to his quip, and told him to "mind [his] own business."