It's a tie! Or is it?

End of week update. I'd like to hold to a Friday and Monday posting schedule this election cycle, unless a huge slew/barrage of polls show up.

Anyway, a Forum poll came out yesterday and moved the projection a little. The regional breakdowns are a little odd, but not totally out of line. Good poll for the PLQ.

The new numbers (changes in brackets, red means loss):
PQ     35-41% [median 38.1] (0.3) 56-75 seats [median 63] (2)
PLQ    35-41% [median 38.1] (2.4) 43-62 seats [median 55] (4)
CAQ    12-16% [median 13.9] (1.6)  3- 7 seats [median  5] (2)
QS      6- 8% [median  7.0] (0.5)  2- 2 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.0] (0.5)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  1.0] ( = )  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] ( = )  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Even with a tie, the PQ has a much better chance of winning the most seats. Again, this is due to the Liberals piling up useless majorities in Anglo Montreal ridings. However, there are a lot of close races elsewhere, and as the seat ranges demonstrate, almost anything can happen. Also, there is a riding where the independent candidate, an incumbent who left the PLQ, who may be a factor in her seat. That said, currently I believe she is not personally popular enough to hang on over the party-backed candidates.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects a razor thin PQ MAJORITY of 1.

Ready, set, go! Quebec votes on April 7

Eighteen months into her minority mandate, Pauline Marois (PQ) has pulled the plug on her own government in an attempt to secure a majority, on the back of her "secular charter" bill. While English Canada spurned this controversial (some have called it xenophobic) piece of legislation, it became increasingly popular among francophones, which, unsurprisingly, are the key demographic of Quebec elections.

A review of the parties:
PQ - Sovereigntist, centre-left party (Pauline Marois)
PLQ - Federalist, centrist party (Philippe Couillard)
CAQ - Nationalist, centre-right party (Francois Legault)
QS - Sovereigntist, far left party (Francoise David & Andres Fontecilla)
ON - Splinter party from the PQ (Sol Zanetti)
PVQ - Green  (Alex Tyrrell)

The first numbers from the weighted rolling poll average:
PQ     35-40%  [median 37.8]  56-78 seats  [median 65]
PLQ    33-38%  [median 35.7]  38-60 seats  [median 51]
CAQ    14-17%  [median 15.5]   5- 9 seats  [median  7]
QS      7- 9%  [median  7.5]   2- 2 seats  [median  2]
ON      0- 2%  [median  1.5]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
PVQ     0- 2%  [median  1.0]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other   0- 2%  [median  0.9]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]

The PQ has a slight electoral advantage due to the francophone vote, as mentioned above. On the other hand, the Liberals pile up massive (and useless) majorities in the anglophone Montreal constituencies.

With this reasoning, Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MAJORITY of 5.

First Quebec projection: PQ leads by 3.5

The Quebec election was actually called some 2 weeks ago, but a dearth of polling has left the projection somewhat delayed. I must clarify that while my spreadsheet objectively projects the vote, I subjectively predict the seats (and adjust the vote % according to likelihood to vote etc.).

A little brief about Quebec politics:

The Liberals (PLQ) are the long-standing federalist option. They're fairly centrist most of the time, and have been the dominant party recently, winning every election but one since the 1995 referendum. They are led by Jean Charest, has been described as having 9 lives. Charest has been premier for 9 years and is certainly the veteran, having survived the ADQ surge of 2007 (which resulted in a minority house with an ADQ opposition).

The Parti Québécois (PQ) are their main separatist competition. They've fought every election since 1970 and have been either government or official opposition in all but two (1970 and 2007). They are led by Pauline Marois. Supporters have nicknamed her la dame de béton (The Concrete Lady) after she survived a party revolt last year.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is a new conservative movement founded by former PQ minister François Legault, who has apparently renounced separation (at least for 10 years). They sit at a strong third, replacing the ADQ late last year. There is historical precedent for a surge in centre-right support (most notably by their predecessors in 2007), and Legault does hold the highest approval rating of all 3 leaders, so this could become interesting.

The Québec Solidaire (QS) is a left or even far-left separatist party "represented" (they don't have leaders) by Amir Khadir and Françoise David. They currently have 1 seat in the National Assembly, and are in the hunt for a second. Their stance on the political spectrum means that they compete for support with the PQ, which limits their competitiveness given their relative lack of establishment.

There are also the Green Party (PVQ) and Option Nationale (ON). Even though ON has one MNA (a defector from the PQ), both parties are not expected to challenge for seats.

And now, the first set of numbers:

Party   Low  Votes(%)  High    Low  Seats  High
PLQ     30     32.2     35     29     43     55
PQ      33     35.7     38     46     63     76
CAQ     21     24.1     27     12     18     31
QS       4      5.5      7      1      1      2
PVQ      1      1.5      2
ON       0      0.5      1
Other    0      0.6      1

The PQ actually manages to squeeze a majority (albeit of only 1 seat) out of this because they have a much more efficient vote distribution. The Liberals pile up massive majorities in the anglophone vote and they usually don't matter very much except on the West Island. So there you have it.