Liberal momentum builds ahead of debate

Two new polls (CROP & Ipsos) agree: Most Quebecers do not want another sovereignty referendum, but believe the PQ would hold one if they win a majority, therefore, they are moving to the Liberals. Couillard has, so far, successfully managed to frame the PQ as focused on another referendum. He has picked up support from the nervous voters previously in the CAQ camp, because they see the Liberals as the best shot at stopping the PQ. Of course, PQ candidates attacking kosher or halal foods and comparing circumcision and baptism to rape didn't really help Marois.

To that end, the recruitment of PKP as a candidate has come back to bite Marois in the rear. The move was hailed as a game changer; and it may yet be, just not in the way Marois envisioned. She's trying to reframe her party's message around the controversial secular charter. That was evident when she sent minister Drainville out to talk exclusively about it. That will, no doubt, be part of her game plan in tomorrow's debate, on top of attacking the PLQ as the party of backroom deals and stuffed envelopes (a la Charest). Although, since this is the Couillard era, and not Charest, one wonders how effective that line of attack will be.

Look also for Francois Legault to attack Couillard more than Marois. He pretty much knows he's in no position to form government, and will now be simply trying to re-attract support. Given that a lot of that is moving to the Liberals, Legault will be swinging hard at Couillard.

This election looks increasingly likely to be determined by who sets the agenda, and not by the actual policy. If Couillard can keep the focus on the PQ's separatist roots, he will have the upper hand. The same can be said for Marois if she manages to redirect the message to secularism. Should Legault manage to worm himself in and talk about the economy, he may be able to prevent anybody from winning a majority and salvage a few seats.

For now, though:
PQ     33-38% [median 35.7] (1.7) 49-66 seats [median 58] (5)
PLQ    37-42% [median 39.3] (1.9) 52-70 seats [median 61] (5)
CAQ    12-15% [median 13.5] (0.8)  2- 5 seats [median  4] (=)
QS      7-10% [median  8.7] (0.7)  2- 3 seats [median  2] (=)
ON      0- 2% [median  1.1] (0.2)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
PVQ     0- 2% [median  0.8] (0.1)  0- 0 seats [median  0] (=)
Other   0- 2% [median  0.9] (0.1)  0- 1 seats [median  0] (=)

Politically Uncorrect now projects a LIBERAL MINORITY (short 2).