Eighteen months into her minority mandate, Pauline Marois (PQ) has pulled the plug on her own government in an attempt to secure a majority, on the back of her "secular charter" bill. While English Canada spurned this controversial (some have called it xenophobic) piece of legislation, it became increasingly popular among francophones, which, unsurprisingly, are the key demographic of Quebec elections.
A review of the parties:
PQ - Sovereigntist, centre-left party (Pauline Marois)
PLQ - Federalist, centrist party (Philippe Couillard)
CAQ - Nationalist, centre-right party (Francois Legault)
QS - Sovereigntist, far left party (Francoise David & Andres Fontecilla)
ON - Splinter party from the PQ (Sol Zanetti)
PVQ - Green (Alex Tyrrell)
The first numbers from the weighted rolling poll average:
PQ 35-40% [median 37.8] 56-78 seats [median 65]
PLQ 33-38% [median 35.7] 38-60 seats [median 51]
CAQ 14-17% [median 15.5] 5- 9 seats [median 7]
QS 7- 9% [median 7.5] 2- 2 seats [median 2]
ON 0- 2% [median 1.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
PVQ 0- 2% [median 1.0] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
The PQ has a slight electoral advantage due to the francophone vote, as mentioned above. On the other hand, the Liberals pile up massive (and useless) majorities in the anglophone Montreal constituencies.
With this reasoning, Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MAJORITY of 5.
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