Ontario votes, or Why Campaigns Matter

Ontario votes tomorrow. Three months ago, the PCs were sitting pretty, and were, as the media put it, coasting to a victory. Then we had the campaign. During the campaign, PC leader Mr. Hudak was very un-Premier-like. Meanwhile, Premier McGuinty (Liberal) behaved very much like a Premier. This resulted in a gradual shift of momentum towards the Liberals mid-campaign. Polling became very volatile but averaged onto a small Liberal lead, which, due to efficiency in voting (much like the Manitoba NDP yesterday), could win them a third straight majority. Talk about a change in fortunes.

That said, there exists a strong third party in Ontario (something Manitoba lacks). Andrea Horwath's NDP has steadily gained support throughout the campaign. Much of whether Mr. McGuinty gets a majority or not depends on how many votes go to the NDP. Given a shot at a Liberal majority, they may well be able to convince some NDP voters to vote Liberal.

The other factor to whether McGuinty gets another majority is how energized the Liberal and PC votes are. If the PCs get out their vote, they may yet deny McGuinty a majority. Conversely, should the Liberals get out their vote, they will most likely have a majority at the end of the day.

The polling ranges (and accompanying seat ranges if relevant) are like this:
Lib ........ 33-40% ... 47-65 seats
PC ........ 29-36% ... 23-37 seats
NDP ...... 23-29% ... 17-24 seats
Green ....... 2-6%
Other ........ 0-2%

Obviously this is a little ridiculously wide, so I've narrowed that down to more reasonable ranges:
Lib ........ 36-38% ... 53-60 seats (median 37.0%, 57 seats)
PC ........ 32-35% ... 27-34 seats (median 33.3%, 30 seats)
NDP ...... 23-26% ... 17-22 seats (median 24.3%, 20 seats)
Green ....... 3-5% (median 4.4%)
Other ........ 0-2% (median 1.0%)

EKOS decided to toss us a curve ball and release their final numbers late at night. It moves one seat from the PCs to the Liberals. Now the Liberals are expected end up at least one short of a majority, and makes the election somewhat easier to call. That said, election night could still hold surprises and my projection will only be as good as the polls.

Since there is a slightly much better chance of a majority than a minority (even though this is on very thin ice), Politically Uncorrect will go out on a limb and project a LIBERAL MAJORITY. Tomorrow evening will be interesting. There's only one thing I can say: Ontario, democracy is not a spectator sport. Participate. Vote.