"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." ~ Jack Layton, Leader of the NDP and Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, August 20, 2011
Yesterday was a sad day for us all, as we learned of the passing of Jack Layton. These last words from his letter to Canadians two days before his passing are words we can all agree with. What he loves, what he hopes for, what he is optimistic for may not be what all of us love, hope for, and are optimistic for; but his last words encompass the person he truly was. He stood for all that, and more. He was genuine and sincere, in the face of politics, and to the very end, he worked for Canada, and that is to be respected.
While I may not agree with his party, his opinions, and his policies, I will still miss 'Smiling Jack,' as he was known, for what he brought to Canadian politics. I will mourn his loss as a fellow Canadian and human being. Ever since I began to follow politics, Jack Layton has been there. Sometimes he brought real ideas, but sometimes they were (no offense) a joke. He made us think and he made us laugh -- and usually when that happened he laughed with us.
With a Conservative majority, an NDP opposition, the Liberals battered, the Bloc crushed, and the Greens represented, the last election already represented a sea-change from the Canadian politics that I knew. Harper and Layton remained the only constants. Now even Layton isn't around anymore...Canadian politics is about to take on a whole new look. Jack would have wanted us to look forward, so now we ask, "What's next?"
Prime Minister Harper's offer of a state funeral, although out of the ordinary, is nothing more than what Mr. Layton deserves. May he rest in peace.
Showing posts with label Bloc Quebecois. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bloc Quebecois. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
41st Canadian federal election - post mortem
As results trickled in last night, boy was everyone shocked. First of all, while squeaking out a majority was considered a possibility, nobody expected 167 seats. Toronto, thank you. Next, while the NDP surge was quite properly predicted, it was still a meteoric rise and a historic moment. Third, the Liberal decimation was even worse than what most expected - even Ignatieff lost his seat. Fourth, nobody thought the Bloc would be so inefficient in its vote distribution - 23% of the vote and only 4 seats, Duceppe not included. Fifth and finally, Elizabeth May finally won her seat. There was actually a riding poll showing her in the lead, but it was commissioned by the Greens and I was skeptical.
The polls...to put it bluntly, failed miserably. Especially on the Conservative share. They were good for Quebec, but wildly off (underestimating the Tories) in every other region. While I corrected for some of that by giving the Tories an extra percent of the vote, while penalizing the NDP by two, it was still not enough. At 152 seats in the projection, I was actually among the least bad. I had a total error of 38 seats, compared with the 40's and even 50's for many. This sort of sea-change election validates my experiment with projecting ranges. Even with ranges, however, the Bloc fell outside of the range in terms of seats and the Conservatives broke the ceiling of their vote share range.
This calls for the question - was it the projection model's fault? Plugging in the ACTUAL results into the model, I get precisely 167 Conservatives. However, I would have underestimated the Liberals, giving them 26 seats. The NDP would have received 104 seats, and the Bloc 11. I would have been right about no independent, but still wrong about Elizabeth May. That's a total error of 18 - much improved over the polling numbers, meaning that it was mostly the pollsters' fault.
All in all, this was a failed call because I missed the most important detail - majority or minority. Oh well...at least I got the order of the parties right.
The polls...to put it bluntly, failed miserably. Especially on the Conservative share. They were good for Quebec, but wildly off (underestimating the Tories) in every other region. While I corrected for some of that by giving the Tories an extra percent of the vote, while penalizing the NDP by two, it was still not enough. At 152 seats in the projection, I was actually among the least bad. I had a total error of 38 seats, compared with the 40's and even 50's for many. This sort of sea-change election validates my experiment with projecting ranges. Even with ranges, however, the Bloc fell outside of the range in terms of seats and the Conservatives broke the ceiling of their vote share range.
This calls for the question - was it the projection model's fault? Plugging in the ACTUAL results into the model, I get precisely 167 Conservatives. However, I would have underestimated the Liberals, giving them 26 seats. The NDP would have received 104 seats, and the Bloc 11. I would have been right about no independent, but still wrong about Elizabeth May. That's a total error of 18 - much improved over the polling numbers, meaning that it was mostly the pollsters' fault.
All in all, this was a failed call because I missed the most important detail - majority or minority. Oh well...at least I got the order of the parties right.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
FINAL ELECTION PROJECTIONS
Well...this is it. Tomorrow is Election Day, so it's time for my FINAL PROJECTION.
This election, due to the sudden rise of the NDP, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the projections, therefore I have a new approach, and that is to give best/worst case scenarios for each party, before giving an average projection.
All numbers will be given in this order - BC, Alberta, Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic, Total.
Conservative best case:
22, 28, 24, 71, 8, 16 = 169 - L 28, N 97, B 13, O 1. Conservative MAJORITY 30
Conservative worst case:
19, 26, 20, 44, 3, 12 = 124 - L 57, N 111, B 16. Conservative SHORT 31
Liberal best case:
8, 0, 2, 38, 10, 15 = 73 - C 130, N 93, B 11, O 1. THIRD; Conservative SHORT 25
Liberal worst case:
0, 0, 0, 7, 1, 6 = 14 - C 162, N 121, B 10. THIRD; Conservative MAJORITY 16
NDP best case:
18, 1, 6, 27, 55, 13 = 120 - C 155, L 20, B 13. OPPOSITION; Conservative MAJORITY 2
NDP worst case:
11, 0, 5, 22, 44, 4 = 86 - C 158, L 43, B 20, O 1. OPPOSITION; Conservative MAJORITY 8
[Quebec/Canada]
Bloc best case: 21 - C 3/150, L 4/40, N 47/97. FOURTH; Conservative SHORT 5
Bloc worst case: 10 - C 6/153, L 1/37, N 58/108. FOURTH; Conservative SHORT 2
AVERAGE:
Conservative - 35-39% - 21, 27, 22, 63, 5, 14 = 152
Liberal - 19-21% - 3, 0, 2, 21, 5, 10 = 41
NDP - 27-33% - 15, 1, 4, 22, 49, 8 = 99
Bloc - 24-28% [Quebec]/6-7% [Canada] - 15
Green - 4-6%
Other - 1% - 1 [Quebec]
Conservative SHORT 3
Possible outcomes:
Conservative majority - Due to massive vote splitting in Ontario, this is still possible, as long as things go slightly more favourable than polls suggest - 3.0
Conservative plurality, Harper - If Harper wins more seats than last time (145+ seats) then the Liberals might choose to prop him up instead - 4.0
Conservative plurality, Layton - If the Conservatives lose seats and the NDP+Liberal total ends up near or over 155, Layton will become Prime Minister - 3.0
Analysis:
The Conservatives are closer to their upper end because they've traditionally been good at getting out the vote.
The Liberals are in the middle of their range, as they usually are, but even their upper limit is a historic worst.
The NDP is slightly at the lower end [of a very wide range, high uncertainty due to their shocking rise] due to the fact that they are less organized on the ground; still they will become the official opposition.
The Bloc is in the middle of their range, since their usual ballot-box penalty should be canceled out by incumbents hanging on by name recognition.
I have Andre Arthur [independent] keeping his seat in Quebec but there are differing opinions out there.
The Greens are not expected to win May's riding, due to much lower exposure this campaign.
This election, due to the sudden rise of the NDP, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the projections, therefore I have a new approach, and that is to give best/worst case scenarios for each party, before giving an average projection.
All numbers will be given in this order - BC, Alberta, Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic, Total.
Conservative best case:
22, 28, 24, 71, 8, 16 = 169 - L 28, N 97, B 13, O 1. Conservative MAJORITY 30
Conservative worst case:
19, 26, 20, 44, 3, 12 = 124 - L 57, N 111, B 16. Conservative SHORT 31
Liberal best case:
8, 0, 2, 38, 10, 15 = 73 - C 130, N 93, B 11, O 1. THIRD; Conservative SHORT 25
Liberal worst case:
0, 0, 0, 7, 1, 6 = 14 - C 162, N 121, B 10. THIRD; Conservative MAJORITY 16
NDP best case:
18, 1, 6, 27, 55, 13 = 120 - C 155, L 20, B 13. OPPOSITION; Conservative MAJORITY 2
NDP worst case:
11, 0, 5, 22, 44, 4 = 86 - C 158, L 43, B 20, O 1. OPPOSITION; Conservative MAJORITY 8
[Quebec/Canada]
Bloc best case: 21 - C 3/150, L 4/40, N 47/97. FOURTH; Conservative SHORT 5
Bloc worst case: 10 - C 6/153, L 1/37, N 58/108. FOURTH; Conservative SHORT 2
AVERAGE:
Conservative - 35-39% - 21, 27, 22, 63, 5, 14 = 152
Liberal - 19-21% - 3, 0, 2, 21, 5, 10 = 41
NDP - 27-33% - 15, 1, 4, 22, 49, 8 = 99
Bloc - 24-28% [Quebec]/6-7% [Canada] - 15
Green - 4-6%
Other - 1% - 1 [Quebec]
Conservative SHORT 3
Possible outcomes:
Conservative majority - Due to massive vote splitting in Ontario, this is still possible, as long as things go slightly more favourable than polls suggest - 3.0
Conservative plurality, Harper - If Harper wins more seats than last time (145+ seats) then the Liberals might choose to prop him up instead - 4.0
Conservative plurality, Layton - If the Conservatives lose seats and the NDP+Liberal total ends up near or over 155, Layton will become Prime Minister - 3.0
Analysis:
The Conservatives are closer to their upper end because they've traditionally been good at getting out the vote.
The Liberals are in the middle of their range, as they usually are, but even their upper limit is a historic worst.
The NDP is slightly at the lower end [of a very wide range, high uncertainty due to their shocking rise] due to the fact that they are less organized on the ground; still they will become the official opposition.
The Bloc is in the middle of their range, since their usual ballot-box penalty should be canceled out by incumbents hanging on by name recognition.
I have Andre Arthur [independent] keeping his seat in Quebec but there are differing opinions out there.
The Greens are not expected to win May's riding, due to much lower exposure this campaign.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Conservative lead 9.5 over NDP, NDP crushes Bloc
Now, you might be thinking, a lead that goes from 14 down to 9 will drop the Conservatives out of majority, right? Well, actually, this decrease in the lead can be explained by several regional variations.
The Conservatives drop a few in Quebec, while the NDP pick up more than a few. This hardly affects the Conservative seat count.
The Conservatives drop a few in the Atlantic. Earlier higher polls could have been just statistical noise, but the effect was still no more than a couple of seats.
The Conservatives held steady in Ontario while the NDP moved up. Since this movement was at the expense of the Liberals, the Conservatives reap the rewards in Ontario.
Loss of a few, gain of a few, and the end result is that the Conservatives are still over the majority marker. Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to lose seats and votes in Ontario, and the NDP finally hits the sweet spot in Quebec - the pay zone where each percent increase in their lead over the Bloc gets a few seats.
Party goals:
The Conservatives - Ontario is key. Keeping most of the seats outside Ontario while continuing to ride high in Ontario will give them the majority they want.
The NDP - Quebec and BC are key. Quebec is key to a rich seat reward. BC could still stop a Harper majority if Ontario backs off Harper a bit.
The Liberals - Ontario is key. This is where they will fight for their Official Opposition status, and to avoid a historic defeat.
The Bloc - Beat back the NDP. Sounds simple, but the Orange Tsunami is just that...a tsunami. It will be hard even to stop.
Seat projections:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 36.99 --- 156 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 63 ---- 7 -- 16
Liberal ---------- 22.26 ---- 49 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 23 ---- 9 --- 9
NDP ------------ 27.45 ---- 82 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 20 --- 38 -- 7
Bloc ------------- 6.54 ----- 20 --------------------------------------- 20 ----
Green ----------- 5.37 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.40 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----
The Conservatives drop a few in Quebec, while the NDP pick up more than a few. This hardly affects the Conservative seat count.
The Conservatives drop a few in the Atlantic. Earlier higher polls could have been just statistical noise, but the effect was still no more than a couple of seats.
The Conservatives held steady in Ontario while the NDP moved up. Since this movement was at the expense of the Liberals, the Conservatives reap the rewards in Ontario.
Loss of a few, gain of a few, and the end result is that the Conservatives are still over the majority marker. Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to lose seats and votes in Ontario, and the NDP finally hits the sweet spot in Quebec - the pay zone where each percent increase in their lead over the Bloc gets a few seats.
Party goals:
The Conservatives - Ontario is key. Keeping most of the seats outside Ontario while continuing to ride high in Ontario will give them the majority they want.
The NDP - Quebec and BC are key. Quebec is key to a rich seat reward. BC could still stop a Harper majority if Ontario backs off Harper a bit.
The Liberals - Ontario is key. This is where they will fight for their Official Opposition status, and to avoid a historic defeat.
The Bloc - Beat back the NDP. Sounds simple, but the Orange Tsunami is just that...a tsunami. It will be hard even to stop.
Seat projections:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 36.99 --- 156 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 63 ---- 7 -- 16
Liberal ---------- 22.26 ---- 49 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 23 ---- 9 --- 9
NDP ------------ 27.45 ---- 82 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 20 --- 38 -- 7
Bloc ------------- 6.54 ----- 20 --------------------------------------- 20 ----
Green ----------- 5.37 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.40 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----
Monday, April 25, 2011
Conservative lead 14.3 over NDP
This update sort of jumped in out of place, but I suppose as the campaign winds down I'll keep a closer eye on the numbers.
Getting to the numbers, nothing really eye-popping today, just the lone Nanos daily tracker, but the movement in a few regions are driving changes today, so without further ado, today's ACTUAL headline...
ONTARIO AND ATLANTIC PROVINCES PROPEL CONSERVATIVES INTO MAJORITY TERRITORY; QUEBEC HANDS NDP OFFICIAL OPPOSITION STATUS
Yes, with today's Nanos poll giving the Conservatives a very large lead in both Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, the polling average shifts them past the magic 155-seat mark. This is, of course, at the expense of the Liberals, and coupled with further NDP gains in Quebec, the Liberals are now sitting in third place in SEATS as well as votes. However, the margin is still extremely small between the Liberals and NDP and just a few hundred votes could decide who's the official opposition come May 3rd. Same caveat could be applied to the Conservative majority. A few hundred votes could make it or break it for them.
And now, the numbers:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 38.20 --- 156 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 60 ---- 9 -- 17
Liberal ---------- 23.71 ---- 55 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 28 ---- 9 -- 10
NDP ------------ 23.93 ---- 59 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 18 --- 19 -- 5
Bloc ------------- 6.73 ----- 37 --------------------------------------- 37 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----
And since the driving force of movement is the Nanos poll, I will give also a detailed table for a one-poll projection:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative -- 39.2 --- 165 ----- 20 ---- 27 ---- 22 ---- 70 ---- 5 -- 21
Liberal ----------- 25.6 ---- 52 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 2 ----- 21 --- 14 -- 7
NDP ------------- 23.6 ---- 58 ----- 11 ------ 1 ----- 4 ----- 15 --- 23 -- 4
Bloc -------------- 6.5 ----- 32 ---------------------------------------- 32 ----
Green ------------ 3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------
Other ------------ 1.5 ------- 1 ----------------------------------------- 1 -----
Getting to the numbers, nothing really eye-popping today, just the lone Nanos daily tracker, but the movement in a few regions are driving changes today, so without further ado, today's ACTUAL headline...
ONTARIO AND ATLANTIC PROVINCES PROPEL CONSERVATIVES INTO MAJORITY TERRITORY; QUEBEC HANDS NDP OFFICIAL OPPOSITION STATUS
Yes, with today's Nanos poll giving the Conservatives a very large lead in both Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, the polling average shifts them past the magic 155-seat mark. This is, of course, at the expense of the Liberals, and coupled with further NDP gains in Quebec, the Liberals are now sitting in third place in SEATS as well as votes. However, the margin is still extremely small between the Liberals and NDP and just a few hundred votes could decide who's the official opposition come May 3rd. Same caveat could be applied to the Conservative majority. A few hundred votes could make it or break it for them.
And now, the numbers:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 38.20 --- 156 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 60 ---- 9 -- 17
Liberal ---------- 23.71 ---- 55 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 28 ---- 9 -- 10
NDP ------------ 23.93 ---- 59 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 18 --- 19 -- 5
Bloc ------------- 6.73 ----- 37 --------------------------------------- 37 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----
And since the driving force of movement is the Nanos poll, I will give also a detailed table for a one-poll projection:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative -- 39.2 --- 165 ----- 20 ---- 27 ---- 22 ---- 70 ---- 5 -- 21
Liberal ----------- 25.6 ---- 52 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 2 ----- 21 --- 14 -- 7
NDP ------------- 23.6 ---- 58 ----- 11 ------ 1 ----- 4 ----- 15 --- 23 -- 4
Bloc -------------- 6.5 ----- 32 ---------------------------------------- 32 ----
Green ------------ 3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------
Other ------------ 1.5 ------- 1 ----------------------------------------- 1 -----
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Conservative lead 14 over NDP [!!!], time running out for majority
I haven't had the time to do one of these projection updates since the start of the campaign, but here we go, with just over a week left. And what a week to do one, with what is beginning to look like the Orange Revolution!
The NDP has OVERTAKEN the Liberal party for second place, even if just barely, in the rolling poll average, and a few more of these polls and they will inch ahead of the Bloc in their home turf! Of course, a general rule in Canadian politics is that the most boring thing will end up happening...so...don't hold your breath yet.
Perhaps this is time to revisit my analysis of the probability of the following scenarios:
Harper majority - With a lack of movement in the polls as the campaign draws to a close, Harper's chance at a majority isn't moving in the right direction - 4.0 (-0.5)
Liberal government - A sharp decline since the debates is not helping the Liberals in their quest to return to power by themselves - 1.5 (-1.5)
NDP official opposition - A strong showing by Layton at the debate precluded skyrocketing poll numbers, especially in Quebec, and the payoff could be handsome - 4.0 (+2.5)
Harper's road Bloc - The NDP is on the verge of a large windfall in Quebec right now, and if the Bloc slips even a bit further they will no longer be in Harper's way - 3.5 (-3.0)
Elected in May - Excluded from the debates and absolutely ignored by the media, the Greens are spinning their wheels to no avail - 1.0 (-1.5)
And perhaps to add a couple previously fantastical situations:
Prime Minister Layton - Should the NDP continues to charge ahead, the leader of the coalition may well be Jack Layton, provided the Liberals and Bloc can stomach it - 1.5 (+1.5)
Liberals in fourth - If the Bloc stops the leakage but Ontario jumps on the NDP bandwagon, the Liberals may well find themselves even deeper into historical disaster - 0.5 (+0.5)
And so, vote and seat averages:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 37.91 --- 150 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 56 ---- 9 -- 15
Liberal ---------- 23.78 ---- 60 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 33 ---- 8 -- 11
NDP ------------ 23.95 ---- 55 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 17 --- 15 -- 6
Bloc ------------- 6.92 ----- 42 --------------------------------------- 42 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----
The NDP has OVERTAKEN the Liberal party for second place, even if just barely, in the rolling poll average, and a few more of these polls and they will inch ahead of the Bloc in their home turf! Of course, a general rule in Canadian politics is that the most boring thing will end up happening...so...don't hold your breath yet.
Perhaps this is time to revisit my analysis of the probability of the following scenarios:
Harper majority - With a lack of movement in the polls as the campaign draws to a close, Harper's chance at a majority isn't moving in the right direction - 4.0 (-0.5)
Liberal government - A sharp decline since the debates is not helping the Liberals in their quest to return to power by themselves - 1.5 (-1.5)
NDP official opposition - A strong showing by Layton at the debate precluded skyrocketing poll numbers, especially in Quebec, and the payoff could be handsome - 4.0 (+2.5)
Harper's road Bloc - The NDP is on the verge of a large windfall in Quebec right now, and if the Bloc slips even a bit further they will no longer be in Harper's way - 3.5 (-3.0)
Elected in May - Excluded from the debates and absolutely ignored by the media, the Greens are spinning their wheels to no avail - 1.0 (-1.5)
And perhaps to add a couple previously fantastical situations:
Prime Minister Layton - Should the NDP continues to charge ahead, the leader of the coalition may well be Jack Layton, provided the Liberals and Bloc can stomach it - 1.5 (+1.5)
Liberals in fourth - If the Bloc stops the leakage but Ontario jumps on the NDP bandwagon, the Liberals may well find themselves even deeper into historical disaster - 0.5 (+0.5)
And so, vote and seat averages:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 37.91 --- 150 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 56 ---- 9 -- 15
Liberal ---------- 23.78 ---- 60 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 33 ---- 8 -- 11
NDP ------------ 23.95 ---- 55 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 17 --- 15 -- 6
Bloc ------------- 6.92 ----- 42 --------------------------------------- 42 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Conservative lead 12.3, closing in on majority
Today, Stephen Harper advised the Governor General to dissolve parliament, setting off a federal election. After 36 days of campaigning, voters will go to the polls on May 2, 2011. With that, the inaugural federal election projection is under way.
After 8 years of existence and 5 years in minority government, will Stephen Harper finally be able to win a majority government?
Losing power in 2006 amidst the firestorm that Adscam was, can Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals finally convince Canadians to trust them again?
Can Jack Layton and the NDP build on the success that the had in 2008, and finally overtake the Liberals as the go-to party of the left?
With the Bloc Quebecois's stranglehold on la belle province, will their permanent grasp of a sixth of parliament's seats again contain Harper to a minority?
Having come second so many times, can Elizabeth May finally win her Green Party its historic first seat in the House of Commons?
With 0 being extremely unlikely to 10 being near certain, the first projection of the 41st Canadian federal election gives the following answers:
Harper majority: 4.5
Liberal government: 3.0
NDP official opposition: 1.5
Harper's road Bloc: 6.5
Elected in May: 2.5
And finally, the long-awaited weighted rolling average and seat projections:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 37.84 --- 153 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 23 ---- 57 --- 10 -- 15
Liberal ---------- 25.57 ---- 69 ------ 7 ----- 0 ----- 3 ----- 34 --- 12 -- 13
NDP ------------ 17.22 ---- 35 ----- 11 ----- 1 ----- 2 ----- 15 ---- 2 ---- 4
Bloc ------------- 9.69 ------50 --------------------------------------- 50 -----
Green ----------- 7.99 -----------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.68 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 ------
After 8 years of existence and 5 years in minority government, will Stephen Harper finally be able to win a majority government?
Losing power in 2006 amidst the firestorm that Adscam was, can Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals finally convince Canadians to trust them again?
Can Jack Layton and the NDP build on the success that the had in 2008, and finally overtake the Liberals as the go-to party of the left?
With the Bloc Quebecois's stranglehold on la belle province, will their permanent grasp of a sixth of parliament's seats again contain Harper to a minority?
Having come second so many times, can Elizabeth May finally win her Green Party its historic first seat in the House of Commons?
With 0 being extremely unlikely to 10 being near certain, the first projection of the 41st Canadian federal election gives the following answers:
Harper majority: 4.5
Liberal government: 3.0
NDP official opposition: 1.5
Harper's road Bloc: 6.5
Elected in May: 2.5
And finally, the long-awaited weighted rolling average and seat projections:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 37.84 --- 153 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 23 ---- 57 --- 10 -- 15
Liberal ---------- 25.57 ---- 69 ------ 7 ----- 0 ----- 3 ----- 34 --- 12 -- 13
NDP ------------ 17.22 ---- 35 ----- 11 ----- 1 ----- 2 ----- 15 ---- 2 ---- 4
Bloc ------------- 9.69 ------50 --------------------------------------- 50 -----
Green ----------- 7.99 -----------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.68 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 ------
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)