Conservative lead 9.5 over NDP, NDP crushes Bloc

Now, you might be thinking, a lead that goes from 14 down to 9 will drop the Conservatives out of majority, right? Well, actually, this decrease in the lead can be explained by several regional variations.

The Conservatives drop a few in Quebec, while the NDP pick up more than a few. This hardly affects the Conservative seat count.

The Conservatives drop a few in the Atlantic. Earlier higher polls could have been just statistical noise, but the effect was still no more than a couple of seats.

The Conservatives held steady in Ontario while the NDP moved up. Since this movement was at the expense of the Liberals, the Conservatives reap the rewards in Ontario.

Loss of a few, gain of a few, and the end result is that the Conservatives are still over the majority marker. Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to lose seats and votes in Ontario, and the NDP finally hits the sweet spot in Quebec - the pay zone where each percent increase in their lead over the Bloc gets a few seats.

Party goals:
The Conservatives - Ontario is key. Keeping most of the seats outside Ontario while continuing to ride high in Ontario will give them the majority they want.

The NDP - Quebec and BC are key. Quebec is key to a rich seat reward. BC could still stop a Harper majority if Ontario backs off Harper a bit.

The Liberals - Ontario is key. This is where they will fight for their Official Opposition status, and to avoid a historic defeat.

The Bloc - Beat back the NDP. Sounds simple, but the Orange Tsunami is just that...a tsunami. It will be hard even to stop.

Seat projections:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 36.99 --- 156 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 63 ---- 7 -- 16
Liberal ---------- 22.26 ---- 49 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 23 ---- 9 --- 9
NDP ------------ 27.45 ---- 82 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 20 --- 38 -- 7
Bloc ------------- 6.54 ----- 20 --------------------------------------- 20 ----
Green ----------- 5.37 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.40 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----