This update sort of jumped in out of place, but I suppose as the campaign winds down I'll keep a closer eye on the numbers.
Getting to the numbers, nothing really eye-popping today, just the lone Nanos daily tracker, but the movement in a few regions are driving changes today, so without further ado, today's ACTUAL headline...
ONTARIO AND ATLANTIC PROVINCES PROPEL CONSERVATIVES INTO MAJORITY TERRITORY; QUEBEC HANDS NDP OFFICIAL OPPOSITION STATUS
Yes, with today's Nanos poll giving the Conservatives a very large lead in both Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, the polling average shifts them past the magic 155-seat mark. This is, of course, at the expense of the Liberals, and coupled with further NDP gains in Quebec, the Liberals are now sitting in third place in SEATS as well as votes. However, the margin is still extremely small between the Liberals and NDP and just a few hundred votes could decide who's the official opposition come May 3rd. Same caveat could be applied to the Conservative majority. A few hundred votes could make it or break it for them.
And now, the numbers:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 38.20 --- 156 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 60 ---- 9 -- 17
Liberal ---------- 23.71 ---- 55 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 28 ---- 9 -- 10
NDP ------------ 23.93 ---- 59 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 18 --- 19 -- 5
Bloc ------------- 6.73 ----- 37 --------------------------------------- 37 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----
And since the driving force of movement is the Nanos poll, I will give also a detailed table for a one-poll projection:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative -- 39.2 --- 165 ----- 20 ---- 27 ---- 22 ---- 70 ---- 5 -- 21
Liberal ----------- 25.6 ---- 52 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 2 ----- 21 --- 14 -- 7
NDP ------------- 23.6 ---- 58 ----- 11 ------ 1 ----- 4 ----- 15 --- 23 -- 4
Bloc -------------- 6.5 ----- 32 ---------------------------------------- 32 ----
Green ------------ 3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------
Other ------------ 1.5 ------- 1 ----------------------------------------- 1 -----
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