Today, Stephen Harper advised the Governor General to dissolve parliament, setting off a federal election. After 36 days of campaigning, voters will go to the polls on May 2, 2011. With that, the inaugural federal election projection is under way.
After 8 years of existence and 5 years in minority government, will Stephen Harper finally be able to win a majority government?
Losing power in 2006 amidst the firestorm that Adscam was, can Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals finally convince Canadians to trust them again?
Can Jack Layton and the NDP build on the success that the had in 2008, and finally overtake the Liberals as the go-to party of the left?
With the Bloc Quebecois's stranglehold on la belle province, will their permanent grasp of a sixth of parliament's seats again contain Harper to a minority?
Having come second so many times, can Elizabeth May finally win her Green Party its historic first seat in the House of Commons?
With 0 being extremely unlikely to 10 being near certain, the first projection of the 41st Canadian federal election gives the following answers:
Harper majority: 4.5
Liberal government: 3.0
NDP official opposition: 1.5
Harper's road Bloc: 6.5
Elected in May: 2.5
And finally, the long-awaited weighted rolling average and seat projections:
Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 37.84 --- 153 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 23 ---- 57 --- 10 -- 15
Liberal ---------- 25.57 ---- 69 ------ 7 ----- 0 ----- 3 ----- 34 --- 12 -- 13
NDP ------------ 17.22 ---- 35 ----- 11 ----- 1 ----- 2 ----- 15 ---- 2 ---- 4
Bloc ------------- 9.69 ------50 --------------------------------------- 50 -----
Green ----------- 7.99 -----------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.68 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 ------
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