FINAL ELECTION PROJECTIONS

Well...this is it. Tomorrow is Election Day, so it's time for my FINAL PROJECTION.

This election, due to the sudden rise of the NDP, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the projections, therefore I have a new approach, and that is to give best/worst case scenarios for each party, before giving an average projection.

All numbers will be given in this order - BC, Alberta, Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic, Total.

Conservative best case:
22, 28, 24, 71, 8, 16 = 169 - L 28, N 97, B 13, O 1. Conservative MAJORITY 30
Conservative worst case:
19, 26, 20, 44, 3, 12 = 124 - L 57, N 111, B 16. Conservative SHORT 31

Liberal best case:
8, 0, 2, 38, 10, 15 = 73 - C 130, N 93, B 11, O 1. THIRD; Conservative SHORT 25
Liberal worst case:
0, 0, 0, 7, 1, 6 = 14 - C 162, N 121, B 10. THIRD; Conservative MAJORITY 16

NDP best case:
18, 1, 6, 27, 55, 13 = 120 - C 155, L 20, B 13. OPPOSITION; Conservative MAJORITY 2
NDP worst case:
11, 0, 5, 22, 44, 4 = 86 - C 158, L 43, B 20, O 1. OPPOSITION; Conservative MAJORITY 8

[Quebec/Canada]
Bloc best case: 21 - C 3/150, L 4/40, N 47/97. FOURTH; Conservative SHORT 5
Bloc worst case: 10 - C 6/153, L 1/37, N 58/108. FOURTH; Conservative SHORT 2

AVERAGE:
Conservative - 35-39% - 21, 27, 22, 63, 5, 14 = 152
Liberal - 19-21% - 3, 0, 2, 21, 5, 10 = 41
NDP - 27-33% - 15, 1, 4, 22, 49, 8 = 99
Bloc - 24-28% [Quebec]/6-7% [Canada] - 15
Green - 4-6%
Other - 1% - 1 [Quebec]
Conservative SHORT 3

Possible outcomes:
Conservative majority - Due to massive vote splitting in Ontario, this is still possible, as long as things go slightly more favourable than polls suggest - 3.0

Conservative plurality, Harper - If Harper wins more seats than last time (145+ seats) then the Liberals might choose to prop him up instead - 4.0

Conservative plurality, Layton - If the Conservatives lose seats and the NDP+Liberal total ends up near or over 155, Layton will become Prime Minister - 3.0

Analysis:
The Conservatives are closer to their upper end because they've traditionally been good at getting out the vote.

The Liberals are in the middle of their range, as they usually are, but even their upper limit is a historic worst.

The NDP is slightly at the lower end [of a very wide range, high uncertainty due to their shocking rise] due to the fact that they are less organized on the ground; still they will become the official opposition.

The Bloc is in the middle of their range, since their usual ballot-box penalty should be canceled out by incumbents hanging on by name recognition.

I have Andre Arthur [independent] keeping his seat in Quebec but there are differing opinions out there.

The Greens are not expected to win May's riding, due to much lower exposure this campaign.