Conservative lead 14 over NDP [!!!], time running out for majority

I haven't had the time to do one of these projection updates since the start of the campaign, but here we go, with just over a week left. And what a week to do one, with what is beginning to look like the Orange Revolution!

The NDP has OVERTAKEN the Liberal party for second place, even if just barely, in the rolling poll average, and a few more of these polls and they will inch ahead of the Bloc in their home turf! Of course, a general rule in Canadian politics is that the most boring thing will end up happening...so...don't hold your breath yet.

Perhaps this is time to revisit my analysis of the probability of the following scenarios:

Harper majority - With a lack of movement in the polls as the campaign draws to a close, Harper's chance at a majority isn't moving in the right direction - 4.0 (-0.5)

Liberal government - A sharp decline since the debates is not helping the Liberals in their quest to return to power by themselves - 1.5 (-1.5)

NDP official opposition - A strong showing by Layton at the debate precluded skyrocketing poll numbers, especially in Quebec, and the payoff could be handsome - 4.0 (+2.5)

Harper's road Bloc - The NDP is on the verge of a large windfall in Quebec right now, and if the Bloc slips even a bit further they will no longer be in Harper's way - 3.5 (-3.0)

Elected in May - Excluded from the debates and absolutely ignored by the media, the Greens are spinning their wheels to no avail - 1.0 (-1.5)

And perhaps to add a couple previously fantastical situations:

Prime Minister Layton - Should the NDP continues to charge ahead, the leader of the coalition may well be Jack Layton, provided the Liberals and Bloc can stomach it - 1.5 (+1.5)

Liberals in fourth - If the Bloc stops the leakage but Ontario jumps on the NDP bandwagon, the Liberals may well find themselves even deeper into historical disaster - 0.5 (+0.5)

And so, vote and seat averages:

Party -------- Vote % - Seats - BC/Nor - AB - SK/MN - ON - PQ - Atl
Conservative - 37.91 --- 150 ----- 21 --- 27 ---- 22 ---- 56 ---- 9 -- 15
Liberal ---------- 23.78 ---- 60 ------ 6 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 33 ---- 8 -- 11
NDP ------------ 23.95 ---- 55 ----- 12 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 17 --- 15 -- 6
Bloc ------------- 6.92 ----- 42 --------------------------------------- 42 ----
Green ----------- 5.50 ---------------------------------------------------------
Other ----------- 1.93 ------- 1 ---------------------------------------- 1 -----