BC final call: weekend campaigning changes nothing

As it is past midnight, it should be safe to post the final BC projection update. From last day polls released by EKOS, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid, it can be inferred that Liberal momentum has stalled, and the NDP will win by a reasonable amount, if not the landslide originally imagined.

The final weighted rolling poll average gives the NDP a 7.0pp lead, enough to secure a comfortable majority:
New Democrat   43-47%  [median 45.4]  46-56 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        36-40%  [median 38.4]  27-37 seats  [median 34]  Green           6-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 1 seats  [median  0] 
Conservative    4- 7%  [median  5.4]   0- 0 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

For the minor points: the Greens should only have a realistic shot in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with Andrew Weaver. The Conservatives really are in no position to win any seats anymore, although they should place second in a couple interior ridings. I still see 2 independents winning, most likely Arthur Hadland in Peace River North and Vicki Huntington in Delta South.

As for the final call...
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

Muddied waters: NDP lead shrinks marginally to 6.7pp

The slew of polls (Oraclepoll, Hill & Knowlton, Forum, Justason, Ipsos Reid, and Angus Reid) over the past couple of days has been rather unhelpful, with Forum at one end showing an NDP lead of just 2 and Justason on the other end with an NDP lead of 14. The one thing that is clear is that Green and Conservative support is collapsing back into the NDP and Liberals, respectively, with the Liberals perhaps gaining marginally more. Suffice to say the stakes are high over the final weekend.

For now, the numbers:
New Democrat   42-48%  [median 45.2]  39-61 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        35-41%  [median 38.5]  22-44 seats  [median 34] 
Green           6-10%  [median  8.1]   0- 2 seats  [median  0] Conservative    4- 8%  [median  5.6]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.6]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

We've now moved into the messy realm of overlapping seat ranges. The election has steadily become closer throughout the campaign. That said, the NDP are still overwhelming favourites.

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

Post-debate: NDP lead drops to 8.0 7.4 7.9pp

Campaigns matter. Debates move votes. The two post-debate polls published today offer proof, as Forum and Insights West both show the lead narrowing by a large amount. The Greens are also ticking up in the weighted rolling average. A couple more polls would be nice to see if it's a blip or whether the debate actually moved support significantly. The new numbers certainly suggest that it's no longer a walk in the park for the NDP like at the writ drop.

EDIT: Angus Reid also published a poll showing a narrowing NDP lead into the single-digits. This does very little except swap one Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat as the poll is actually very much in line with the polling average already.

EDIT 2: Ipsos Reid finally published as well, also with a move toward the Liberals, although with a slightly larger NDP lead much like their last poll. This poll does nothing more than swap that Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat back.

New Democrat   41-47%  [median 44.5]  43-60 seats  [median 51]
Liberal        33-38%  [median 36.6]  23-40 seats  [median 32]
Green           8-11%  [median  9.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Conservative    6- 9%  [median  7.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.8]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 17.

Pre-debate: Liberals narrow race, but gap still wide

The final candidates list is out from Elections BC and it appears that the Greens and Conservatives will be fielding just under 60/85 candidates each. Accordingly, both parties will begin to be penalised in the polling average, as with missing candidates it is very hard to achieve the vote share that province-wide polls indicate. The "other" column has therefore grown, and so has the NDP (marginally), but the biggest beneficiary is the Liberals. The polling conducted this week features a rather large array of results so there is extra uncertainty in the numbers but the net effect is the Liberals moving up.

The actual numbers below:
New Democrat   43-49%  [median 47.1]  45-70 seats  [median 57]
Liberal        30-36%  [median 33.8]  15-38 seats  [median 26]
Conservative    7-10%  [median  8.0]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Green           7-10%  [median  8.4]   0- 2 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.

While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.

For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.

The writ drops: BC NDP start with huge 17.8pp lead

The election has officially begun and so Politically Uncorrect returns to the field of election prediction. The big questions being asked this round:

How big will the NDP majority be? (as it would take an act of God for them to lose, and maybe not even then)
Will the Greens and Conservatives be able to elect MLAs?
How many independents will be elected?

Right now, the best short answers to those questions are landslide, yes, and two, in that order.

Without further ado, the solid numbers:

New Democrat   45-49%  [median 46.8]  55-70 seats  [median 62]
Liberal        27-31%  [median 29.0]  12-28 seats  [median 20]
Conservative   10-13%  [median 11.7]   0- 4 seats  [median  1]
Green           9-12%  [median 10.5]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 3%  [median  2.0]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]

The Conservatives have some strength in the BC Interior and if their slate of candidates includes some credible names in the interior there are a few seats where they could factor in. I'm particularly looking at the BC Peace and the Southern Interior where they placed respectably last election.

The Greens also have potentially enough concentrated support on the South Island to have a shot, given Elizabeth May and Donald Galloway's performances there, but translating federal to provincial support is somewhat of an enigma.

There are 4 strong independent candidates with a chance of winning their seats but with NDP support as strong as it is now they may not all be elected. I'll need to see how good their personal followings are before tweaking the projection.

As for the main result, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 39.

Quebec final call

After the polling fiasco that was Alberta, I am wary of doing this, but to maintain the integrity of the blog, I have to make this final call.

Polls generally show that the PQ has stagnated but remains ahead, and that the Liberals have lost votes to the CAQ. This seems to suggest the PQ will win, with the two questions being whether they manage a majority, and who forms the opposition. I am wary of this because CROP gives a 19% undecided rate, which makes for a lot of fluidity. While the PQ has the best shot of forming government, it does not completely rule out everybody else. The ranges may look ridiculously large but I think the results will validate the approach once again. The numbers are as follows:

Party   Low  Votes(%)  High    Low  Seats  High
PLQ     24     27.5     31     25     32     43
PQ      30     33.0     36     42     62     76
CAQ     24     27.9     32     18     29     45
QS       6      7.6      9      1      2      3
PVQ      1      1.4      2
ON       1      2.0      3      0      0      1
Other    0      0.6      1

At 33%, that the PQ even has a chance at a majority is astounding testament to how efficient their vote is. That being said, an even distribution is not always good because as evidenced by their cousins the Bloc last year, being evenly low through the province kills your seat count. Fortunately for them, they're on the high side of this fine line, and will still most likely win.

The Liberals, on the other hand, can tank and still retain a good number of seats. Their vote is heavily concentrated on the English West Island of Montreal, which means that even if their support plummets elsewhere, they'll still have a floor of 25 safe seats.

As the ranges show, things could become extremely messy tomorrow evening. I, however, will stick with the most likely option: Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MINORITY.

First Quebec projection: PQ leads by 3.5

The Quebec election was actually called some 2 weeks ago, but a dearth of polling has left the projection somewhat delayed. I must clarify that while my spreadsheet objectively projects the vote, I subjectively predict the seats (and adjust the vote % according to likelihood to vote etc.).

A little brief about Quebec politics:

The Liberals (PLQ) are the long-standing federalist option. They're fairly centrist most of the time, and have been the dominant party recently, winning every election but one since the 1995 referendum. They are led by Jean Charest, has been described as having 9 lives. Charest has been premier for 9 years and is certainly the veteran, having survived the ADQ surge of 2007 (which resulted in a minority house with an ADQ opposition).

The Parti Québécois (PQ) are their main separatist competition. They've fought every election since 1970 and have been either government or official opposition in all but two (1970 and 2007). They are led by Pauline Marois. Supporters have nicknamed her la dame de béton (The Concrete Lady) after she survived a party revolt last year.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is a new conservative movement founded by former PQ minister François Legault, who has apparently renounced separation (at least for 10 years). They sit at a strong third, replacing the ADQ late last year. There is historical precedent for a surge in centre-right support (most notably by their predecessors in 2007), and Legault does hold the highest approval rating of all 3 leaders, so this could become interesting.

The Québec Solidaire (QS) is a left or even far-left separatist party "represented" (they don't have leaders) by Amir Khadir and Françoise David. They currently have 1 seat in the National Assembly, and are in the hunt for a second. Their stance on the political spectrum means that they compete for support with the PQ, which limits their competitiveness given their relative lack of establishment.

There are also the Green Party (PVQ) and Option Nationale (ON). Even though ON has one MNA (a defector from the PQ), both parties are not expected to challenge for seats.

And now, the first set of numbers:

Party   Low  Votes(%)  High    Low  Seats  High
PLQ     30     32.2     35     29     43     55
PQ      33     35.7     38     46     63     76
CAQ     21     24.1     27     12     18     31
QS       4      5.5      7      1      1      2
PVQ      1      1.5      2
ON       0      0.5      1
Other    0      0.6      1

The PQ actually manages to squeeze a majority (albeit of only 1 seat) out of this because they have a much more efficient vote distribution. The Liberals pile up massive majorities in the anglophone vote and they usually don't matter very much except on the West Island. So there you have it.