Friday, May 10, 2013

Muddied waters: NDP lead shrinks marginally to 6.7pp

The slew of polls (Oraclepoll, Hill & Knowlton, Forum, Justason, Ipsos Reid, and Angus Reid) over the past couple of days has been rather unhelpful, with Forum at one end showing an NDP lead of just 2 and Justason on the other end with an NDP lead of 14. The one thing that is clear is that Green and Conservative support is collapsing back into the NDP and Liberals, respectively, with the Liberals perhaps gaining marginally more. Suffice to say the stakes are high over the final weekend.

For now, the numbers:
New Democrat   42-48%  [median 45.2]  39-61 seats  [median 49]
Liberal        35-41%  [median 38.5]  22-44 seats  [median 34]
 
Green           6-10%  [median  8.1]   0- 2 seats  [median  0] Conservative    4- 8%  [median  5.6]   0- 1 seats  [median  0]
Other           1- 4%  [median  2.6]   0- 4 seats  [median  2]


We've now moved into the messy realm of overlapping seat ranges. The election has steadily become closer throughout the campaign. That said, the NDP are still overwhelming favourites.

Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.

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