Decision 2010: Australian federal election

"The people have spoken, but it's going to take a little time to determine what they said."

~ Bill Clinton

These words describe perfectly the situation Australia faces in the coming week. Last night, Australia voted in a federal election, to decide how its 150 'divisions' would be distributed. The side that gets itself elected in 76 divisions is the side who gets to form government.

The election was being touted as the closest in Australian history, and it did not disappoint. I spent last evening watching the drama unfold on the ABC, and in the end, after two hours of analysis, the panel could only say, "We have no idea."

When I went to bed, the governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) was elected or leading in 72 divisions, and the opposition Liberal/National Coalition in 73. Needless to say, it would be the smallest margin between the two major sides, ever. It looks almost set to be the first hung parliament in Australia in 70 years.

73 and 72 add up to 145. The remaining 5 divisions are split between 4 independent members and the first Green ever to be elected into the Australian lower house. The Green and one of the independent members are likely to vote with the ALP. The other 3 have conservative backgrounds, and are more likely to side with the Coalition. If that's the case, left-of-centre members add to 74, and right-of-centre members add to 76. The Coalition has the upper hand; but at the end of the day, anything can happen, and nobody has a clue who will be the Prime Minister of Australia at this time next week.

This result was actually a bit of a shock. Every poll released on the last day before the election had the ALP ahead by a razor-thin margin. It would either be a Labor hung parliament or a bare Labor majority. The Coalition was only given an outside chance.

As a strange election, it had strange beginnings. Labor's term actually constitutionally lasts until November. Julia Gillard decided to call a snap election just weeks after deposing Kevin Rudd as Labor leader and Prime Minister. Indeed, it would seem her initial popularity was enough to steer Labor to an easy victory. But as the campaign progressed, Labor had what the media called a "disastrous" week, opening the door to Tony Abbot, leader of the Coalition.

With several very close seats, postal votes and recounts could still alter the makeup of the lower house. If the situation changes to 72 for the Coalition and 73 for Labor, and the other members split towards their "natural" leanings, then we would end up with 75 for the Coalition, and 75 for Labor. In such a case, neither party might be able to form a government. Parliament could then immediately dissolve, and a new election called.

Constitutional crisis, anyone?

UPDATE: Labor has won the backing of the Green AND 3 of the independents, allowing them to form government with a razor-thin majority of 76 to 74. Julia Gillard will continue as Prime Minister.