Over the past weekend, there was a noticeable shift of support away from the Liberals and to the PCs. That tide, however, as since been stemmed. The NDP also experienced a minor uptick.
While the number of undecideds is still huge, at about 20-25% of the population, it would take nearly all of that to break the NDP's way for them to retain government. Add to that fact that there's no eleventh hour Forum poll showing a suddenly much closer race, and Stephen McNeil looks set to be Premier-elect tomorrow evening:
NDP 27-31% [median 28.9] 10-18 seats [median 14]
Liberal 44-48% [median 46.0] 27-35 seats [median 31]
PC 22-26% [median 23.7] 4- 8 seats [median 6]
Green 0- 2% [median 1.0] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Since the last update, the NDP has edged up 1.0pp and 4 seats, and the PCs have jumped 4.8pp and 2 seats. This was at the expense of the Liberals, who have lost 5.6pp and 6 seats. However, given the Liberals' massive lead over the middle portion of
the campaign, it was much a case of too little, too late for Premier
Dexter.
And so, Politically Uncorrect's final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 11.
And if, by yet another freak of Canadian politics, the NDP manage to retain the seat of government tomorrow, the Leafs will most certainly be the 2014 Stanley Cup Champions. You read it here first.
Monday, October 7, 2013
Thursday, October 3, 2013
NS Libs support solidifies, lead by 23.7
Since last week, the Nova Scotia Liberals have moved up, the PCs have moved down, and the NDP has been stable. Abacus Data has joined CRA in the field, and the results are similar, with the small difference being Abacus has the PCs higher at the expense of the Liberals. Still, the Liberal lead remains massive in both polls.
The fly in the ointment is the high percentage (20-30%) of undecided voters that both firms are recording. This is the primary reason for somewhat large ranges in the projection, but the Liberal lead is large enough that a majority remains the only likely outcome.
NDP 26-31% [median 27.9] 6-16 seats [median 10]
Liberal 48-53% [median 51.6] 31-41 seats [median 37]
PC 17-22% [median 18.9] 3- 5 seats [median 4]
Green 0- 2% [median 1.1] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
The Liberal range extends further down than up, and the NDP extends higher up than down, because governments usually wind up with an incumbency bonus. However, I'm not expecting anything like BC or Alberta despite the high undecided figure because the situation is completely different. In Alberta, the opposition was inexperienced and a bit too far right for comfort. In BC, the opposition leader was not charismatic and his party was untrusted with the economy. Stephen McNeil is personally popular and his party has been in government before without disaster.
Therefore, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 23.
The fly in the ointment is the high percentage (20-30%) of undecided voters that both firms are recording. This is the primary reason for somewhat large ranges in the projection, but the Liberal lead is large enough that a majority remains the only likely outcome.
NDP 26-31% [median 27.9] 6-16 seats [median 10]
Liberal 48-53% [median 51.6] 31-41 seats [median 37]
PC 17-22% [median 18.9] 3- 5 seats [median 4]
Green 0- 2% [median 1.1] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
The Liberal range extends further down than up, and the NDP extends higher up than down, because governments usually wind up with an incumbency bonus. However, I'm not expecting anything like BC or Alberta despite the high undecided figure because the situation is completely different. In Alberta, the opposition was inexperienced and a bit too far right for comfort. In BC, the opposition leader was not charismatic and his party was untrusted with the economy. Stephen McNeil is personally popular and his party has been in government before without disaster.
Therefore, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 23.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
NS Liberals in pole position, lead by 22.0 over NDP
Nova Scotia dropped the writ over 2 weeks ago, so this has been a long time coming. CRA is doing daily tracking, but no other company is out polling, so updates will be a bit scarce. That said, there's no question about which party is ahead right now, despite the shaken confidence in opinion polling. Without further ado, here is the first Nova Scotia projection:
NDP 27-31% [median 28.2] 9-18 seats [median 12]
Liberal 48-52% [median 50.2] 29-38 seats [median 35]
PC 19-22% [median 20.3] 2- 6 seats [median 4]
Green 0- 2% [median 0.8] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Rationale: The Greens have only fielded 16 candidates out of 51, and will be hard pressed to take more than 1% of the vote. I've penalised them accordingly. There are 7 independents, who will likely take about 0.5% of the vote. These figures will probably not move much.
The debate earlier tonight may move public opinion, but it'll have to be pretty drastic to stop Stephen McNeil's Liberals from winning for the first time since 1998. Currently, they have a > 99% chance of a majority, and there are only 13 days left for their opponents to whittle down their gigantic poll lead. Premier Darrell Dexter will need to hope for an even larger miracle than either Redford or Clark engineered, and PC leader Jamie Baillie may want to start working to just cling onto as many seats as possible.
Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 19.
NDP 27-31% [median 28.2] 9-18 seats [median 12]
Liberal 48-52% [median 50.2] 29-38 seats [median 35]
PC 19-22% [median 20.3] 2- 6 seats [median 4]
Green 0- 2% [median 0.8] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 0- 1% [median 0.5] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Rationale: The Greens have only fielded 16 candidates out of 51, and will be hard pressed to take more than 1% of the vote. I've penalised them accordingly. There are 7 independents, who will likely take about 0.5% of the vote. These figures will probably not move much.
The debate earlier tonight may move public opinion, but it'll have to be pretty drastic to stop Stephen McNeil's Liberals from winning for the first time since 1998. Currently, they have a > 99% chance of a majority, and there are only 13 days left for their opponents to whittle down their gigantic poll lead. Premier Darrell Dexter will need to hope for an even larger miracle than either Redford or Clark engineered, and PC leader Jamie Baillie may want to start working to just cling onto as many seats as possible.
Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 19.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
BC final call: weekend campaigning changes nothing
As it is past midnight, it should be safe to post the final BC projection update. From last day polls released by EKOS, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid, it can be inferred that Liberal momentum has stalled, and the NDP will win by a reasonable amount, if not the landslide originally imagined.
The final weighted rolling poll average gives the NDP a 7.0pp lead, enough to secure a comfortable majority:
New Democrat 43-47% [median 45.4] 46-56 seats [median 49]
Liberal 36-40% [median 38.4] 27-37 seats [median 34] Green 6-10% [median 8.0] 0- 1 seats [median 0]
Conservative 4- 7% [median 5.4] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 1- 4% [median 2.8] 0- 4 seats [median 2]
For the minor points: the Greens should only have a realistic shot in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with Andrew Weaver. The Conservatives really are in no position to win any seats anymore, although they should place second in a couple interior ridings. I still see 2 independents winning, most likely Arthur Hadland in Peace River North and Vicki Huntington in Delta South.
As for the final call...
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.
The final weighted rolling poll average gives the NDP a 7.0pp lead, enough to secure a comfortable majority:
New Democrat 43-47% [median 45.4] 46-56 seats [median 49]
Liberal 36-40% [median 38.4] 27-37 seats [median 34] Green 6-10% [median 8.0] 0- 1 seats [median 0]
Conservative 4- 7% [median 5.4] 0- 0 seats [median 0]
Other 1- 4% [median 2.8] 0- 4 seats [median 2]
For the minor points: the Greens should only have a realistic shot in Oak Bay-Gordon Head with Andrew Weaver. The Conservatives really are in no position to win any seats anymore, although they should place second in a couple interior ridings. I still see 2 independents winning, most likely Arthur Hadland in Peace River North and Vicki Huntington in Delta South.
As for the final call...
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.
Friday, May 10, 2013
Muddied waters: NDP lead shrinks marginally to 6.7pp
The slew of polls (Oraclepoll, Hill & Knowlton, Forum, Justason, Ipsos Reid, and Angus Reid) over the past couple of days has been rather unhelpful, with Forum at one end showing an NDP lead of just 2 and Justason on the other end with an NDP lead of 14. The one thing that is clear is that Green and Conservative support is collapsing back into the NDP and Liberals, respectively, with the Liberals perhaps gaining marginally more. Suffice to say the stakes are high over the final weekend.
For now, the numbers:
New Democrat 42-48% [median 45.2] 39-61 seats [median 49]
Liberal 35-41% [median 38.5] 22-44 seats [median 34]
Green 6-10% [median 8.1] 0- 2 seats [median 0] Conservative 4- 8% [median 5.6] 0- 1 seats [median 0]
Other 1- 4% [median 2.6] 0- 4 seats [median 2]
We've now moved into the messy realm of overlapping seat ranges. The election has steadily become closer throughout the campaign. That said, the NDP are still overwhelming favourites.
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.
For now, the numbers:
New Democrat 42-48% [median 45.2] 39-61 seats [median 49]
Liberal 35-41% [median 38.5] 22-44 seats [median 34]
Green 6-10% [median 8.1] 0- 2 seats [median 0] Conservative 4- 8% [median 5.6] 0- 1 seats [median 0]
Other 1- 4% [median 2.6] 0- 4 seats [median 2]
We've now moved into the messy realm of overlapping seat ranges. The election has steadily become closer throughout the campaign. That said, the NDP are still overwhelming favourites.
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 13.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Post-debate: NDP lead drops to 8.0 7.4 7.9pp
Campaigns matter. Debates move votes. The two post-debate polls published today offer proof, as Forum and Insights West both show the lead narrowing by a large amount. The Greens are also ticking up in the weighted rolling average. A couple more polls would be nice to see if it's a blip or whether the debate actually moved support significantly. The new numbers certainly suggest that it's no longer a walk in the park for the NDP like at the writ drop.
EDIT: Angus Reid also published a poll showing a narrowing NDP lead into the single-digits. This does very little except swap one Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat as the poll is actually very much in line with the polling average already.
EDIT 2: Ipsos Reid finally published as well, also with a move toward the Liberals, although with a slightly larger NDP lead much like their last poll. This poll does nothing more than swap that Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat back.
New Democrat 41-47% [median 44.5] 43-60 seats [median 51]
Liberal 33-38% [median 36.6] 23-40 seats [median 32]
Green 8-11% [median 9.0] 0- 2 seats [median 0]
Conservative 6- 9% [median 7.0] 0- 2 seats [median 0]
Other 1- 4% [median 2.8] 0- 4 seats [median 2]
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 17.
EDIT: Angus Reid also published a poll showing a narrowing NDP lead into the single-digits. This does very little except swap one Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat as the poll is actually very much in line with the polling average already.
EDIT 2: Ipsos Reid finally published as well, also with a move toward the Liberals, although with a slightly larger NDP lead much like their last poll. This poll does nothing more than swap that Liberal minimum/NDP maximum seat back.
New Democrat 41-47% [median 44.5] 43-60 seats [median 51]
Liberal 33-38% [median 36.6] 23-40 seats [median 32]
Green 8-11% [median 9.0] 0- 2 seats [median 0]
Conservative 6- 9% [median 7.0] 0- 2 seats [median 0]
Other 1- 4% [median 2.8] 0- 4 seats [median 2]
Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 17.
Monday, April 29, 2013
Pre-debate: Liberals narrow race, but gap still wide
The final candidates list is out from Elections BC and it appears that the Greens and Conservatives will be fielding just under 60/85 candidates each. Accordingly, both parties will begin to be penalised in the polling average, as with missing candidates it is very hard to achieve the vote share that province-wide polls indicate. The "other" column has therefore grown, and so has the NDP (marginally), but the biggest beneficiary is the Liberals. The polling conducted this week features a rather large array of results so there is extra uncertainty in the numbers but the net effect is the Liberals moving up.
The actual numbers below:
New Democrat 43-49% [median 47.1] 45-70 seats [median 57]
Liberal 30-36% [median 33.8] 15-38 seats [median 26]
Conservative 7-10% [median 8.0] 0- 2 seats [median 0]
Green 7-10% [median 8.4] 0- 2 seats [median 0]
Other 1- 3% [median 2.7] 0- 4 seats [median 2]
The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.
While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.
For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.
The actual numbers below:
New Democrat 43-49% [median 47.1] 45-70 seats [median 57]
Liberal 30-36% [median 33.8] 15-38 seats [median 26]
Conservative 7-10% [median 8.0] 0- 2 seats [median 0]
Green 7-10% [median 8.4] 0- 2 seats [median 0]
Other 1- 3% [median 2.7] 0- 4 seats [median 2]
The Conservatives have shown a distinct lack of organisation that has dissuaded me of their current ability to win seats. They still have potential, but the rate things are going it is not likely. The Greens still have potential on the South Island but are a bit of an enigma still, since translating federal to provincial support is very tricky. The situation with independent candidates remains static.
While the Liberals are beginning to look like they will not face a wipeout, if they are to have any hope of even being competitive, they must hope for Premier Clark to fare exceedingly well in tonight's debate. Once some solid post-debate numbers are out, Politically Uncorrect will again look at the numbers.
For now, Politically Uncorrect projects an NDP MAJORITY of 29.
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