Forum has, once again, come out with a shocking poll at the last minute. It shows the PQ vote collapsing (24) and the PLQ gaining (44). The CAQ is again much higher (23) and is nipping at the heals of the PQ. Angus Reid also did a poll, their first in Quebec in several years now, showing a similar close race between the CAQ (25) and PQ (27), but with a much lower Liberal score (39).
With these figures, the PQ once again loses seats in the projection:
PQ 25-30% [median 27.0] (1.4) 32-50 seats [median 40] (5)
PLQ 37-42% [median 40.2] (0.9) 60-78 seats [median 70] (1)
CAQ 21-25% [median 22.5] (1.6) 8-18 seats [median 13] (4)
QS 7-10% [median 8.0] (1.3) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 1% [median 0.8] (0.2) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 1% [median 0.5] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
There are several alternate scenarios which could play out, by decreasing likelihood. The main projection is, of course, still the most likely scenario.
1) Angus Reid was the top performer in the many federal and provincial elections. They're right again, and the CAQ vote ends up very close to the PQ:
PLQ 65-71, PQ 33-39, CAQ 16-20, QS 2-3
The PQ edge in efficiency keeps them well ahead in seats.
2) Liberal ballot box bonus, a la 2012 (or, Forum is right):
PLQ 82-88, PQ 24-30, CAQ 9-13, QS 2
Massive Liberal majority, PQ disaster. Liberal strength keeps CAQ down despite vote over 20%.
3) The PQ completely collapses, CAQ carries momentum to finish ahead (in votes). In this situation, the Liberals also drop a bit:
PLQ 59-65, PQ 29-35, CAQ 25-31, QS 2-4
Liberal majority in question, as well as who gets the Official Opposition. PQ weakness also opens up a third and fourth seat to QS. Most exciting situation.
4) Completely defying momentum and trends, the PQ recovers (obviously least likely):
PLQ 53-59, PQ 51-57, CAQ 11-15, QS 2-3
Government formation impossible to predict, CAQ important with balance of power.
Because of the whirlwind end to the campaign, and the CAQ rebounding to dark horse status, there could be a lot of surprises tomorrow night. Once again, we are reminded that campaigns DO matter.
The Politically Uncorrect final call: LIBERAL MAJORITY of 15.
Sunday, April 6, 2014
Friday, April 4, 2014
The closing stretch: is the Liberal advantage as solid as it seems?
The campaign is drawing to a close, and all the new polls are pointing at the same thing: a large PLQ lead with the CAQ on the rebound. This projection will likely be the second last one, with the final one coming on Monday morning or so, with all the final adjustments made.
The numbers are here:
PQ 27-31% [median 28.4] (6.2) 41-53 seats [median 45] (8)
PLQ 37-41% [median 39.3] (2.1) 61-75 seats [median 69] (3)
CAQ 19-23% [median 20.9] (7.4) 6-15 seats [median 9] (5)
QS 7-11% [median 9.3] (1.0) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 1% [median 0.6] (0.2) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 1% [median 0.6] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.2) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Now is the time to investigate whether the Liberal lead really is as strong as it looks. On paper, a 10+ percentage point lead seems somewhat insurmountable. Alison Redford overcame a small 2pp lead in the polling average, and even Christy Clark "only" overcame an 8pp margin.
The first thing to look at is "likely voters." As many elections have shown us, the people who answer polls may not be the same people who vote. That said, both Ipsos Reid and EKOS have included a "likely voter" formula, and neither shows a bounce for the PQ. I've used their "likely voter" numbers in the poll projection either, so hopefully turnout won't throw this off as far as previous elections.
Looking at recent trends, the PLQ is clearly stagnant or even declining slightly from their peak position. Two weeks ago, they were forecast between 39-44%. Now, that has decreased to 37-41%. A Couillard majority is NOT guaranteed.
However, in the same period, the PQ has had a disastrous stretch, from a forecast of 32-37% to just 27-31%. Those ranges don't even overlap! The only thing that the PQ can hope for now is an incumbency bonus. Usually, incumbent members or governments get a bounce at the ballot box, and they perform better than polls suggest. I may tweak the numbers slightly to account for that in the final update. At this point, though, it looks like the Liberal lead is fairly safe. It would take a small miracle for Marois to pull out a victory now.
As for the CAQ, incumbency could really be a huge factor for them, especially now that they're on a clear upswing. It's highly likely that the CAQ will save more of their seats than most people expect. The same thing happened with their predecessors, the ADQ, in the 2008 election. The projection accounts for that, and so the CAQ seat count is a bit on the high side. That number might rise further by Monday. Legault's second debate performance really saved his hide.
For now, though, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 13.
The numbers are here:
PQ 27-31% [median 28.4] (6.2) 41-53 seats [median 45] (8)
PLQ 37-41% [median 39.3] (2.1) 61-75 seats [median 69] (3)
CAQ 19-23% [median 20.9] (7.4) 6-15 seats [median 9] (5)
QS 7-11% [median 9.3] (1.0) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 1% [median 0.6] (0.2) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 1% [median 0.6] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.2) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Now is the time to investigate whether the Liberal lead really is as strong as it looks. On paper, a 10+ percentage point lead seems somewhat insurmountable. Alison Redford overcame a small 2pp lead in the polling average, and even Christy Clark "only" overcame an 8pp margin.
The first thing to look at is "likely voters." As many elections have shown us, the people who answer polls may not be the same people who vote. That said, both Ipsos Reid and EKOS have included a "likely voter" formula, and neither shows a bounce for the PQ. I've used their "likely voter" numbers in the poll projection either, so hopefully turnout won't throw this off as far as previous elections.
Looking at recent trends, the PLQ is clearly stagnant or even declining slightly from their peak position. Two weeks ago, they were forecast between 39-44%. Now, that has decreased to 37-41%. A Couillard majority is NOT guaranteed.
However, in the same period, the PQ has had a disastrous stretch, from a forecast of 32-37% to just 27-31%. Those ranges don't even overlap! The only thing that the PQ can hope for now is an incumbency bonus. Usually, incumbent members or governments get a bounce at the ballot box, and they perform better than polls suggest. I may tweak the numbers slightly to account for that in the final update. At this point, though, it looks like the Liberal lead is fairly safe. It would take a small miracle for Marois to pull out a victory now.
As for the CAQ, incumbency could really be a huge factor for them, especially now that they're on a clear upswing. It's highly likely that the CAQ will save more of their seats than most people expect. The same thing happened with their predecessors, the ADQ, in the 2008 election. The projection accounts for that, and so the CAQ seat count is a bit on the high side. That number might rise further by Monday. Legault's second debate performance really saved his hide.
For now, though, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 13.
Tuesday, April 1, 2014
Week 5: lose-lose
With attack-style politics thoroughly entrenched in Canada, politics is a blood sport at best, and an all-out war of attrition at worst. Elections are seldom won, but often lost. Such is the logic behind the saying, "oppositions can't win elections, governments lose them."
And yet, oppositions can most certainly lose elections as well. Most recently, Adrian Dix lost the BC election by waffling over Kinder Morgan, opening to door to vicious attacks by the Liberals on his economic platform. Even "winners" can also lose. Marois herself had to settle for a razor-thin 4 seat minority last time because of a lacklustre campaign, even while Charest was well and truly f**ked by the Charbonneau commission on corruption.
In fact, the last time someone actually won an election was when Mulroney fought the 1988 election over NAFTA. His record-setting 211 seats in the 1984 election? That was all Turner making gaffe after gaffe.
So, it's not about winning, at all. Rather, it's all about not losing.
And that brings us to Quebec campaign. The question this week: who can survive?
Couillard's performance in the second debate can be described by one word: limp. He was attacked on all sides on the question of integrity. Perhaps the person who swung hardest was Legault, who has been bleeding support to Couillard over concerns of a PQ majority.
Meanwhile, a bombshell dropped today when allegations surfaced that Marois' husband, Claude Blanchet, accepted illegal donations for her leadership bid from a donor who wanted access to Marois. Although she's strongly denied this, the shadow has already been cast over her integrity. What's worse is, she's been trying all campaign to pin the integrity issue onto Couillard. This could make her look like a crook and a hypocrite.
There has been a lack of polling last week, save for a Leger poll confirming the situation before these two events. Expect the next batch of polls to show declines for both Marois and Couillard. Entering the final week of this campaign, whoever drops less is key.
And yet, oppositions can most certainly lose elections as well. Most recently, Adrian Dix lost the BC election by waffling over Kinder Morgan, opening to door to vicious attacks by the Liberals on his economic platform. Even "winners" can also lose. Marois herself had to settle for a razor-thin 4 seat minority last time because of a lacklustre campaign, even while Charest was well and truly f**ked by the Charbonneau commission on corruption.
In fact, the last time someone actually won an election was when Mulroney fought the 1988 election over NAFTA. His record-setting 211 seats in the 1984 election? That was all Turner making gaffe after gaffe.
So, it's not about winning, at all. Rather, it's all about not losing.
And that brings us to Quebec campaign. The question this week: who can survive?
Couillard's performance in the second debate can be described by one word: limp. He was attacked on all sides on the question of integrity. Perhaps the person who swung hardest was Legault, who has been bleeding support to Couillard over concerns of a PQ majority.
Meanwhile, a bombshell dropped today when allegations surfaced that Marois' husband, Claude Blanchet, accepted illegal donations for her leadership bid from a donor who wanted access to Marois. Although she's strongly denied this, the shadow has already been cast over her integrity. What's worse is, she's been trying all campaign to pin the integrity issue onto Couillard. This could make her look like a crook and a hypocrite.
There has been a lack of polling last week, save for a Leger poll confirming the situation before these two events. Expect the next batch of polls to show declines for both Marois and Couillard. Entering the final week of this campaign, whoever drops less is key.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Week 4: monumental cock-up?
When Pauline Marois called this election, she did so because she thought she could win a majority. As we enter week 4 of the campaign, all signs now point to that having backfired.
Spectacularly so, if we're to believe Forum Research, who once again have muddied the waters with a ground-breaking opinion poll showing a completely different race. Their firm has, in previous elections, also shown somewhat dubious numbers, to a mixed degree of success.
That the PQ campaign is struggling is not in question. The trends in other polls reflect this too. Recently, they have had trouble staying on message, and have lurched from issue to issue trying to find their footing. They have even gone so far as to suggest students from other provinces are trying to hijack the election through voter fraud. The demographic which is least likely to vote. Within hours, the chief electoral officer debunked that myth.
However, what is doubtful is that the Liberals have suddenly opened up a 13 point gap (instead of about 5 like everybody else is showing) and are cruising toward a victory. Fortunately, this is where the weighted rolling poll average comes in to smooth the wild swings:
PQ 32-37% [median 34.6] (1.1) 42-61 seats [median 53] (5)
PLQ 39-44% [median 41.4] (2.1) 58-76 seats [median 66] (5)
CAQ 12-15% [median 13.5] ( = ) 2- 5 seats [median 4] (=)
QS 7-10% [median 8.3] (0.4) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.3) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 1% [median 0.5] (0.3) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
The Liberals have once again picked up 5 seats at the expense of the PQ, although they may come back down a bit once new surveys are released. The Greens failed to put up a full slate of candidates, and the new numbers reflect this.
One question remains, though: is it the PQ or Forum who are headed toward a monumental cock-up?
For today, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 7.
Spectacularly so, if we're to believe Forum Research, who once again have muddied the waters with a ground-breaking opinion poll showing a completely different race. Their firm has, in previous elections, also shown somewhat dubious numbers, to a mixed degree of success.
That the PQ campaign is struggling is not in question. The trends in other polls reflect this too. Recently, they have had trouble staying on message, and have lurched from issue to issue trying to find their footing. They have even gone so far as to suggest students from other provinces are trying to hijack the election through voter fraud. The demographic which is least likely to vote. Within hours, the chief electoral officer debunked that myth.
However, what is doubtful is that the Liberals have suddenly opened up a 13 point gap (instead of about 5 like everybody else is showing) and are cruising toward a victory. Fortunately, this is where the weighted rolling poll average comes in to smooth the wild swings:
PQ 32-37% [median 34.6] (1.1) 42-61 seats [median 53] (5)
PLQ 39-44% [median 41.4] (2.1) 58-76 seats [median 66] (5)
CAQ 12-15% [median 13.5] ( = ) 2- 5 seats [median 4] (=)
QS 7-10% [median 8.3] (0.4) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.3) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 1% [median 0.5] (0.3) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
The Liberals have once again picked up 5 seats at the expense of the PQ, although they may come back down a bit once new surveys are released. The Greens failed to put up a full slate of candidates, and the new numbers reflect this.
One question remains, though: is it the PQ or Forum who are headed toward a monumental cock-up?
For today, Politically Uncorrect projects a LIBERAL MAJORITY of 7.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Liberal momentum builds ahead of debate
Two new polls (CROP & Ipsos) agree: Most Quebecers do not want another sovereignty referendum, but believe the PQ would hold one if they win a majority, therefore, they are moving to the Liberals. Couillard has, so far, successfully managed to frame the PQ as focused on another referendum. He has picked up support from the nervous voters previously in the CAQ
camp, because they see the Liberals as the best shot at stopping the PQ. Of course, PQ candidates attacking kosher or halal foods and comparing circumcision and baptism to rape didn't really help Marois.
To that end, the recruitment of PKP as a candidate has come back to bite Marois in the rear. The move was hailed as a game changer; and it may yet be, just not in the way Marois envisioned. She's trying to reframe her party's message around the controversial secular charter. That was evident when she sent minister Drainville out to talk exclusively about it. That will, no doubt, be part of her game plan in tomorrow's debate, on top of attacking the PLQ as the party of backroom deals and stuffed envelopes (a la Charest). Although, since this is the Couillard era, and not Charest, one wonders how effective that line of attack will be.
Look also for Francois Legault to attack Couillard more than Marois. He pretty much knows he's in no position to form government, and will now be simply trying to re-attract support. Given that a lot of that is moving to the Liberals, Legault will be swinging hard at Couillard.
This election looks increasingly likely to be determined by who sets the agenda, and not by the actual policy. If Couillard can keep the focus on the PQ's separatist roots, he will have the upper hand. The same can be said for Marois if she manages to redirect the message to secularism. Should Legault manage to worm himself in and talk about the economy, he may be able to prevent anybody from winning a majority and salvage a few seats.
For now, though:
PQ 33-38% [median 35.7] (1.7) 49-66 seats [median 58] (5)
PLQ 37-42% [median 39.3] (1.9) 52-70 seats [median 61] (5)
CAQ 12-15% [median 13.5] (0.8) 2- 5 seats [median 4] (=)
QS 7-10% [median 8.7] (0.7) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 1.1] (0.2) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Politically Uncorrect now projects a LIBERAL MINORITY (short 2).
To that end, the recruitment of PKP as a candidate has come back to bite Marois in the rear. The move was hailed as a game changer; and it may yet be, just not in the way Marois envisioned. She's trying to reframe her party's message around the controversial secular charter. That was evident when she sent minister Drainville out to talk exclusively about it. That will, no doubt, be part of her game plan in tomorrow's debate, on top of attacking the PLQ as the party of backroom deals and stuffed envelopes (a la Charest). Although, since this is the Couillard era, and not Charest, one wonders how effective that line of attack will be.
Look also for Francois Legault to attack Couillard more than Marois. He pretty much knows he's in no position to form government, and will now be simply trying to re-attract support. Given that a lot of that is moving to the Liberals, Legault will be swinging hard at Couillard.
This election looks increasingly likely to be determined by who sets the agenda, and not by the actual policy. If Couillard can keep the focus on the PQ's separatist roots, he will have the upper hand. The same can be said for Marois if she manages to redirect the message to secularism. Should Legault manage to worm himself in and talk about the economy, he may be able to prevent anybody from winning a majority and salvage a few seats.
For now, though:
PQ 33-38% [median 35.7] (1.7) 49-66 seats [median 58] (5)
PLQ 37-42% [median 39.3] (1.9) 52-70 seats [median 61] (5)
CAQ 12-15% [median 13.5] (0.8) 2- 5 seats [median 4] (=)
QS 7-10% [median 8.7] (0.7) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 1.1] (0.2) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.8] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
Politically Uncorrect now projects a LIBERAL MINORITY (short 2).
Monday, March 17, 2014
Week 3: debate prep
Leger released a poll last Friday which I didn't get a chance to put into the projection, but it basically confirms to close race. There's a little bit of good news for everyone, except the CAQ.
So, the numbers:
PQ 34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ 34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 45-64 seats [median 56] (1)
CAQ 12-16% [median 14.3] (1.2) 3- 5 seats [median 4] (1)
QS 6- 8% [median 8.0] (0.7) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.9] ( = ) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
The Liberals picked up a seat from the CAQ. The most troubling news for the CAQ is that they have no one region of strength anymore, since the Quebec City region is moving away from them in favour of the Liberals. It looks as though the sovereignty talk has moved some warier people into the federalist option. What's interesting is of the remaining CAQ backers, they prefer the Liberals 43-17 over the PQ as a second choice. Philippe Couillard has a clear path to victory. Whether he is successful in attracting these CAQ voters remains to be seen.
Pauline Marois still has enough francophone support to win an election, with a decent shot at a majority. However, it's clear that she can't rest on her laurels yet. With such a close race, Thursday's debate will be key. We'll likely see if that manages to shake things up the week after.
For now, Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.
So, the numbers:
PQ 34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 55-74 seats [median 63] (=)
PLQ 34-40% [median 37.4] (0.2) 45-64 seats [median 56] (1)
CAQ 12-16% [median 14.3] (1.2) 3- 5 seats [median 4] (1)
QS 6- 8% [median 8.0] (0.7) 2- 3 seats [median 2] (=)
ON 0- 2% [median 0.9] (0.1) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
PVQ 0- 2% [median 0.9] ( = ) 0- 0 seats [median 0] (=)
Other 0- 2% [median 1.0] (0.1) 0- 1 seats [median 0] (=)
The Liberals picked up a seat from the CAQ. The most troubling news for the CAQ is that they have no one region of strength anymore, since the Quebec City region is moving away from them in favour of the Liberals. It looks as though the sovereignty talk has moved some warier people into the federalist option. What's interesting is of the remaining CAQ backers, they prefer the Liberals 43-17 over the PQ as a second choice. Philippe Couillard has a clear path to victory. Whether he is successful in attracting these CAQ voters remains to be seen.
Pauline Marois still has enough francophone support to win an election, with a decent shot at a majority. However, it's clear that she can't rest on her laurels yet. With such a close race, Thursday's debate will be key. We'll likely see if that manages to shake things up the week after.
For now, Politically Uncorrect continues to project a PQ MAJORITY of 1.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Was PKP a bit of an own goal by the PQ?
Bob Rae had the line of the
day Friday when he said that a Quebec civil servant or a trade unionist voting
for Pierre-Karl Peladeau (nicknamed PKP) would be "like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders." Witty soundbite regardless,
he has a point. The PQ has sold itself out by courting a corporate media
czar in an attempt to shore up their own economic credentials.
A star candidate and a former president and CEO such as Peladeau will not be content to sit as a mere backbencher. If the PQ is re-elected, he will almost certainly feature in the cabinet. But, attempting to forge a cabinet out of social democrats and economic conservatives is like adding oil to water. The two will not mix well.
So what is Pauline Marois counting on, then? What would be the proverbial glue on which she is depending to hold a team together? As expounded on in the last post, traditional left-right politics plays second fiddle to sovereigntist-federalist politics in Quebec. Marois is likely hoping that the common goal of an independent Quebec will be enough to keep her future cabinet on the straight and narrow.
That much was evident when, during Peladeau's announcement on Monday, he proudly declared, "I am a sovereigntist!" This was followed by Marois' very public musings on the workings of an independent Quebec. However, Thursday morning came along, and with polls showing sovereignty working against the PQ, Marois and Peladeau quickly changed their tune.
During Thursday's press conference, Peladeau refused to answer any questions about sovereignty, and at one point even appeared frustrated and tried to redirect the questions toward the economy. Marois abruptly stopped mentioning Quebec as a nation. Such is the power of public opinion.
However, if sovereignty as a focusing point is wrenched away from the PQ, we return to the original question: what, exactly, does the PQ now stand for? With the entry of Peladeau, the waters are muddied. The whole point of bringing him on board was to show that the PQ isn't only a party of trade unionists and social democrats.
But is that really such a good idea, or has Marois only found a wedge to drive within her own party? If she wins this election, will she have only given herself future headaches trying to head a fractious cabinet? And if she fails, or even wins just a minority, will inviting PKP only have served to open the door to a leadership challenge, painful both personally and to the party?
Clearly, Bob Rae hit a sensitive spot Friday morning. Otherwise, Marois would not have taken exception to his quip, and told him to "mind [his] own business."
A star candidate and a former president and CEO such as Peladeau will not be content to sit as a mere backbencher. If the PQ is re-elected, he will almost certainly feature in the cabinet. But, attempting to forge a cabinet out of social democrats and economic conservatives is like adding oil to water. The two will not mix well.
So what is Pauline Marois counting on, then? What would be the proverbial glue on which she is depending to hold a team together? As expounded on in the last post, traditional left-right politics plays second fiddle to sovereigntist-federalist politics in Quebec. Marois is likely hoping that the common goal of an independent Quebec will be enough to keep her future cabinet on the straight and narrow.
That much was evident when, during Peladeau's announcement on Monday, he proudly declared, "I am a sovereigntist!" This was followed by Marois' very public musings on the workings of an independent Quebec. However, Thursday morning came along, and with polls showing sovereignty working against the PQ, Marois and Peladeau quickly changed their tune.
During Thursday's press conference, Peladeau refused to answer any questions about sovereignty, and at one point even appeared frustrated and tried to redirect the questions toward the economy. Marois abruptly stopped mentioning Quebec as a nation. Such is the power of public opinion.
However, if sovereignty as a focusing point is wrenched away from the PQ, we return to the original question: what, exactly, does the PQ now stand for? With the entry of Peladeau, the waters are muddied. The whole point of bringing him on board was to show that the PQ isn't only a party of trade unionists and social democrats.
But is that really such a good idea, or has Marois only found a wedge to drive within her own party? If she wins this election, will she have only given herself future headaches trying to head a fractious cabinet? And if she fails, or even wins just a minority, will inviting PKP only have served to open the door to a leadership challenge, painful both personally and to the party?
Clearly, Bob Rae hit a sensitive spot Friday morning. Otherwise, Marois would not have taken exception to his quip, and told him to "mind [his] own business."
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