Olympia Marie Wawryk, BC Liberal member and cat

Not kidding; Christy Clark campaign.

Whenever there are leadership campaigns in a party, signing up members for support is very important. However, as the above article demonstrates, there are serious problems that can arise. However, the most serious problem for the party might not be the possibility of fraud, but the public message it conveys. To sign up people who actually support you is one thing, to sign up friends and family just because they are is another, but to sign up a cat...conveys the message that there is nobody left in the province who wants to support the party, and that is definitely in the party's best interests. Of course, so is having the party turn onto itself over this sort of triviality. Obviously, this is a win-win situation - if you are the editor in chief of a major newspaper.

The thing is, this wasn't the only incident. Kevin Falcon's team signed up an entire hockey team...without the team knowing it. Surprised? It doesn't end there. A family managed to be signed up by the Liberals without even knowing it. Nobody has claimed responsibility for this last one yet, but I'm sure someone will find out soon.

In addressing bogus memberships, it is imperative to also explore memberships for all the wrong reasons. Once again the BC Liberals have graced us: a restaurant owner supporting the Liberals recently began (then ended after realizing it was a mistake) a program to reward his employees with an iPad if they signed up 25 new members.

40 years and counting

What with the revolution in Tunisia and continued uprisings across the Arab world, most prominently Egypt, this is a good time to talk about the apparent demise of another one-party state, and this one's quite close to home. That's right, I'm talking Alberta. Of course, Alberta isn't truly a one-party state since it has free elections and all, but given the way the last 11 elections have gone...it might as well be one. It has often been said that you could run a fence post as a Progressive Conservative in Alberta, and it would win. That's true enough, or at least, it used to be.

Since 1971, Alberta has been run by the PCs. Yes, it has been 40 years, beating out the likes of Iraq and Egypt, and given a few more years they'll take on East Germany. This may not be the norm in other democracies, but in Alberta it's quite standard. In their 106-year history, Albertans have changed governing parties a whopping 3 times.

However, lately, there have been signs of fracture in the dynasty. Ed Stelmach was highly disliked as premier, and was recently forced to announce his resignation. Finance Minister Ted Morton, who has always been at odds with Premier Stelmach, also resigned to take the top job. Now, normally, this sort of party fratricide would not be a good thing in terms of PR, and for once, in Alberta, there is no exception.

Logically, when a government is viewed as tired, and when there is an appetite for change in the Canadian political scene, a Conservative government will give way to a Liberal one. Not so in Alberta. The name "Liberal" is so poisonous in Alberta that, for whatever lopsided reason, the newest political force is a party even more conservative than the PCs - the Wildrose Alliance. Now at first sight this is impossible. However, when you consider the fact that this is Alberta, it's not so absurd. After all, these are the folks who brought us the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers.

Why are the Wildrose Alliance such a threat to the PCs? They have a likeable leader, they're a sensational breath of fresh air, and they have 4 MLAs. To put that into perspective, the PCs themselves have 67 and the Liberals, the collection of unelectables of Alberta, have 8. But, for some reason, the PCs feel they have cause to panic. Not that that's a bad thing. When governments panic, they do things. Often times it's too little too late, but still better than nothing, as is usually the case.

Anyways, the bottom line is, 40 years is a long time, and it was about time Albertan politics got interesting again. Cherish it, because it likely won't happen again for another generation...or maybe two.

Politically Uncorrect

I thought it was time to finally post something that was related to this blog's namesake, even though I did not name this blog for this purpose.

I recently came across a comic that satirizes very well the absurdity that political correctness has gone to:
This was based on people actually trying to amend a classic such as Huckleberry Finn. Honestly, some people just need to take a chill pill. The book was written 125 years ago. That was the culture of the day, and the spirit of the book necessitates that it be preserved in its original form. Schools are not condoning or promoting the use of racist language just because they are teaching this book; get a grip! If you're so offended, then don't read the book. Really, your loss.

Also, look, we all realize the merits of multiculturalism and tolerance. However, just because I say "Merry Christmas" does not mean the whole world is going to go up in flames. There is nothing wrong with a Christian wishing someone Merry Christmas. Even if the person on the receiving end is a Jew, normal people can understand the good intent behind the wish. He can say Happy Hanukkah back, for that fact, and the world will go on. Time does not stop, mountains do not fall, oceans do not dry up. If you're going to wish me "Happy Holidays," go ahead, you're most welcome, and I'll be very happy. Just don't try to stop me from saying Christmas, because that will be intolerance on YOUR behalf.

Seriously, this has gotten to the degree where literally everything that is said in public has to go through some sort of rigorous testing. I understand that free speech is a liberty only intended for expression of valid, non-hate-inducing ideas. However, I also understand that free speech was a right that our fathers fought life and limb for and won; and at this rate, we're snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

And no, I'm not bowing down to that "s/he" nonsense. Sue me. Written work has used "he" as the non-gender-specific pronoun for ages. It's out of habit; not all of us are male chauvinist pigs.

Resignation season continues

Carole James resigned as leader today, as the BC NDP saga continues. Last week, prominent NDP MLA Jenny Kwan lashed out at James publicly, becoming the voice of the so-called "Baker's Dozen" who opposed James' leadership. Knowing that firing Kwan meant firing all 13 of them, James called an emergency caucus meeting for Sunday. Sunday came around, and the meeting got postponed for "private discussions." Turns out that meant James was writing her resignation speech.

Such a display of public in-fighting is rare in a system where the party is supreme and discipline is strictly enforced. Disunity goes down very badly with the public, and the Liberals are clearly trying to take advantage, saying that if the NDP can't even oppose properly, they can't govern either. As SFU political scientist Kennedy Stewart put it, "The Liberals were essentially in self-destruct mode, and the NDP out-self-destructed the Liberals."

The resignation of James might not be a bad thing for the NDP, in the long run, but for the near future the damage is obvious. James was never popular though, and if the NDP manages to elect a centrist, practical, charismatic leader, they will certainly recover. However, the NDP's problem is accentuated in that none seem to be in the cards.

The Liberal leadership race, however, is starting to see some credible hopefuls line up, to the likes of Abbott, Falcon, and now maybe even Christy Clark. It's no wonder that talent is showing up on the Liberal front. Add the NDP's internal warfare to a recent Mustel Group poll which placed the Liberals just 5 points behind the NDP, and suddenly the Liberal leadership looks much more appealing.

By-election eve projections

Tomorrow is by-election night in 3 ridings, so I'll cut right to the chase.

1. Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette (MN):
A thoroughly safe Conservative seat; not much doubt about a Tory victory. It's a race for second place, and if the Liberals can make up that 2.7% gap with the NDP it will serve as a morale boost for Team Iggy. Conservative HOLD.

2. Winnipeg North (MN):
An equally safe seat for the NDP, but second place is safe for the Tories here. The Liberals and the Greens could conceivably fight for third if the Greens have a successful "Get Out The Vote" operation. New Democratic HOLD.

3. Vaughan (ON):
This, at least according to the media, is the race to watch tomorrow. Looking at past vote, this seat should be safe Liberal, but the Conservatives snatched popular former police chief Julian Fantino, and for all intents and purposes this is now anybody's game. The Greens and the NDP will fight for third, but once again only if the Greens have a successful GOTV. Either the Liberals or the Conservatives will place first or second, +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. However, since I have to make a projection, Liberal HOLD.

The Koreas

As most of you may know, North Korea attacked a South Korean island without reason yesterday. South Korea was understandably panicked. Other countries' reactions were more perplexing. The Swiss stressed their neutrality, the French tried to surrender, the United States started to behave like that upset autistic kid in third grade, China voiced its "extreme displeasure" (they love that term and have expressed it at least 20 times this year), citizens in Hong Kong staged a protest, and Iran called for the destruction of Israel.

Clearly, nations do not base decisions and reactions upon the Word of God. However, in the irony of ironies, they help to fulfill its prophecies. Let us remember that Christ Himself said of the end of days in Matthew 24: 6-7a, "You will hear of wars and rumours of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom."

And so, let us all take a step back, take a deep breath, and stop worrying about impending doom and nuclear war. At least...until the USA and China enter this conflict...on opposite sides.

BC Party dissent, a couple provincial polls, and final by-election projections

Last week was not a good week for either major BC political party. The BC Liberals had to fire Energy Minister Bill Bennett after publicly lambasting Premier Gordon Campbell and the NDP caucus whip Katrine Conroy quit by saying that she no longer believes Carole James can lead. Ms. Conroy has a point, and generally most of BC agrees with her. While they hate the Liberals, polls also show they don't like Carole James.

Also, since Bill Bennett has always been somewhat of a loose cannon, the NDP story became much more focused on and it seemed to do its damage. The most recent Mustel poll shows the gap between the NDP and Liberals is now only 5 points: 42 over 37. That's still an NDP majority, but it's much closer than what recent polls have been showing. The Greens are at 10, the Conservatives at 9, and others garner 3% of the vote.

Onto the next provincial poll, Ipsos Reid graced us with numbers for Ontario. Dalton McGuinty's Liberals have dug themselves into a 41-32 hole against the PCs. The NDP is at a strong 20, and the Greens have 7. Interestingly the PCs hold a 7 point lead in TORONTO, so even with 41% they should form a comfortable majority.

Finally, by-elections. Winnipeg North still looks NDP, Dauphin still looks Conservative, and Vaughan...is still a tossup, but I'll go out on a limb and predict a Liberal victory. It's 50/50 at best.